23/08/2017 Weather for the Week Ahead

Hello, there. There is a bank holiday weekend

just around the corner.

I wish I could stand here and tell you it was going to be glorious -

in fact, we really need Tuesday's weather,

because just take a look at Cornwall.

A beautiful day -

25 degrees, 77 Fahrenheit.

Not quite the case on Tuesday, though,

in Northern Ireland.

In Fermanagh we had rain so intense

it was bouncing off the roofs of the cars,

as you can see, by that beautiful Weather Watchers' picture -

and that rain is still going to be with us

across the far north for much of Wednesday.

Moving its way in from West to East,

there'll be some heavier bursts

as it moves through Scotland

and across the far north of England.

A band of cloud, really, through the Midlands,

and not really making much impression

across the south-east corner.

Behind it, fresher conditions,

with a scattering of showers,

19 to 20 degrees,

but we could see quite a humid feel, again,

in the south-east, with highs of 24.

As we move out of Wednesday,

it looks as though things will quieten down.

That frontal system gradually moves off into the Northern Isles.

Still some heavy rain here,

and a scattering of showers

to the north and west.

Not quite as humid a night,

12 to 14 degrees, perhaps,

quite widely across the country -

and, on Thursday, it will be a quieter day for most of us.

The exception, though,

still with an area of low pressure,

out in the north-west,

feeding in some showers on south-westerly flow

through Northern Ireland and Western Scotland.

Highs here of 17 to 18 degrees.

Decent spells of sunshine, perhaps,

in the south-east - 22 the high here.

Now, as we move into Friday,

we are still likely to see some outbreaks of showers

across Northern Ireland,

and maybe into Western Scotland,

but there will be some decent sunshine elsewhere,

and temperatures, again, will respond -

perhaps a degree or so higher.

In the south-east on Friday afternoon

we could see temperatures peaking at 24 degrees.

Remember these showers

up into the far north-west, here,

17 degrees,

and they could be a little bit of a nuisance

as we start the weekend.

There is still a level of uncertainty

as we move into the bank holiday weekend,

but it does look as though there is the potential

for that little weather front

to increase the risk of some showers

across the far south and east.

Why the level of uncertainty?

Well, the jet stream at the moment

is doing this significant kink

down to the west of the UK,

and when we see the jet stream in this position,

computer models tend to struggle with getting the detail -

and it looks, on Saturday, at the moment,

as though there's still the potential

for some sharp showers likely

into the south-east corner.

A drier story further north and west,

but it could still be quite warm,

so, some of those showers could be heavy

with rumbles of thunder -

but, by the time we move out of Saturday,

the jet stream almost splits in two,

and we see this little area of low pressure

forming down to the south -

but it reinvigorates itself across the UK,

and that means that things

could become a little more unsettled,

particularly into the far north-west,

with another area of low pressure

close off the shores here.

So, as we move into Sunday,

there is the potential for some wetter and windier weather

into the extreme north-west,

still the risk of some showers further south,

but there is a great deal of uncertainty

about the detail in Sunday's forecast.

If you've got outdoor plans,

do not make this the last forecast

that you're going to watch -

and that uncertainty actually continues

into the bank holiday Monday.

It looks as though the driest of the weather

will be in the south, the wettest in the north,

and this pattern sets us up

into the longer term period,

with high-pressure dominating

down to the south, potentially -

it stays low pressure to the north,

and that means we could continue

to see showers or strong winds at times.

Take care.