22/08/2017 Weather for the Week Ahead

Hello. Except for Scotland, there's a bank holiday weekend looming.

Is it straightforward? Of course it's not, it's the weather.

More on that in a moment.

Monday was a beautiful day

in the south-west. It was pleasantly warm,

highs of 24 degrees,

because sandwiched in between

these two weather fronts

is known as a broad warm sector,

a lot of humid air across us at the moment,

but things are set to change.

But for the bulk of today,

there'll be a little bit of showery rain easing out of Scotland,

and more persistent, heavier rain

as that cold front starts to move

in through Northern Ireland

and the Isle of Man, but elsewhere,

we should see some decent spells of sunshine,

widely, temperatures in the mid-20s,

maybe even higher if we get more in the way of sun.

That front will start to make its presence felt,

it'll bring rain, some of it heavy,

out of Northern Ireland into western Scotland through the night.

Further south, it stays relatively quiet,

quite cloudy and still relatively mild,

fresher air starting to show its hand across Northern Ireland.

So as we move into Wednesday, we've still got that front to clear,

quite breezy with it as well.

It'll bring patchy rain down through the Peaks and Pennines,

the south-east clinging onto some sunshine and some warmth,

but fresher air behind, despite some decent sunny spells.

We're looking at highs of 16 to 20 degrees, maybe 23 or 24

in the south-east corner.

As we move into Thursday,

the story is this area of low pressure, which anchors itself

off to the north-west. It'll be quite breezy with it,

and that's going to enhance the showers or longer spells of rain

through Northern Ireland and, at times, north-west Scotland

and England. Elsewhere, we will see some decent dry weather,

and still with the south-westerly flow,

it's not going to be too bad, in terms of the feel of things,

but we've lost the humidity.

16 to 18 degrees in the north, highs of perhaps 22 in the south-east.

Similar story into Friday, really.

That area of low pressure is slowly drifting eastwards,

could see a few more sharper showers developing,

but largely fine and dry in the south.

The low sits to the North Sea,

just this little weather front enhancing the risk of showers

for the first day of the bank holiday weekend

for Northern Ireland, England and Wales,

looks as though, for many of us, a good deal of dry weather.

There is a level of uncertainty just where those showers will sit,

but if you dodge the showers, you keep the sun,

you could see highs of 23.

This is when it starts to get

that little more complicated.

It's because of the jet stream,

as always. There's a significant

kink in the jet stream for Saturday

and that is going to allow

that area of low pressure to drift

away but we need to keep a close eye

on this low and where it'll sit.

Eventually, we'll see a mini low

develop down to the south,

and that'll allow the jet stream

to re-establish itself with

the main source of the jet stream

across the far north of the UK.

Then the question is just where

this low and the high will sit.

It looks likely that, into bank holiday Monday,

the low pressure will drift

to the north of the UK, and the high

establish itself to the south.

Exactly where those cut-off points -

still open to question,

and that will influence the weather story.

Further ahead, it looks as though we will continue to see

plenty of showers, often breezy,

and the driest of the weather is always likely to be in the south.

Still a lot to play for.

Yes, it's going to change. I'll have more details.