Welsh Floods: The Damming Truth Week In Week Out

Wales has been hit by a summer of flash floods. It took three months

to draw it out properly. Mid-thigh height. Homes and businesses ruined.

The odds are there is more of this to come. So the bad news in terms

of flooding it can only get considerably worse. Are we making

matters worse, where we build? a disastrous policy to build on

flood plains, why don't you stop? Who will pick up the bill if

insurers pull the plug? The only way to get insurance is maybe to go

Hardly a day seems to have gone by without rain. But for some

communities, it's been even worse, having to deal with the devastating

consequences of flooding, as they know only too clearly in Mid Wales.

Devastated, shocked. I've just decorated it all and had new carpet.

People who've lived here for years, say they've never seen anything

like it. It's getting worse, not better at the moment. It's

overwhelmed three cottages coming right through. That's my car half

under water in the front garden. I'm just exhausted, you know,

Out the back here, this is where the water was cascading over, like

a water fall. It brought the wall down either side. It's lucky the

wall never caved in when anyone was walking along here. I dread to

think what would have happened, the weight of it. Do you find that

unnerving to see that and reflect on that? I heard it go. There was a

horrible thump and a thud and the whole of the building shook. I

could have still be in that bed or the whole house could have been

inundated. Yeah, I feel sorry for people who've come off worse than

me. Mike was lucky to get out. Next door, Beverley Jones and her five-

year-old daughter almost didn't. The water level was a couple of

feet up. There was also water in the house at this point. You were

on the inside? Yes, I was. Pulling on the door, not getting anywhere?

No. Was that frightening? It was. Especially when I heard the thud

and the bang that the retaining wall out the back made. There was a

fireman trying to get into the kitchen window. But it's very small,

so he couldn't get in. There were three firemen stood outside. They

managed to open the door and with that the gush of twhaurt came in

was incredible. Due feel as if your life was at risk at that point?

did. Within an hour, people living in these cottages saw their homes

ruined. They weren't alone. In total a thousand people across Mid

Wales were affected. Winching in. Steady there.

The news cameras have gone, but for those affected, the story is far

from over. They all want to know why they were hit so hard by floods

The people of Ceredigion might think they've been very unlucky,

after all more than a month's rain fell in one day and that's not

supposed to happen. It was an unprecedented event, a freak, no-

one could remember anything like it. The truth is that it fits into a

worrying trend. I'm talking about climate change and one of the

world's leading experts lives just around the corner. Sir John

Houghton chaired the international panel on change. It drafted its

first ground-breaking reports, warnings accepted by governments

worldwide. His message today remains stark. Some people in the

political world seem unwilling to accept how bad it is likely to be.

They should look at our documents. They should look at the IPCC's work.

Nearly everything that we've said, things are in the upper side of the

estimates that we made. The rain will tend to come down in bigger

dollops with more intensity. The likelihood is by the middle of the

century on average around the globe, an increase in the risk of floods

and droughts of the order of a factor of five. That's a very large

number. The odds are shortening and The Environment Agency too have

some startling predictions about the effect of climate change and

development on the numbers at high risk in Wales. They're predicting

by the end of the century Newport will see numbers at risk of

flooding double from 6,000 to 12,000 in. Cardiff, from a couple

of hundred to 4,000 plus. Even inland, the towns of Risca and

Ystwyth Medical Centre, the risk will triple. Swansea will also see

numbers almost double. Llanelli and Port Talbot are already with

thousands of homes at risks in. North Wales, Rhyl will see numbers

jumping from 3,500 to 5,000. Overall, numbers of properties at

risk in Wales will double. That's just those that are most at risk.

It might be all too easy to think it's only those people who live

close to rivers or in low lying coastal areas that have a problem,

but the Environment Agency has told us that in Wales, 600,000 people,

that's one in five of us, live in properties that are vulnerable to

flooding. With climate change threatening to put more at risk,

the issue is concentrating the minds of those who are trying to

keep us safe. This summer, we've seen a great deal of rainfall, you

know the highest on record, so flooding has been a challenge for

us this year. I think we need to be prepared for it as a challenge in

the future. Our main lounge. As you can see, it's a bit of a state at

the moment. Local Councillor Gareth Davies is rebuilding his house. He

and his neighbours on the outskirts of Aberystwyth saw their homes

flooded for the first time. I have doubts as to the wisdom of

developing on flood plains. We've seen from areas of Aberystwyth that

if you build on a natural flood plain, then that water has to go

somewhere else. Flood water normally runs into the field

opposite. He believes the increasing development in the area

is putting his property at greater risk. Things may even get worse.

