08/09/2017 Weather for the Week Ahead


08/09/2017

Detailed weather forecast.


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Hello. The Atlantic hurricane season has really made us sit up

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and take notice in the past couple of weeks,

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and now there are three hurricanes out there at once.

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In the Gulf of Mexico, Katia heading towards Mexico.

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We know about Irma, storming through the Caribbean

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and, behind that, Jose.

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And, again, for Barbuda and Antigua,

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there are hurricane watches in force for this coming weekend.

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Now, a long way from our shores,

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but these systems are having an influence

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on our longer-range forecast

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by injecting a greater degree of uncertainty.

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Why? Because the computers that come up with the forecasts

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don't handle these systems very well -

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particularly once they are no longer hurricanes,

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the energy from them and how that may possibly feed in

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to the wider Atlantic weather patterns.

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So there is an idea about what's going to happen

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in our longer-range forecast,

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but there are bigger question marks than usual

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because of these weather systems, as we'll see.

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No great question marks, though, about Friday's weather.

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Clearly, low pressure in control.

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You can see the centre of it just close to northern Scotland.

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More isobars around that,

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so Friday a windier day for the UK compared with Thursday,

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and some wet weather around.

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Southern England will see rain at times, though not all the time.

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Another spell of rain targeting parts of Wales, the Midlands,

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into East Anglia as the afternoon goes on.

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For Northern England, for Scotland, for Northern Ireland,

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it's sunny spells and showers - some heavy, possibly thundery with hail.

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In some sunshine, may not feel too bad.

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In a shower, with the wind, decidedly cool.

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And as this low-pressure system pulls away

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into the start of the weekend, the flow of air from the north

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will indicate that cool feel to things will continue.

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But some sunny spells around,

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particularly across the eastern side of the UK.

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Lighter winds here compared with the west.

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So perhaps here, if you avoid a shower,

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if you hold on to some sunny spells, even though it's 15, 16 degrees,

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you may think it's a decent day.

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Showers in the West, though, will still be quite heavy.

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The gap between other systems on Saturday night

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doesn't last very long, as another area of low pressure comes in

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for part two of the weekend on Sunday,

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bringing rain quite quickly into Scotland, Northern Ireland,

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spreading a band of rain south-eastwards

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across England and Wales.

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Further showers following on behind

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on what will be another blustery day.

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And, in fact, Sunday night and into Monday,

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it looks like the winds will pick up even more,

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especially down towards the south-west of the UK, with gales,

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a lower risk of severe gales, but with maybe some impact,

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so we'll keep monitoring that for you.

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But be aware - Sunday night into Monday looks quite windy.

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Blustery elsewhere with another day on Monday

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of sunshine and showers, some heavy.

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A ridge of high pressure is trying to build in

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as we go from Monday into Tuesday -

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still on the cool side, still be some showers, especially initially,

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lasting longest down the eastern side of the UK on Tuesday,

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whereas in the west it turns drier

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before we see another area of low pressure coming in.

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Some uncertainty about the timing of this system,

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exactly where it will be,

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but here's an idea of how maybe Wednesday will play out,

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with low pressure spreading rain eastwards, and quite windy again.

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Then it looks like, towards the end of the week

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and into the following weekend,

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high pressure will begin to build more across the Atlantic.

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Now, if that happens, it disrupts the weather pattern

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we're having now of low after low after low,

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and we get longer gaps between those areas of low pressure,

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which means longer spells of fine, settled weather.

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So the indication by next weekend, into the following week -

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there will be days like this,

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overnight there could be some fog around, maybe a touch of frost,

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particularly across northern parts of the UK, with chilly nights.

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But remember those weather systems,

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those three hurricanes injecting uncertainty

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into the longer-range forecast -

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it may yet play out quite differently.

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We'll keep you updated.

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