08/09/2017 Weather for the Week Ahead

Hello. The Atlantic hurricane season has really made us sit up

and take notice in the past couple of weeks,

and now there are three hurricanes out there at once.

In the Gulf of Mexico, Katia heading towards Mexico.

We know about Irma, storming through the Caribbean

and, behind that, Jose.

And, again, for Barbuda and Antigua,

there are hurricane watches in force for this coming weekend.

Now, a long way from our shores,

but these systems are having an influence

on our longer-range forecast

by injecting a greater degree of uncertainty.

Why? Because the computers that come up with the forecasts

don't handle these systems very well -

particularly once they are no longer hurricanes,

the energy from them and how that may possibly feed in

to the wider Atlantic weather patterns.

So there is an idea about what's going to happen

in our longer-range forecast,

but there are bigger question marks than usual

because of these weather systems, as we'll see.

No great question marks, though, about Friday's weather.

Clearly, low pressure in control.

You can see the centre of it just close to northern Scotland.

More isobars around that,

so Friday a windier day for the UK compared with Thursday,

and some wet weather around.

Southern England will see rain at times, though not all the time.

Another spell of rain targeting parts of Wales, the Midlands,

into East Anglia as the afternoon goes on.

For Northern England, for Scotland, for Northern Ireland,

it's sunny spells and showers - some heavy, possibly thundery with hail.

In some sunshine, may not feel too bad.

In a shower, with the wind, decidedly cool.

And as this low-pressure system pulls away

into the start of the weekend, the flow of air from the north

will indicate that cool feel to things will continue.

But some sunny spells around,

particularly across the eastern side of the UK.

Lighter winds here compared with the west.

So perhaps here, if you avoid a shower,

if you hold on to some sunny spells, even though it's 15, 16 degrees,

you may think it's a decent day.

Showers in the West, though, will still be quite heavy.

The gap between other systems on Saturday night

doesn't last very long, as another area of low pressure comes in

for part two of the weekend on Sunday,

bringing rain quite quickly into Scotland, Northern Ireland,

spreading a band of rain south-eastwards

across England and Wales.

Further showers following on behind

on what will be another blustery day.

And, in fact, Sunday night and into Monday,

it looks like the winds will pick up even more,

especially down towards the south-west of the UK, with gales,

a lower risk of severe gales, but with maybe some impact,

so we'll keep monitoring that for you.

But be aware - Sunday night into Monday looks quite windy.

Blustery elsewhere with another day on Monday

of sunshine and showers, some heavy.

A ridge of high pressure is trying to build in

as we go from Monday into Tuesday -

still on the cool side, still be some showers, especially initially,

lasting longest down the eastern side of the UK on Tuesday,

whereas in the west it turns drier

before we see another area of low pressure coming in.

Some uncertainty about the timing of this system,

exactly where it will be,

but here's an idea of how maybe Wednesday will play out,

with low pressure spreading rain eastwards, and quite windy again.

Then it looks like, towards the end of the week

and into the following weekend,

high pressure will begin to build more across the Atlantic.

Now, if that happens, it disrupts the weather pattern

we're having now of low after low after low,

and we get longer gaps between those areas of low pressure,

which means longer spells of fine, settled weather.

So the indication by next weekend, into the following week -

there will be days like this,

overnight there could be some fog around, maybe a touch of frost,

particularly across northern parts of the UK, with chilly nights.

But remember those weather systems,

those three hurricanes injecting uncertainty

into the longer-range forecast -

it may yet play out quite differently.

We'll keep you updated.