There are discussions taking place at the moment, as I understand,

with a developer of buying all these fields up here as residential

homes. In a word, what would you think of that? Madness. Salute

madness. You have to question the future of any such development, to

be honest, not only in this field here, but further down the valley

as well. You know, I can show you photos of 30, 40 years ago. It was

even under water then. An aerial view of the area shows just how

much the town's flood plain has changed. In the 70s this is still

an area of green fields. Today, some of the fields are still there,

but so are developments of housing, offices and shops. Professor Mark

Macklynis is an expert on river flows at the internationally

aclaimed earth studies department at Aberystwyth. He has released a

report into why the recent floods were so devastating and one reason

stands out. We've got the flood plain map in 1906, showing the

urban areas in grey. We can pack out Llanbadarn Fawr. And the blue?

That's the Environment Agency's 100 year flood limits. This is where

it's likely to flood. Exactly. Let's bring it to the modern day.

This is the situation in the present, exactly the same scale.

can see the blue area is full of development. It is. Unfortunately.

Both in terms of new housing, supermarkets, and also the

industrial estate as well. Should they be there? In my view, no.

They're exposing folk to increased flood risk in a way that shouldn't

be the case. What is the consequence of building on a flood

plain? The consequence, as you clearly see here, is that the

people who live here is exposed to greater flood risk. A consequence

of that development itself actually changes the flood risk both up and

down stream. So there's actually a two-fold effect. The surgery

remains closed after it was submerged on Saturday. The doctors

and nurses have relocated to another site. I got a phone call

from the practice manager saying you have to get to the surgery now.

I came down here with my husband to be met with a scene of devastation.

This GP Medical Centre is in the middle of that flood plain

development. It's so severely damaged that it can't be re-

occupied until February next year. When a development like this is

being considered, we think the people who know, the people with

the expertise in flooding, in planning etc will take these things

into account. We perhaps believed too readily their judgments,

without actually considering the sort of more simple facts of this

was a flood plain and it's acted as a flood plane as a millennia and to

build on it will have consequences. Approval for building here on flood

plains came from the local Council. Their offices are just across the

road from the GP surgery. It's all too tempting, if you can create

jobs, if you can build communities to just turn a blind eye, on the

basis that, well, it may not happen for another 100 years, so let's go

ahead and do it any way. I hope it doesn't happen for another 100

years. Buff I take your point. The trouble is, quite often in rural,

hilly areas, mountainous areas like Wales, quite often the only places

available to develop happen to be on valley floors. You're caught

between the devil and the deep blue sea. If you develop on the flood

plains you might well end up in the deep blue sea. That's really what

nobody wants. Exactly, I totally agree with you. It's a dilemma for

all councils. We need more housing, more offices, more business space

and even GPs surgeries. They have to go somewhere. In Scotland, they

have a firmer view on how much development their flood plains can

take. Here, the risk of building on flood plains was brought home

vividly 20 years ago by an event that happened in Perth. By morning,

the full extent of the flood damage could be seen. These are playing

fields. The tips of the goal posts just visible. David Crichton is one

of the leading authorities on flood risk insurance. Where did the water

come to? The top of the door, about two experts. He and other experts

were asked to find ways of minimising the risk of flooding.

The groups of people involving insurers, property developers and

planners came together and said, this is silly, it's crazy to

continue building in flood risk areas, let's just stop it. The

property developers were not very happy. But faced with the

onslaught,if you like, of the planners, worried about their

liabilities and ensurers worried about the high risk, they

eventually stopped. I think the compassion overcomes the desire for

economic growth. Along with the damage that flooding brings, there

is also personal trauma. Beverley and her daughter survived the flood

in their house they share with their mother. This is your

environment and you feel safe, you know, whatever you choose or

wherever you choose your environment, you feel safe in that.

