01/08/2017 Weather for the Week Ahead


01/08/2017

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Hello. This summer has delivered a huge variety of weather,

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at times hot, at others very wet.

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But in the past couple of weeks in particular you'd be forgiven

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for feeling short-changed.

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So what's gone wrong with our summer?

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Let's find some answers in the jet stream.

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Typically at this time of year we'd expect it to be north of the UK,

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closer to Iceland. Nothing against that country or its fine people

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but the jet stream should be nearer there than here.

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Here, beneath the jet stream, we'd expect the Azores High

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to build in, giving us some settled summer warmth.

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What's actually happened in the past couple of weeks is the jet stream

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has been unusually far south,

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allowing low pressure systems to

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ride along it

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and come right across the UK,

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giving us the wet weather at times

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and keeping it rather cool.

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So our summer recently has been in brief moments,

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as we saw on Monday in-between the showers.

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In Kent and in Merseyside some pleasant blue sky but you really

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know about it when the showers come in - cool, heavy rain, gusty winds.

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It's a similar picture on Tuesday.

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Some of us will start with lovely sunshine,

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just don't expect it to last very long,

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with low pressure close by on the jet stream

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and the showers getting going.

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From the word go on Tuesday morning,

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some in southern Scotland, northwest England,

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Wales seeing some heavy downpours,

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and they're all pushing further east during the day,

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some heavy, thundery ones with hail.

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Maybe some along the south coast of England,

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the far southeast will avoid them

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but for some places that didn't get a shower

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on Monday the chance is greater on Tuesday.

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For most parts temperatures in the teens,

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just a few into the low 20s.

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Going into Wednesday, slightly different.

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Low pressure's coming in again on the jet stream

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but is producing rain rather than showers.

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And that rain moving in to Wales, western England,

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to Northern Ireland through the day but takes

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a while to get there to much of Scotland and eastern England.

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So actually ahead of the rain, without any showers,

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it'll be a better day for some of us.

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But eventually that rain will move on through

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late Wednesday into Wednesday night

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as the low pressure comes right across the UK.

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The winds pick up,

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particularly on the southern flank of the low pressure,

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so really on Thursday quite a blustery day,

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plenty of showers around but most frequent

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towards the north and west,

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not too many reaching East Anglia and southeast England.

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This is why here we're seeing the higher temperatures

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more in the way of sunny spells.

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Bit of a change of wind direction for Friday,

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around the low pressure, starting to pull away,

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just more of a west-north-westerly

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towards the northwest of the UK.

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So to add insult to injury on Friday,

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there are still the showers around here

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but the temperatures have come down a few degrees and again

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most of the showers still hitting the north and west of the UK,

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as they will be in the start of the weekend

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because this is still predominantly a westerly breeze,

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so the further east you are,

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particularly across England,

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the fewer showers you will see.

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These temperatures very un-summer like on Saturday.

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Won't be much better on Sunday.

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The jet stream, this is

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the forecast for it on Sunday.

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Still taking that southern track and

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it's still carrying weather systems.

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This next one poised to come in

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later on Sunday into the start

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of next week.

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But later next week there are signs

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that that Azores High pressure

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is going to make an attempt to build

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northwards across the UK,

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bringing something more settled,

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but how far it comes,

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how many of us will feel the

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influence is still open to question

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before it gets squeezed south again

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by the return of low pressure.

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But it looks like we're setting up

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a north-south split later next week.

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The closer you are to low pressure,

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northern parts of the UK more unsettled,

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the closer you are to high pressure,

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southern areas more settled.

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But no widespread summer warmth yet.

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But last year our highest temperature came in September,

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so don't lose hope yet.

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