Wild Weather in 2012: North West

If there's one thing we have plenty of in the North West, it's weather!

And out there is one reason why. We're completely at the mercy of

the Atlantic, and dependably, year on year, it chucks everything it

has right at us. I'm Dianne Oxberry, and I present the weather. But you

don't need me to tell you this year, it's been in a class of its own. In

this programme, we bring together not just the BBC's own footage, but

also some extraordinary pictures captured by many of you of the

unprecedented weather events of 2012 as they unfolded across our

We run through the meteorological records which fell like confetti.

April has broken records for the amount of rain we've had right

across the whole of the UK. We meet people whose homes and

workplaces have been dramatically affected.

This has got to be the worst year I can remember in the garden as a

result of the weather. And we explore the science behind

the turbulent weather and ask whether the changes in our climate

might mean we need a fundamental rethink in the way we design our

I'm on a rooftop at Blackpool's Pleasure Beach. It's the region's

top tourist draw, but like everything else exposed to the

weather, well, this year, the effects have been unprecedented. By

midsummer, visitor numbers were down 18%. And Blackpool's hit the

headlines several times this year as events had to be cancelled.

We're live in Blackpool for the Olympic torch.

I was actually here, presenting North West Tonight, when the

Olympic torch arrived during that storm of June 22nd and celebrations

had to be switched from the top of the Tower to the Ballroom for

safety reasons. So a dramatic year, but let's remind ourselves just how

turbulent it has been. I joined the region's Met Office advisor, Alan

Goodman, to take a run through the weather headlines of 2012.

So, Alan, a very busy year for a meteorologist. And you were at the

heart of that decision to move those Olympic torch celebrations in

Blackpool. So unfortunate, Dianne, that the

wettest, windiest day of the summer happened to be that Friday in June.

Winds touching up to 50 miles per hour, driving rain, conditions just

too dangerous to go to the top of the Tower.

But I can't remember a year when so many records have been broken.

A year of records, particularly on the rainfall side, too many of them,

unfortunately, for our comfort. Let's take a look at those

headlines and let's take a look at some fantastic pictures sent in by

some people who were caught up in those weather events of this year.

The year started with a bang, a taste of things to come. Early

January brought storm force winds, torrential rain, 2,000 houses in

Cumbria without electricity. Things calmed down, and in mid-January,

perhaps some dared hope they'd got away with winter. Not a chance, of

course. In February, we got the first nudge that 2012 was going to

be a record breaker. We had the iciest first half for 20 years,

then the warmest second half for 15. Puny statistics compared with what

was to come. By now, taken as a whole, we'd had an exceptionally

dry 24 months. And how we might look back now at March as a fool's

paradise. Sunbathers basked in 19 degrees in Manchester's Piccadilly

Gardens. I'm enjoying the heat right now, as you can tell from my

facial expression. It was the driest March for nearly 60 years,

the warmest for 55. It hit the news. The good weather seems set to stay.

The big question, just for how long?

Well, as it turns out, Alan, not for very long at all.

No. One of the weather highlights of the year, Dianne. A few days

when we had a high pressure anchored right over the UK, caused

by a nice block, the jet stream looping right round the UK and

giving us ideal mid-spring weather. And we are going to be talking a

bit more about the jet stream later in the programme, but it seems that

2012 was just about to get into its stride. The wettest April on record

tricked us at first. Not rain, but snow. Parts of the Peak District

ground to a halt. 9,000 homes were left without power. Then the

weather put down its true marker for 2012. Rain, followed by rain.

