Wild Weather in 2012: Midlands

Welcome to a special programme charting what can only be described

as a Crazy year of weather in the Midlands. 2012 began with snow, by

February drought warnings were issued in the region and then we

had unprecedented torrential downpours. -- by April. In June we

had the heaviest rainfall for 100 years. The River Rea rose 5ft in

90minutes. That's this much where I am standing, so I would have had to

swim to safety. We had hailstones in North Warwickshire that were big

enough to smash greenhouses. We had 253 flood warnings throughout the

Midlands, emergency services were stretched. Hello, can you send

someone. My street is literally knee-deep. I'm at the West Midlands

Fire Service HQ where the team coordinates the response to 999

calls. In one June day, 400 calls came in here related to flooding.

More than 200 in one hour. Across the region thousands of properties

were threatened by flood water, families were made homeless,

motorists stranded and worse, the weather of 2012 has cost lives.

Flooding was the big weather issue for Midlanders in 2012. Many found

their cars flooded or became trapped in rising waters. In

Bitterley, a small village near Ludlow on one day in June, Judy

Ellis was waiting for her husband, Michael, to return home. She spoke

to us exclusively about what happened next. At around 3 minutes

past two he rang. He said, the car's stuck in the middle of the

village. I don't know what's happened but it's stalled and smoke

is coming from the engine. I've switched it off and I'm going to

walk home. He was thinking of getting home, not the things that

might happen on the way home, you don't expect in a safe environment.

The stream just doesn't enter your consciousness as being dangerous.

Worried that her husband was taking a long time, Mrs Ellis set off to

find him. I walked around to where the car was going to be and there

was someone on the corner who said hello and I said, is there a

problem? She said, yes, I've just seen a man go down the brook. I

knew it was my husband. Michael had abandoned his car and walked along

the line of the brook to try to get around the flooded area. Emergency

services were called. But he couldn't be seen. West Mercia

Police informed fire and rescue teams. As we arrived this area of

the road you couldn't walk through because it was underwater. These

fields all the water was running off the fields and here under the

bridge. Mike was a mathematician, he was used to assessing risks. He

was also someone who loved walking in wild country, he took young

people out walking, he was very keen on safety and how you deal

with difficult situations and he wasn't the sort of person to take a

risk. Mr Ellis had miscalculated. The normally gentle brook was a

lethal raging torrent, he was swept away. I think where this debris has

been built up here, the crew actually located Mr Ellis against

the tree here, and with a combination of crews we got hold of

Mr Ellis and took him out of the tree for the ambulance to work on

him. It doesn't have to be deep water to wash you away. The danger

with flood water is that it's unpredictable, you can't see what's

underneath it. Mr Ellis died. There was nothing emergency services

could do to save his life. If he'd stayed there for two hours the

flood would have gone. But you don't think like that when you want

to get home. He was a very considerate person. He was such a

gentle person. He would have wanted to get home so I wouldn't worry

about him. He was thinking about the getting home and not the

dangers of the route he was taking. In every corner of the region, fire

and rescue services have had to help those caught out by this

Pupils from Fairfields High School in Herefordshire have their own

dramatic memories of this year's flash flooding, which they captured

on phone cameras. We thought it was just going to be a normal day

coming to school. It didn't look so deep from where we were, we thought

it was just a puddle. The water started where these signs are here.

The bus stopped about where you are standing now with the camera.

second picture is from out the front window and side window. On

the bus which had a glass door we were taking pictures to show how

high it was. When we saw the water coming up the door we realised it

was sealed really well as we did not get a single bit of water. The

dry there was very calm, calm everyone down telling us it would

be all right then he phoned the school. It meant yet another call

out for an emergency team. cheered and everyone was really

happy when we sought the fire engine. The Lady weeded out from

the truck and put on a line to pull us out. Probably we do not one that

ever happen again. -- waded. Local knowledge is all-important in

coping with extreme weather and in Herefordshire, the region's wettest

county of 2012, one community decided that self-help may be the

best way of avoiding disaster. This is Bodenham. We don't suffer from

river flooding, we suffer from flash flooding, rainwater combined

with water running off the hills and we are in the bottom of a plain.