And it hit me like a brick wall. I went over to the doctors and you

know, and she said no, you've just experienced, this is the last straw

that broke the camel's back. Traumatic stress? Yes, I have 37

boxes of stuff, personal things that you've got that you've been

and put out with family or with friends. It's like a huge jigsaw

puzzle. You're very vulnerable because you have lost your

This was the lounge. There was carpet. I had a table and four

chairs there, three-piece suite. the corner? Yeah and Welsh dresser

in that corner, television, you know, a nice, I hadn't long

decorated in here. It had all just been o done. I'm looking forward to

getting back in me home, once it's all done up. But I will have a

certain amount of apprehension, you know, should another event like

this ever happen again. It does prey on your mind, obviously. I

wouldn't be telling the truth if I said otherwise. When the increasing

effects of flooding became all too clear, in 2004, the Welsh

Government decided to take action. It passed a new regulation,

technical advice note 15, or TAN15. It's planning guidance from the

Government which is trying to make sure that we're not adding to this

problem. A lot of development has taken place in the flood plain, but

going forward, we need to make sure we're not adding to that. It spells

out clearly that homes should not be built on flood plains. But Week

In Week Out has discovered that the new law seems to have had little

effect. When TAN15 came in half of applications sunted to the

Environment Agency in Wales were still given permission. The

following year that figure dropped as the new law hit home. By 2011,

development was once again just as likely to be given the go ahead as

before. In fact, since TAN15 was passed 745 schemes have been built

in flood risk areas. So what's changed? Well, it seems, that this

might have made a difference. It's a circular written by Carwyn Jones

when he was environment minister in Wales in 2006. It serves to clarify

the new law governing building on flood plains. It includes some

telling points for the Environment Agency in Wales. In one key

paragraph Mr Jones says he only expects the agency to object where

it is appropriate to do so in flood Risk Management terms. Rather than

as a matter of principle, therefore the Environment Agency may object

not will object. It's very carefully worded. It

appears, to me, to be telling the Environment Agency that they don't

need to object to new development on the grounds of flood risk.

What's your impression of such sentiments? I think it is

irresponsible. Mr Jones's letter appears to have hit home. Since

2006, the Environment Agency has been withdrawing outright

objections, allowing adapted schemes to go ahead. So have they

been warned off? I would refute that. As I say, we will provide our

expert flood risk advice to the local authority and if necessary,

we will object. Well, I put it to you that in 428 cases since you

received that letter, you were advised -- you revised your

objection. We looked to see whether or not the flood risk can be

managed. If it can be, then that means that the flood risk can be

avoided. Any sort of development on a flood plain is a seriously bad

idea, isn't it? I think that's taking a rather extreme view. The

sort of... Isn't that the point of TAN15? You need to look at the

exact type of risk that you're dealing with. You need to be able

to see whether or not you can actually manage that. But can that

risk be managed? Mick and Jennie We're both kind of watery based

people and like messing about with water. That's why we came to live

in this area, because of the hills, the rivers an the sea. We get

tremendous pleasure being in the environment and experiencing all

these things. That included buying an idyllic cottage in tolly bont,

complete with a river in the back - - Talybont, complete with a river

in the back garden. We talked about it and thought we might get flooded,

but I imagined two or three inches into the kitchen, not seven foot.

Yes, it was a major wake-up call. Do you worry about that, though?

Not particularly worry about it. Yeah. You do? I do, a bit. But I

think it's focused our minds in working out how we live in this

house in a different way. All our valuable stuff will be upstairs.

There are things we can do. I'm in discussion with the highways

department about the bridge, how to deal with the wall in front of the

house. All these things may lessen the effect of a flood.

community of Talybont is not alone in recognising the need to improve

its flood defences. These are often seen as the solution. Many flood

plains in Wales have them with millions being spent each year.

That gets jammed with rubbish. stream at Llanbadarn Fawr a meeting

organised by the Environment Agency is offering the community ideas and

a possible defence solution. But at what cost? Funding is an issue. The

Environment Agency have spoken about a cost of being about

�100,000, which is not a great deal of money when you take into account

the amount of insurance claims that have gone in. I would hope that

Government would fund the flooding defences that are needed to sort

our problem out. Of course, there is an issue of maintenance and that

is an issue that needs to be addressed and fairly quickly I

would suggest. The Environment Agency calculates that the money

they're already spending on defences will have to increase

three fold to meet future demand. All the agencies accept that's

unrealistic yet councils keep giving permission to build, even

against advice. Your Council has approved at least three other

schemes, Capel Bangor, Penrhyn Coch, 2010, 2008, 2008. You're going back

a few years now. I'm in the aware that those are huge developments.

