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As ever we'll try to give you as much | 0:00:02 | 0:00:04 | |
detail as we can about the run-up to Christmas itself | 0:00:04 | 0:00:07 | |
and then later on in this show we'll have a look at some | 0:00:07 | 0:00:11 | |
of the trends we could expect to see | 0:00:11 | 0:00:13 | |
right through the Christmas period. | 0:00:13 | 0:00:14 | |
That's some way off. | 0:00:14 | 0:00:16 | |
Let's start with the detail and with a ridge of high pressure | 0:00:16 | 0:00:19 | |
dominating the scene in the first part of the week. | 0:00:19 | 0:00:23 | |
Certainly it will do us for Monday and Tuesday | 0:00:23 | 0:00:26 | |
but it doesn't come without its problems. | 0:00:26 | 0:00:28 | |
It's a decent enough day once we get rid of the early | 0:00:28 | 0:00:30 | |
frost across central and eastern parts. | 0:00:30 | 0:00:32 | |
Could be a bit of fog in the mix, some of that quite dense. | 0:00:32 | 0:00:35 | |
But that ridge not doing enough to keep | 0:00:35 | 0:00:37 | |
the fronts at bay from the far north of Scotland. | 0:00:37 | 0:00:39 | |
Milder here certainly but wet and windy. | 0:00:39 | 0:00:42 | |
Further south and east you've got some dry, | 0:00:42 | 0:00:44 | |
fine weather to be had but it's on the cool side and we maintain that | 0:00:44 | 0:00:47 | |
cool theme as we get on through the night between Monday and Tuesday. | 0:00:47 | 0:00:51 | |
But my real concern is not the temperatures, | 0:00:51 | 0:00:53 | |
it's the extent of the fog. | 0:00:53 | 0:00:55 | |
That's why even at this distance we're highlighting | 0:00:55 | 0:00:59 | |
a number of areas that could be very badly affected, | 0:00:59 | 0:01:01 | |
not just for the morning rush hour. | 0:01:01 | 0:01:03 | |
It is that time of year that once it forms on certain days it | 0:01:03 | 0:01:07 | |
just doesn't clear. | 0:01:07 | 0:01:09 | |
Mild enough across western exposures, | 0:01:09 | 0:01:10 | |
I don't think you'll see much fog here. | 0:01:10 | 0:01:12 | |
Some low cloud certainly and some drizzle as well. | 0:01:12 | 0:01:15 | |
Temperatures 11-12 but in the east particularly | 0:01:15 | 0:01:18 | |
if you hold on to that fog, which you could do all day, | 0:01:18 | 0:01:21 | |
five, six, seven degrees, maybe lower. | 0:01:21 | 0:01:25 | |
Come Wednesday we're just pushing this weather front down | 0:01:25 | 0:01:27 | |
and through that area of high pressure. | 0:01:27 | 0:01:29 | |
This will be the first, perhaps for some, | 0:01:29 | 0:01:31 | |
the only meaningful rain of the week. | 0:01:31 | 0:01:34 | |
Behind it the skies begin to clear, Generally speaking, | 0:01:34 | 0:01:37 | |
because of the flow coming in from the west | 0:01:37 | 0:01:39 | |
and south-west it's another mild day for the time of year. | 0:01:39 | 0:01:42 | |
We've already highlighted a number of themes that we'll see | 0:01:42 | 0:01:45 | |
repeated through the week. It will be mainly dry but cloudy. | 0:01:45 | 0:01:48 | |
Always mildest out towards the west. | 0:01:48 | 0:01:50 | |
But please remember some of those mornings and on into the afternoon | 0:01:50 | 0:01:54 | |
in a number of locations that fog could be really dense and linger. | 0:01:54 | 0:01:58 | |
Same weather front dragging its way slowly into the southern | 0:01:58 | 0:02:03 | |
portion of the British Isles as we start the second half of the week. | 0:02:03 | 0:02:06 | |
Pretty dank, miserable affair here I'm afraid. | 0:02:06 | 0:02:09 | |
Further north a chance of brightness. | 0:02:09 | 0:02:11 | |
Could be a chilly start for some. | 0:02:11 | 0:02:12 | |
Maybe a little mist and fog returning as well. | 0:02:12 | 0:02:15 | |
Single figure temperatures here quite widely. | 0:02:15 | 0:02:17 | |
Across the south, yes, still relatively mild | 0:02:17 | 0:02:20 | |
but little in the way of sunshine until we push that front away. | 0:02:20 | 0:02:24 | |
Build in the high pressure gives a settled look to Friday | 0:02:24 | 0:02:27 | |
but fronts trying to get | 0:02:27 | 0:02:29 | |
into the west on a noticeable west to | 0:02:29 | 0:02:31 | |
south-westerly breeze. Keeping it mild. | 0:02:31 | 0:02:34 | |
Here we go towards the weekend and into the Christmas period itself. | 0:02:35 | 0:02:40 | |
We suspect the most likely set-up is this one. | 0:02:40 | 0:02:43 | |
High pressure trying to hang on down towards the south. | 0:02:43 | 0:02:46 | |
But an area of low pressure further north could generate a mild | 0:02:46 | 0:02:49 | |
south-westerly flow. | 0:02:49 | 0:02:50 | |
That's if we keep the low pressures for the most part away | 0:02:50 | 0:02:54 | |
towards the north-western quarter of the British Isles. | 0:02:54 | 0:02:57 | |
But should it slip away towards the north-east, | 0:02:57 | 0:03:00 | |
that will allow us to end up on the western flank, particularly on the | 0:03:00 | 0:03:03 | |
northern half of the British Isles of that low pressure | 0:03:03 | 0:03:06 | |
and that allows a feed of relatively cold air to | 0:03:06 | 0:03:09 | |
get into the northern parts of the British Isles. | 0:03:09 | 0:03:11 | |
So we have two likely scenarios to take us through the weekend | 0:03:11 | 0:03:15 | |
before Christmas, through Christmas Day and into the rest of the week. | 0:03:15 | 0:03:20 | |
Most likely mild, it could turn briefly colder in the north. | 0:03:20 | 0:03:23 | |
Some of those lows could be quite vigorous | 0:03:23 | 0:03:25 | |
so it could turn for some really wet and windy. | 0:03:25 | 0:03:28 |