The water runs off into the brook and if the water can't get away

it'll come into the village. After devastating floods in 2007, Babs

Mitcheson helped rally the village which decided to become the first

line of defence themselves. twin culverts at the end of this

road are a problem for the village. They were built in Victorian times

and are no longer fit for purpose. We realised fairly quickly that was

the pinch point. In one of the culverts there was a plastic water

tank and in the second culvert there was 11 tonnes of silt, almost

all of this was bricks and stones and a 30mph sign with a concrete

base. The community group won grants to improve their flood

defences from The Environment Agency and the Drainage Board.

After the most recent heavy rainfall, Babs visited neighbours

to see how the defences have coped. No problems that I can think of.

The big cupid any barriers up or just allow everything to take its

own way? We put a couple of barriers up. Babs and her team now

regularly visit neighbouring villages to promote the self-help

template. The first group we spoke to were reticent but now they've

got themselves organized. They've got their first grant coming in,

they're moving on. There is a huge sense of achievement in actually

being able to help yourself. All the measures we have booked into

police have worked and the village has not flooded. -- into place.

Bodenham's successful community effort has not always been possible.

Underestimating flood can be a fatal mistake as, all too

tragically, Michael Ellis was to discover. Friends of mine didn't

even know there was a stream there. It is that small a stream, that

safe a stream, but on a day when there is so much water coming

straight off the fields, you can't see the depth, you only know how

fast it's running because of the noise and you only know the

strength of it by what it's carrying down. If he didn't see

that he wouldn't have realised. That was Herefordshire, but flash

flooding happened throughout the region. Duty Command Officer today

is Linda, how do you prepare here for what might happen? What impact

has the weather had on the service this year? We have suffered from

several periods of intense rainfall that have had a significant impact

on the amount of calls we have received. Particularly we have had

a number of calls where people have attempted to drive through deep

water and then get stranded, particularly if it is fast-flowing

it can be extremely dangerous and that is when we have sent out teams

to rescue. But why did the Crazy weather happen? For a global look

at the causes of the year of weird weather, here's meteorologist Nick

Miller. In the spring of this year, England was dry as a bone.

Reservoirs were dangerously low and much of the country was in drought.

I was in this parched aquifer. It seemed the or only thing that could

save us would be a highly unusual long spell of the rain. But you

should be careful what you wish for. It was the most rapid change from

dry to wet in living memory. The driest spring for over a century

turned into the wettest April to June on record. I'm going to find

out what the scientists know about this sudden meteorological U-turn,

and what they think will happen in the summers of the future. And I'm

going to go meet the people who were badly hit and explain to them

why it happened. First stop North Tyneside, hit by a flash flood in

June. It was really cereal. It was a strange sight looking out your

window and seeing a man in a canoe going down the street. I have come

to the same street to tell the residence the reason for the

canoeists. To do that, you have to look at things left at global view

which is why I have got this here. In particular we have to talk about

this, this is the Jetstream. It is a ribbon of fast-moving ear about

six miles up in the atmosphere which carries those weather systems.

It heads in the general direction of the UK because of the direction

of the rotation of the Earth and it drives our weather. The reason it

is important is because the jet stream beds and carries storms

across the Atlantic towards the UK. The jet stream pursues bad weather

towards us? Absolutely. But the fact that the jet stream exists

doesn't explain canoeing on the streets of North Tyneside. No. It's

the way the jet stream behaved that was the problem. And there are some

people in West Sussex who would like to know more. One night in

June this village had one month of the rain fall. I had to start

evacuating people between 2 and 3 in the morning because there were

floods in the shallows. In winter the jet stream is normally hear,

running across the Atlantic towards the UK. We would expect, as you

know, do get some spells of rain in winter. But this time things were

In 2012, the jet stream was much further south than we would expect

full step that meant that --.. That meant that the storms which we

would normally get went to Spain and Portugal. Would that be a cause

of the drought? Absolutely, because if the jet stream is not carrying

weather systems to the UK, we end up drier. That is why at the end of

our winter, there was so much fear about drought and what would happen

if we had a third a dry winter. And then, when summer came around, the

jet stream was still too far south. In the summer, we would normally

expect the jet stream to the north of the UK. That means a we are in

that warm weather. We get lovely, waltz up -- lovely, warm sunshine.