On May 25th in Cumbria, 28 degrees. Little did we know that was as good

as summer would get anywhere in the North West this year. Because next

came June. We all remember the rain-drenched street parties for

On the 16th, Elton John tried his hand at singing, too, at the

inaugural concert at Blackpool's Tower Festival Headlands, abandoned

due to foul weather. We've been told by the police that

we have to come off and you have to file out, very orderly, and get out

of here as quickly as possible, OK. Then the great storm of June 22nd

and 23rd. Among the Lancashire villages hit by flooding, Croston,

where the River Yarrow burst its banks. 70 homes were inundated, and

for a time, Croston became an island, cut off by road. That was

when the Olympic torch procession swept, wetly, through Morecambe and

Blackpool. On the 28th, Kendal and many other places in south Lakeland

were hit by flash floods. This was not only the wettest June, but the

wettest April to June for over 100 years. It's depressing looking back,

it's such a washout. Complete washout during June. Most parts of

the North West more than double the average rainfall, amounts of rain

in an hour that were far too much for the drains to cope with, so

roads became rivers. And then July wasn't much better. Another wetter

than average month, cooler than average, hardly any further fine

days in there at all. So by the time August came around, we were

On August bank holiday weekend, a record crowd of 60,000 turned up

for Europe's biggest annual dance festival at Creamfields near

Days one and two passed off as Two weeks of rain in just a few

hours. Cancelled, mate. If you go on Creamfields, you might get half

your money back, if you're lucky. For the first time in its 16-year

history, the event was being abandoned. Other events cancelled

included Cartmel Races and a music festival in Liverpool. Some people

And just in case anyone had any thoughts of an Indian summer,

here's September 26th. In Croston again. More than a month's rain in

two days. In October, someone else took a pounding. Hurricane Sandy

Did we hope, in early November, the weather had lost interest in rain?

The new dousing of the 22nd, which forced evacuation of this hospice

at Ulverston in Cumbria, told us not. And winter is still young. So,

Alan, quite a year there. Quite a year indeed. Way too wet, nowhere

near enough sunshine, and when it really mattered in the summer

months, not warm enough either. Well, those headline events are

only part of the story. As 2012 trod its soggy path, there have

been more general changes. If, like me, you have a garden, you may have

noticed a slimy invasion which has Gordon Baillie, head gardener at

Arley Hall in Cheshire, took us to meet the invaders. If we come on in

through here, we should be able to find just the sort of thing we're

looking for. Never in 33 years of gardening has Gordon seen the like.

Right, if there is one real villain in the garden, I'm hoping to find

it around here. Ah, there we go. It's the slug. It's these little

ones that really do the damage in the garden. Most people think it's

the big ones, but the little ones eat far more for their size. Now,

because of the wet weather, the population of slugs has trebled

this year, and also the quantity of damage they've done has gone up

equally as much. But not, as it turns out, at Arley Hall, where

Gordon works. In the making of this film, we made a startling

discovery: Arley, like some enchanted palace, even in this year

of Slugmageddon, is a slug-free Now, here we have some young

lettuce plants. Absolutely the slug's favourite, favourite food.

Now, had we a slug population in this garden, these young plants

would have been absolutely devastated. We don't have slugs

here. Why there are not, I don't know. Do we have the world's most

ravenous thrushes, are there hordes of hungry hedgehogs, is it the

soil? To be honest, I don't really know, and I really don't care. We

just don't have the slugs and that's what makes me happy. But in

this year of foul weather, the garden is not without its villain.

Now, we might not have slugs here, but one of the things we do have

are rabbits, and this is the sort damage that they can do. Now, here

we've got some young wallflowers which were planted out a few days

ago and these have been absolutely murdered by the rabbits. We've had

a rabbit explosion this year, mainly because the weather has been

so poor that we've been sitting inside in front of the telly or in

front of the fire, we haven't been able to get out in the evenings and

go round popping off a few of them, as we would normally do. Safely

behind rabbit-proof fencing in the kitchen garden, some wallflowers,

like lettuces, survive. And this is what the wallflower should be like,

if they haven't been getting eaten by rabbits. Many plants have been

badly affected by the weather this year. Fruit trees in particular

have been severely hit. These apple trees have had a very, very low

crop this year. This was because the bees which hatched expecting to

find the flowers ready for pollinating were too early, the

plants had been held back, there were no flowers. This meant that

the bees starved, it meant that the flowers didn't get pollinated,

we've had no fruit on the trees and the yield of honey is down anything

up to 90%. This has got to be the worst year that I can remember in

the garden as a result of the weather. So a good year for slugs

and a lucky year for rabbits. A changeable year for all of us. But

what lay behind those changes? For a global look at the causes of the

year of weird weather, here's In the spring of 2012, England was

dry, reservoirs were dangerously low, much of the country was in

drought, and I was in a parched aquifer somewhere underneath Sussex.

