21/11/2017 Weather for the Week Ahead


21/11/2017

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Hello. Where our air is coming from governs to a large degree

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the sort of weather we get, but also the temperature,

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the feel of the weather.

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Now, for Monday there was a lot of cloud around

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but those areas that saw a bit of blue sky

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saw temperatures well above normal for the time of year -

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Cheshire up to 17 Celsius

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where 8 or 9 degrees is average for this stage of November.

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And the reason why - where the air is coming from,

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around low pressure, following the isobars all the way

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well to the south of the UK. Any time of year that is

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a warm direction. This is unusually mild air for the time

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of year. Spreading northwards, yet to reach into northern

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Scotland, but during Tuesday, even here temperatures will

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be heading up. It will be a wet day, mind you,

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but the snow we've had in the hills gradually turning

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back to rain.

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There is a lot of cloud with this moist flow of air

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from the south-west so, again, sunshine will be

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hard to come by but those areas that do see a few funny spells

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across parts of England and Wales may well end with temperatures

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higher than this, though we will see outbreaks of rain

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pushing in to parts of Wales and western England

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into the afternoon, feeding a little bit further south-east during

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Tuesday evening. Low pressure is in charge,

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plenty of weather fronts, the winds picking up as well.

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We are concerned going into Wednesday again in this

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flow of mild, moist air from the south-west, this wriggling

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weather front producing a bit of rain, especially into

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parts of north-west England during Wednesday, especially

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into Cumbria, Lancashire, 25-50ml possible, maybe up

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to 100 in the hills. Need to watch out for impact from that.

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The winds picking up and rain also across parts of Wales,

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western England, Northern Ireland and Scotland.

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But central and eastern parts of England staying

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mainly dry, getting a bit of sunshine, and again we

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could see 16 or 17 degrees.

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But look at this - going into Thursday there's a cold front

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moving southwards and we're changing the direction

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of the isobars more to a north, north-westerly direction.

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What does that mean? Well, colder air coming back in

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to Scotland and Northern Ireland but something drier and

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brighter with that flow of air, still perhaps mild

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for one more day across southern parts, with still some

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outbreaks of rain as that front pushes on through.

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So at the end of the week it looks like colder air is

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beginning to move its way southwards once again and as we go

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into the weekend it looks like it will have completed

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its journey southwards. It will be a brisk and chilly wind

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from the north, north-west. In that flow of air

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we've brightened things up, we get sunny spells

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but there will be some wintry showers

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and maybe something less cold from the Atlantic

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coming in right at the end of the weekend, at least

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into western parts.

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So the weekend looks like a cold start, probably cold throughout

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with frosty nights and a risk of wintry showers,

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but a hint of something a little less cold coming in from the

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Atlantic again, at least into western parts later in the weekend.

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And then into the following week,

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it looks like we are still battle zone Britain

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with milder Atlantic air fighting with this colder air from the north

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for supremacy and it looks like we're going to swing between the two

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as we go through the week.

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Now, when the colder air from the north, north-west comes in

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it will likely be brighter but of course colder and frosty

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and there will be a risk of wintry showers.

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In the milder spells, where the

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Atlantic pushes that air in from the west, we may see some rain at times.

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But even in the milder spells the Atlantic flow next week,

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it looks like it's not going to be as wet

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or as windy as it is at times this week, nor as mild.

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So 16, 17 Celsius,

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short-term offer.

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