04/09/2017 Weather for the Week Ahead

For the next ten days, all our weather is going to be coming in

from the Atlantic, so don't expect anything dry, warm and sunny.

At the moment, things are fairly slow-moving.

We've got this weather front which has brought cloud

and rain earlier on, it's just dying out there in situ.

Bumping into the back of that, this next active weather front

approaching from the Atlantic.

It's going to bring some rain into the north-west.

The rain could clear away from Northern Ireland

later on Monday but it sets in in Scotland.

England and Wales, after a warm but grey, misty, murky start,

may brighten up a touch, still be a few drizzly showers

and even with the cloud, 20 degrees, but get a burst of sunshine,

22 or 23 - we've got some warm air.

But remember, we still have some rain.

It may ease off for a while but then it comes back in again

from the south-west approaches.

Some heavier rain overnight developing perhaps in Wales,

northern England, perhaps into southern Scotland.

South of that, in the warm air, overnight lows perhaps 17 degrees.

Here's the weather front bringing the rain

and it's got a bit of wave on it,

hence the stalling of the movement of the weather front

and the band of rain, and hence the heavier rain overnight,

which moves away from northern England in the morning

out into the north Sea,

but there'll still be some bursts of rain to

sweep across the Midlands into the south-east and we're not sure

how quickly that will clear away from south-eastern areas on Tuesday.

Otherwise, a change to fresher conditions, cleaner air,

some sunshine and perhaps a few showers towards the north-west.

And then for the middle part of the week,

we can trace our weather all the way back to the other

side of the Atlantic, these tram lines coming across from west

to east, heading right the way to the UK.

So a broad westerly airflow, westerly winds, some sunshine,

maybe some showers, quite a lot of cloud, I suspect,

the bulk of the showers out towards the west

and the north-west of the UK.

And these are the temperatures - 16, perhaps 17 in the north,

20 in the south-east, and those numbers are about average,

really, for this time of the year,

and we'll see those temperatures over the coming few days.

Still got that westerly airflow as we move into Thursday.

Perhaps fewer isobars, not quite as windy,

but again a fair bit of cloud around, some sunshine at times.

Again the risk of a few showers before we see some wetter,

windier weather arriving in the far north-west later on in the day.

And we look towards the north with an area of low pressure

between Scotland and Iceland,

and this weather front is moving south into the UK.

It's a frontogenetic weather front,

which means it's becoming more active, essentially,

the rain becoming heavier,

becoming broader as it sweeps its way down across the UK,

so we're all going to get a spell of wet and windy weather.

A disappointing time for much of the day on Friday.

Now, if we look back at the middle part of the week,

I talked about that westerly airflow -

this is the position of the jet stream.

Lower pressure to the north, higher pressure trying to

build in to the south but maintaining that westerly airflow.

Position of the jet stream crucial, of course,

as we know from the summer experience.

And over the weekend we're going to find that jet stream

a bit further south, so we're more likely

to have lower pressure across the UK.

And it could be quite a deep area of low pressure as well,

so perhaps into next weekend, prospects not so good -

it looks like it could be quite wet and also rather windy as well.

And further ahead,

we keep this very changeable theme going with more weather fronts,

more areas of low pressure approaching from the Atlantic.

A little sunshine, perhaps, but dare I say it?

Yes, I'm going to say it - it's going to feel autumnal.

No signs of any changes, really, over the coming few days.