A very, very serious situation. Our underground sources, our

underground aquifers are very, very low.

It seemed the only thing that could save us would be a highly unusual

long spell of heavy rain. But you should be careful what you wish for.

The worst drought since 1976 was followed by the wettest April to

June on record. I'm going to find out what the scientists say are the

reasons for this. I've equipped myself with a huge globe to put

things in to perspective, and I'm going to see the people who are

badly hit to explain to them why it happened.

Away say that people who were badly hit, to explain to them why it

happened. -- I will see the people. First stop, North Tyneside, hit by

a flash flood in June. It was really surreal. It was a

weird sight, you know, looking out your window and just seeing a man

in a canoe like going down the street.

So I've come to the exact same street to tell the residents the

reason for the canoeists. And to do that you have to look at things

with a global view, which is why I've got this here and, in

particular, we have to talk about this - this is the jet stream. Now

the jet stream is a ribbon of fast moving air about six miles up in

the atmosphere that carries those weather systems, and it's a

dividing line between the cold Polar air and the warmer across us

and to the south of us. And it heads in the general direction of

the UK because of the rotation of the earth, and it drives our

weather according to Adam Scaife from the Met Office.

The reason it's important is because the jet stream guides and

carries storms across the Atlantic to the UK, so it's the first order

thing that determines the UK weather.

So the jet stream pushes bad weather towards us?

Absolutely. But the fact the jet stream exists

doesn't explain canoeing on the streets For a and have of North

Tyneside. No, it was the way the jet stream behaved that was a

problem, and I know some people in West Sussex who want to know more.

I'm on my way to a place called Bracklesham Bay.

One night in June they had a month's worth of rain, and the

Sussex beach holiday village on the coast took the brunt.

I got called out early hours Monday morning about 2/3 and I had to

start evacuating people because it was flooding their chalets.

So let's speak to the workers of the holiday park about the fact

there's a pattern to the way the jet stream normally behaves across

the year. In winter the jet stream is normally here, running across

the Atlantic towards the UK. So we will, as you know, we'd expect to

get some spells of rain in winter. This time things were different. So

says Len Shaffrey from the University of Reading.

So in 2012 the jet stream was much further south than we kind of

expect. What it meant was that, you know, all the storms that normally

hit the UK were going in to Spain and Portugal, and that meant it was

much dryer in the UK than normal. Would that be any cause of the

drought? Absolutely, because if you don't

have the jet stream carrying wet weather systems to the UK, as it

should have been in the winter and it's further south we end up dryer,

and that's why at the end of our winter, the start of this year,

there was so much fear about drought and what would happen if we

had a third dry winter. And then when summer came around the jet

stream was still too far south. Now in the summer we'd normally expect

the jet stream to be north of the UK and that means that we're in

that warm weather. We get spells of lovely warm sunshine. That's the

plan anyway. And we know that didn't happen this year.

Now the jet stream being further north of Iceland, storms that

normally miss us were too far south and basically hit the UK, bringing

really heavy rainfall and the flooding that we saw.

So the jet stream was in the wrong place for us all year?

Absolutely. And that's why all year long our weather hasn't fitted the

normal pattern we'd expect. Basically, the jet stream was in

the wrong place and it got stuck. But do the scientists have any

theories about why it got stuck? That's the question being asked by

one particular man in Devon. After a night of intense rain in the

village of Yealmpton, near Plymouth, Alan Frame found himself trapped in

his house. Yeah, I was leaning out of the

bedroom window, waiting for the emergency services, just trying to

get help. So the man in the green shirt, that's me.

And what the villagers want to know is this.

So why was the jet stream in the wrong position?

Very good question. Twist it with me a little bit. So I want to go

over towards North America. That's it, that's it. There we go. And I

want to take you to the sea here, where we know the temperature of

the sea here is higher than normal, and it has been for quite a while.

The theory is that because the sea is warmer than normal the jet

stream doesn't get that push north and actually will end up further

south and take those weather systems across the UK.