We know that did not happen this year. Because of the jet stream

being further north, the store was that normally miss us were too far

south and hit the UK, bringing heavy rainfall and the floods.

the jet stream was in the wrong place for us all here? Absolutely.

That is why our weather has not fitted the normal pattern all year.

Basically, the jet stream was in the wrong place and got stuck. But

do the scientists have any theories about why it got stuck? That is a

question being asked by one particular man in Devon. After a

night of intense rain in the village of young son, near Plymouth,

Allah -- Adam frame found himself trapped in his house. I was asking

the emergency services for help. One the villagers want to know, is

this. So, why was the jet stream in the wrong position? Good question.

I will go over towards North America. That's it. I want to take

you to BC, where we know the temperature is higher than normal.

-- I want to take you to the sea. The theory is that because the sea

is more -- warmer than normal, the jet stream does not get push north

and end up further south and takes the weather systems across the UK.

If you influenced the jet stream, it is like waving a long stream --

a long string -- a long stick. You can have a bigger effect at the end

of it, over the UK. And we have seen this before, in the 1950s.

Where does all the bad weather come from! The North Atlantic heated up

in the similar way and there was a corresponding series of wet summers.

That is one theory. Another theory relates to Arctic sea ice. You may

have seen reports this year about the fact that the sea ice melted to

a degree we have never seen before. It is suggested that the change in

the amount of sea ice has led to a change in the position of the jet

stream and changes in the kind of weather we get in the UK. But what

are the sum was going to be like in the future? It depends which of

those two theories has the most effect. It is the relationship

between those two, and which is strongest, which determines that.

If North Atlantic warming reverses, we could flip into the opposite

regime and have a hot, dry summers in a decade or two. But what if it

is the second theory, the melting of the Arctic ice, which is the

dominant factor? What happens then? We think that the melting of Arctic

sea ice is a part of man-made climate change. If that is

determining the position of the jet stream, we are going into uncharted

waters. We are going into a position when maybe the weather we

are experiencing in summer may start to change. What a year of

whether it has been. And the answers lie well beyond our shores.

If the North Atlantic cools down, we might get a sunny summers back.

But if it is down to Arctic sea ice, we might just have to wait and see.

Of course, as well as the very human costs of the severe weather

this year, there have been economic costs. Staff to co-ordinate

responses, emergency teams on the road, and then there is the

physical damage to property. Bad weather is bad for business, and

costs us all, one way the other. Have you noticed your insurance

bill recently? In eight hours on one June day, a weather station in

Solihull recorded 62mm of rain, more than the annual average for

the whole month. Midlands roads were simply not designed to cope

with the Rivers like the Cole, Rea, Avon, Stour and others bursting

their banks. Motoring Rescue Teams handled thousands of call-outs. The

economic cost of Tom Fowler and his Special Operations Response Team

adds up. It is coming down into a dip, so we have a chance.

Back in action again last month, Tom was out, carefully probing the

latest flood waters for hidden dangers on the road. Probe, gently

drive down and connect up. The gentleman's obviously tried to

navigate the puddle but as soon as the water gets up to a certain

height on the intake then the engine will stop as soon as the

water gets in the engine. It was fine yesterday morning but

obviously due to all the heavy rain we have had overnight, it's a bit

flooded. Getting stuck cost kitchen-fitter Karl a day's work

and he will need new parts for his van. The floods meant he lost a

minimum of �300, but it also meant time and cost to the AA. We managed

to get the vehicle out of the flood by checking the route, making sure

there is no debris sticking around and then gently towing the vehicle

out. Come on! We have managed to get the vehicle started but we need

to make sure there is no water still in the system so we are going

to do a few checks to make sure that is OK to go. It's easy to

think nightmares faced by Karl are just his problem, but Midlands

motorists are all having to get used to higher insurance bills

because of incidents like this. It's getting wetter every year as

far as I'm concerned and the floods obviously will put premiums up.