In fact they are developments on flood plains, against the advice of

the Environment Agency. If they were, I'm very surprised. I'm Notts

a member of that committee. I don't know the detail of these. I

wouldn't be happy to see developments on flood plains now at

all. As we continue to build, the stakes are being raised. The

authorities say they accept that climate change is a reality, but is

the real level of risk being passed on to the public? There is a very

detailed flood map available on the Environment Agency's website. But

is it telling us what we need to know? How would it look if

Professor Houghton's prediction was factored in? If you talk of a

factor of five, then one in 200 becomes one in 40. Instead of

waiting 200 years for the next one, you wait 40. You have 50-year

periods, it's one in ten years. That's a scary story for all of us,

actually. If you include Professor Houghton's predictions this would

be the result in Aberystwyth. This is the current tidal flood plain

map for a one in 200 year event. But more extreme weather and a one

metre rise in sea levels would see it grow to this. Add in river

flooding, more people are going to be at risk more often. The website

also surprisingly doesn't include much data on historical floods. If

it did, it would be clear that the June floods were not as

unprecedented as claimed. The 24 hour rainfall was about 146mm,

that's only the sixth largest in the historical record in Wales. It

doesn't come even in the top 15 for the UK. We have probably larger

floods in the 1970s and 60s, but we didn't have the degree of

development. What do you make of mapping that goes on, the

Environment Agency will offer on their website, is it accurate?

precise, but probably not accurate. As the Ystwyth Medical Centre found

out. They were not listed on the map, so they didn't get a flood

warning. I don't know if they got a warning. No they didn't. They

weren't on a flood map. Since then they now are. Certainly in that

area, many properties will have received a flood warning. What are

those properties doing this in the first place? That, at the end of

the day, the development is decided through the planning process. It's

up to the local authority to decide whether or not developments goes

ahead. The Environment Agency advise - it's the Welsh Government

that draws up the rules. The minister in charge is John

Griffiths. It's a disastrous policy to build on flood plains, why don't

you stop it? We have a policy in place which does effectively stop

development on flood plains. Do you know why Ceredigion was so badly

flooded? It was an extreme weather event. Do you know about Professor

Mark Macklynis and advises your Government? I spoke to local

people... And told us that it's largely the flooding that took

place on that flood plain was as a result of the development that had

happened there? I spoke to local people who were aged over 80 years

of age, who told me that they've never experienced flooding as they

did this year, even though they'd lived in local communities affected

for all of their lives. Are you aware of a letter that Carwyn Jones

wrote when he was sitting in your chair as environment minister in

2006? It was to the Environment Agency. In effect, it told them to

ease off. I'm not aware of a letter that in effect told the Environment

Agency to ease off. I am aware of a letter that clarified the role of

the Environment Agency in terms of its statutory... He says "I would

only expect the agency to object where it is appropriate to do in a

flood management terms, rather than a matter of principle." What's that,

if it's not telling them to ease off? I'm very cautious about

selective quotations from long letters, may I say. It's not that

long a letter. That's a selective quotation. There's much else in the

letter as well. It's important that the Environment Agency as a

statutory consultee full tills its responsibilities appropriately.

Where that needs to be clarified by Welsh Government, it's important

that happens. In Talybont the flood survivors meet regularly. Here,

they're talking about insurance. now pay �140 a month. My insurance

has gone up by �1200 a year because of this event. The insurance

industry has an arrangement with the Government to cover high risk

areas. That's under review. In 12 months' time I believe the

statement of principles comes to an end. What that will mean for all

our insurance beyond that 12 months, I don't know. After next year, when

the insurance guarantee goes, Wales is going to be one of the first

countries to suffer from blue lining in the UK. The only way for

some of them to get flood insurance after that time may be to go to a

betting shop. Because insurers regard the risk as so serious it's

no longer insurance, it's a gamble. It's four months since the

Ceredigion flooding and of the people we met, only Mike is back

home. Today, we seem to be getting more and more floods, in parts of

the country that have never been previously affected. The truth is

that for more and more of us, this could be an all too familiar scene.

I do come up on a daily basis to check. It's going to take a little

time. I don't know when we'll be moving in.