So if you influence the origin of the jet stream it's a bit like

waving a long stick, you can have a big effect at the end of the jet

stream, moving it away or on to the And the interesting thing is we've

seen this before in the 1950s. Where does all the bad weather come

from? The North Atlantic sea temperature

went up in a similar way and at the same time there was a corresponding

series of wet summers. That is one theory. Another theory relates to

Arctic sea ice. You may have seen the reports this year about the

fact that the sea ice melted to a degree that we've never recorded

before, it was that low. One of the suggestions is that that

change in the amount of Arctic sea ice has led to shifts in the

position of the jet stream and then to changes in the kind of weather

we get in the UK. But, of course, what we really want

to know is what are the summers going to be like in the future?

Well, it depends which of those two theories has the most effect.

It's the relationship between those two and which is strongest that

will determine what happens next. But, in principle, if the North

Atlantic warming reverses then it could be that we flip in to the

opposite regime and have hot dry summers in a decade or two from now.

But what if it's the second theory, the melting of the Arctic ice which

is the dominant factor? What happens then?

We think that the decline in Arctic sea ice is part of man-made climate

change. So as the globe warms up the amount of Arctic sea ice is

just declining. And if it's that that's dominating the position of

the jet stream then we're kind of going in to uncharted waters, and

we're kind of going in to position where maybe, you know, the weather

that we're experiencing during summer might be starting to change.

What a year of weather it's been, and the answers lie well beyond our

shores. Now if the North Atlantic cools down we might get our sunny

summers back. But if it's all down to the melting Arctic sea ice we're

just going to have to wait and see. So even with the best science we

can't be entirely clear on what's driving changes in the weather.

That makes forecasting tough but not as tough as dealing with the

impact of the extreme conditions we've seen this year. I've been on

a trip around the region meeting people who've been worst affected

by this year's weather and it's becoming clear that changes in our

climate will mean a dramatic rethink in the way we design our

world. First stop: the flatlands of West

Lancashire. I'm on my way to see arable farmer, Neil Webster.

Omigoodness I hope he's farming rice, because that looks like a

paddy field. Whams Farm, near Burscough, is next door to Martin

Mere Wildfowl Trust, so you can see how high the water table is. Hi

Neil I'm Dianne. Hiya. Y'alright?

Yeah, nice to meet you. Passed some wet fields on the way up to here.

Yeah, it's not so smart, is it. Neil, at 34, farms over 1,000 acres.

Not bad for someone who left school with zero qualifications and no

money. A success story brought to an abrupt halt.

We've probably lost the best of 300,000 this year, due to wet

weather. There's an old fellow down the road, he's 92, and he can never

remember anything like this. Potatoes, carrots, wheat every crop

has been affected. Neil filmed a burst dyke which he reckons caused

one million pounds worth of damage to his and neighbouring farms.

Waterlogged earth has rotted crops, left machinery wallowing.

It's like the Battle of the Somme, innit, it's like you come out of

the field and it looks like you've gone to battle with your farm, sort

of thing, it's just soul-destroying really, it's hard. If I was like

say, be in my fifties, I'd throw the towel in, I'd just say enough's

enough, and this would the year that would finish it off. See,

that's the problem, look. Acres and acres and acres, thousands of

pounds, up the Swanee. Gone. He's been working round the clock. Not

much time for his wife and three daughters.

It's a bit lonely, I think they have been sad, particularly this

year, he's that bit grumpier. We normally like having cuddles

with him at night, before we go to bed.

But he's never there for us to do Across the field, the Environment

Agency are clearing drainage ditches. For Neil, it's too little,

too late. The Environment Agency basically

haven't done their job in cleaning the ditches out, so the water can

run freely to the pumps to be pumped out, then we wouldn't have

this problem that we've got today. The Environment Agency say they

sympathise with farmers, and are working with them across the region

to develop new and sustainable ways of draining the land. At least the

family's farmhouse is on a mound, safely raised above the water table.

In the village of Croston, 8 miles away, not everyone is so lucky.

I wouldn't have been able to drive down here back on June 22nd.

That was the day of the first great flood of the summer in Croston. 70

homes inundated. Many were on Town Road. I'm on my way to see John

Twinn, who back then allowed in the cameras. He had to move out for 13

weeks. Hello John!

Hello Dianne! Nice to see you can I come in?