Then there's the cost to the regional economy of cancelled

events. In Coventry, the War Memorial park became so wet and

dangerously boggy that the Godiva Festival was in jeopardy. Local

stall-holder Martyn Ladkin needed the business the festival promised

- then the weather intervened. Godiva Festival has been

cancelled...' I had to put all that effort into stock, in terms of my

partner attending. It was a great opportunity for our business to

raise the profile and also in terms of financial gain. Short-term, we

were expecting profits to be close to �2,000, which, for a small

business, we would have gained four -- from that. NEWLINE But the

biggest loser was the Coventry council taxpayer. The event cost

�398,000, even though it didn't take place. The cancellation of so

many outdoor events even affected a Worcestershire dairy farm that had

tried to protect against milk price fluctuations by diversifying into

luxury ice cream. Mike Davies runs the business with daughter Gillian.

This is where we make our ice cream. And some of that ice cream is

uniquely flavoured using locally grown fruiT - but guess what? The

unpredictable weather put paid to that this year.

How many flavours do you produce? About 30 different flavours. Some

are seasonal, we try to use local ingredients where we can - late

summer, early autumn, we make a plum ice cream. That's been

affected by the bad weather this year.. There was no soft fruit.

even selling non-flavoured ice- cream was not an option. The cold,

wet summer saw sales go into reverse after seven successive

years of growth. Business down on this farm near Droitwich needs a

good end to the year. Whatever they tried, they just couldn't win. The

dismal weather seemed to affect every aspect of the business. And

what is bad for farming is bad for us all as we pay more for our food.

The Davies family have farmed these fields for generations. Whilst the

cows may have enjoyed the lush green grass that thrived with the

extra rain, other rising feed costs have had a negative impact on

Mike's business. Despite the positive start to the year that the

dry firm ground gave his 270 stock, as the rain increased, so did

Mike's overheads. It was marvellous last year. A dry winter was

fantastic. We have 50 head of cattle out, we were able to graze

them on rape and turnips. It went very well. I was quite looking

forward to a good summer, but we didn't get it. As soon as it rained,

everything changed. The cattle began to struggle on the

sodden ground. They were brought in earlier for a winter food ration to

preserve next year's vital pasture. We have had to use more feed. The

price of wheat has risen 50%. The price of soya has risen 60% over

the last year. But we still have to feed the cows in order to get milk.

According to a recent BBC investigation, the wettest summer

in a century has cost Britain's rural economy up to �1 billion. The

negative impact of the climate was felt in the Midlands tourism

industry, too. In Stratford-Upon- Avon, heritage buildings at the

Shakespeare Birthplace Trust bore the brunt of the heavy rain. ..Hey

ho, the wind and the rain #. Damage to stonework, and historic gutters

overwhelmed by the torrential downpours sent the annual

maintenance bill past the usual �100,000 mark. In May and June in

particular, we have had to postpone or reorganise a number of outdoor

activities and events that have been completely washed out by the

weather. More than half of our visitors come from overseas on a

pilgrimage to Shakespeare's birthplace and to Stratford. We

want them to have the very best possible visit they can have so

they can go home and tell everyone about this wonderful place that

they visited. But that's very difficult to do when so much of the

offer here in Stratford is outdoors. The skies rain down stinking pitch.

This year, our visitor numbers are down on 2011, a very good year. We

are down about 50,000 visitors this year, so I think the weather does

have a bad affect on visitor attractions in general. Visitor

numbers to tourist meccas like Stratford in the Midlands are down

by up to 12%, cutting income by millions across the region - and

the effects of Crazy Weather 2012 will still be felt next year. Visit

England confirm that 20% of people who would have remained in Britain

in 2013 now plan to holiday abroad as a direct result of the bad

weather. Is there any silver lining on the horizon? Well, sort of. So,

how has your business been affected by the bad weather? He it has had a

positive effect. Particularly with facials. Officials have doubled

this year, compared to last year. Why is that? I think it is the

weather having an effect on skin types. We are getting a lot of

people coming in with congested, dry skin, through lack of

circulation. The apparent lack of sun and wet

weather seemed to boost the beauty industry further. One well-known

online retailer reported a huge increase of 1,200% in sales of fake

tan. This peaked on 2nd July, just days after the heaviest rain of the

summer. National sales figures placed Birmingham in tenth place

overall. It just makes me feel better. In what way? Happy, more

confident. So, there is a side to this crazy

year of weather which has seen some businesses in the Midlands benefit,

but that was a pretty thin silver lining, to say the least. As the

most recent turn of bad weather in the region has shown, our obsession