I have to say it looks immaculate. It does now, but in June after the

flood it wasn't. Total devastation, I'm afraid. The walls had to be

knocked back, all the way, all the plaster off, the furniture's had to

be completely replaced. The smell, because it was sewage, black water,

just everywhere, it was terrible. It filled the garden, too.

This is our garden, that we woke up on the morning of the flood and it

was about three foot deep in flood water. Got a new shed; the old one

had to go. All the plants you can see are basically new, because we

lost all those, and the lawn. The day we moved back in, we got a

phonecall to say the flood alert was on yet again.

That was the flood of September 26th. Now, two floods in three

months, and a kitchen and garden full of sewage, focuses the mind.

John has become an anti-flood campaigner. At the bottom of his

garden lurks his chief adversary. Over this wall, we have the River

Yarrow, which is normally a great river, but when there's a lot of a

rain coupled with a high tide it becomes not so great. These walls

that you can see were actually replaced after the 1987 flood, but

this time the flood came up round the side of the walls and up

through the ground. Here's a startling statistic, from

the National Flood Forum: 20 years ago, 20% of insurance claims after

flooding were for standing water. Now, it's 80%. That suggests we're

getting more flash floods. The amount of development that's

gone on throughout the whole of the Yarrow Valley, places like Buckshaw

Village, the run-off from those properties, that's the water that

comes off the rooves and the roads, and the concrete drives, goes

directly into the river instead of soaking in like it used to do. And

that means the river levels are really getting higher, on a more

regular basis. The antiquated sewerage systems that we've got

can't take it, they weren't built for it.

The drains were designed to spew water straight into the river

through metal flaps. The problem is with more rain, and more run-off,

the river gets so high it keeps the flaps pushed shut and water can't

escape. So we really need a rethink of how

we look at getting rid of excess water.

John's plan: a small dam upstream, to restrict the river's flow when

there's too much rain. If the amount of rainfall continues

to increase, you're going to have to think about fundamental things

like redesigning the flow of rivers. Absolutely. What we need to do is

create a floodplain upstream. This'll prevent the river levels

being so high at time of flood, and that way prevent it happening again.

Fifty miles north of John's house, the wettest part of England.

The Lake District fells are beautiful, but many are made of

non-absorbent volcanic rock. Pour water on them, and it comes

sheeting straight off again which is what happened in Kendal on June

28th. Kelly Meyrick, who owns a beauty salon, and her husband Ian,

were shopping in the town centre. The sky went black

The rain started to come down incredibly quickly, never seen

anything like it, and the roads were flooded within a few minutes,

and that's when you got the call from the salon.

What did they say? I said: is the salon flooded, and

they said it's much worse than that. The ceiling's collapsed.

They raced through flooded roads to get to the Castle Green Hotel; The

Green Rooms salon, tucked round the back, has a flat roof which caved

in under torrential rain. Sam King was working at the time.

Hi Sam, tell me what it was like. Yes, it was really terrifying.

was just doing my sister's treatment and all I could hear was

just this gush of water, came outside the treatment room and next

thing I knew the ceiling fell in on me. It just nearly took me out,

really, it was quite painful, like it just went everywhere.

How did you feel? I cried!

I bet! I just didn't know where to start,

didn't know what to do. It was just water everywhere...

And how do you feel when it rains now?

We move everything out of the way! We just don't want anything to get

damaged in here again! Some experts think a bit of

redesigning wouldn't go amiss in the fells. All that sheep-cropped

turf does little to hold back cascading water. It may be time to

introduce belts of longer vegetation to slow the flow.

Before we end our tour, spare a thought for the last remaining

umbrella-maker in the North West. You'd think that at least for this

tiny factory in Stockport, the rain would have brought booming business.

But Richard Stretton creates corporate branding, for customers

who want to impress clients with fancy days out, on the golf course.

With the weather, and the recession, there haven't been many of those

this year. Everybody likes to say to me,

because it's been so wet, that I must be a multi-millionaire.

But unfortunately, sadly, that's not the case.

Turnover has in fact shrunk, and Richard, like the rest of us,

dreams of sun... So there we have it. I can't

remember a year like it and I guess lots of us are hoping we won't see