Wild Weather in 2012: South West

Here Air Southwest, we're on the frontline for weather. I try to

predict what is coming. Of of the Science and Technology has got

better, no one could have predicted the extremes of weather we have all

been experiencing this year. In this film, will be looking back at

one of the weird is yours for weather we've ever experienced. --

and we're just two years. At times, we have had drought warnings and

flood warnings issued on the same day. Now if there is heavy rain, I

get very nervous. It has been a terrible year. My father has been

here for 60 years. It is the worst year that he can remember. From

drought to flood, we have had it all. It really has been a year of

wild weather. It started off with a second try winter. Then, just as

low hosepipe bans were announced across the country and the drought

declared in the South West, the heavens opened. And it just kept on

ringing. It was the wettest April to July for 100 years. Across the

region, many of us face the risk of severe flooding. Do some people

argue that if this had been done earlier, then this would not have

happened. The flash flood of October made

headlines are round-the-world, thanks largely to this mobile phone

fitted. -- footage. At lunchtime, there was a river coming down the

street. There was a torrent of water. Tons and tons of it. Never

seen anything like it. Remarkably, the flood only seriously damaged

five properties. Today, Steve air is meeting a representative from

each Environment Agency. He specialises in minimising the

impact of flash flooding. By the time we got a peer, the rock had

already gone. This is where the river comes through now. My theory

is that deposits in the water made it more and more shall until it

went straight down the hill. We did not have a flood plan. Older

generations used to hand maintain the river. Over time, that

tradition has been lost. That is the kind of thing we need get

backing to communities. There are the people we know how to stop this

from happening. If there was a flood warning, people could come

and and block the dreams. -- remove anything that is blocking the dream.

-- drain. I feel like we have had a shock, but where we're prepared for

it to happen again. In July, an alert was issued several hours

before this river burst its banks. But there was little residents and

business owners could do. 35 homes were devastated. A surge of up to

seven feet swept through the valley. Local businesses suffered two. --

too. Come into my workshop. This is where the water got to. Above the

electricity supply. Above waist height. It inundated everything

that was Electrical. We suffered flooding over all of our machines.

It was over the top of this machine here. I live nearby and I ran down

first time. There was water everywhere. I have never seen

anything like it. The workshop is running again now. But it took two

months. It was not covered by insurance. They are worried it will

happen again for. We have had no theories or indications again. I

bid like to know if it will happen again. If this man should be able

to answer the question. The flood defence expert of the Environment

Agency. We have some graphs here. These are at River Dee ages. We can

see the event of 7th July. The curve is the river level. You can

see how quickly the river level was responding to rainfall. The river

levels were the highest that have been recorded at ease gauges. That

tells you it was a severe event. -- these gauges. It could happen again.

If you live in a flood plain area, flooding can happen. We can build

defences, but that is only to a certain level. This year, for the

first time, this �2 million scheme it failed to protect homes from

flooding. They were flooded twice. This manner campaigned for the

damned to be built. Mother Nature can destroy anything. What is the

function of the date? This is the normal throttle for the river. It

is to prevent normal flooding. One cities over the top of that, there

is nothing you can do. It reached the peak of the dam and went over

the top. It took an hour-and-a-half to get from there to there. Once it

starts string that, there is nothing you can do. You must have

been devastated. I didn't have time to think about it at the time. But

afterwards, looking at the wreckage was awful. Down in the village, the

consequences of the dam overflowing were devastating. One of the worst

affected properties belonged to this woman. She showed me what

happened. The river is very close to my house. On the day of the

flight, it was horrendous. I thought I was saved because of the

dam. I stood there thinking, it can't come through the door as. I

started putting sheets and towels and whatever I could there. But it

didn't make any difference. I was really frightened. It was so fierce.

Six months on and the house is still a building site. Water came

in the front and in the back. Everything on the ground floor was

ruined. My kitchen has been replaced. What faith you have now

in the dam? Not a lot. I tell you, I used to love being in the

conservatory and I used to love the sound of rain on the top of the

roof. Now if there is heavy rain, I get very nervous. I think, not

again. Last month, the dam came perilously close to over topping up

again. But the Environment Agency says it has done all it can. This

scheme is a very good small schemes. We just have to recognise that it

only provides protection up to a certain level. We have to reinforce

the message to everyone that we cannot build ourselves out of flood

risk. We have to, as well as drink those schemes, learning to live

with and adapt to that increasing level of risk. -- as well as doing

those schemes. It is clear from the Environment Agency that no matter

how much work we do, we simply can't afford to build flood

defences everywhere there needed. It means for some of us flooding is

a fact of life. But what are the global causes of this extreme

weather? Meteorological list -- meteorological expert Rick Miller

investigates. I am in Sussex. The level is very

low. It seemed that the only thing which could save us would be a very

long period of prolonged rain. But you should be careful what you wish

for. The worst drought since 1976 was followed by the wettest April

to June on record. I will find out what the scientists say are the

reasons for this. I have equipped myself with a huge globe to put

things into perspective. I will see the people who were badly hit, to

explain to them why it happened. First stop, North Tyneside, hit by

a flash flood in June. It was so real. It was so weird seeing people

in bolt on your street. -- in boats. I have come to the same street to

explain what happened. You have to look at things in a global view. We

have to talk about this. This is the jet stream. The jet stream is a

ribbon of fast-moving area six miles up in the atmosphere that

carries weather systems. It divides cold air above us and warm air to

the south. It heads towards the UK because of the direction -- because

of the flowing of the Earth. The problem was with the way the jet

stream behave. -- behaved. I am off to Bucklesham bay. One night in

June, they had a month's worth of rain. The Sussex beach holiday

village on the coast took the brunt. Let's speak to the workers of the

holiday park about the fact that there is a pattern to the way the

jet stream normally behaves across the year. In winter, the jet stream

is normally here, running across the Atlantic towards the UK. We

would expect some rain in the winter. This time, things were

different. But this time things were different. In a 2012, the jet

stream was much further south than we would expect. That meant that

all the storms that usually hit the UK were going to Spain and Portugal.

That is why there was so much fear about drought and what would happen

if we had a third dry winter. Then, when summer came around, the jet

Now, in the summer, we'd normally expect the jet stream to be north

of the UK. And that means we're in that warm weather. We get spells of

lovely warm sunshine. That's the plan, anyway. We know that didn't

happen this year. Rather than the jet stream being further north over

Iceland, the storms that normally miss us were too far south and

basically hit the UK bringing really heavy rainfall and the

flooding that we saw. So the jet stream was in the wrong place for

us all year? Absolutely, and that's why all year long our weather

hasn't fitted the normal pattern we expect. Basically the jet stream

was in the wrong place and it got stuck. But do the scientists have

any theories about why it got stuck? That's a question being

asked by one particular man in Devon. After a night of intense

rain in the village of Yealmpton near Plymouth, Alan Frame found

himself trapped in his house. leaning out the bedroom window

waving to the emergency services just trying to get help. And what

the villagers want to know is this... So why was the jet stream

in the wrong position? Very good question. Twist it with me a little

bit. So I want to go over towards North America, that's it. There we

go. And I want to take you to the sea here, where we know the

temperature of the sea here is higher than normal and it has been

for quite a while. The theory is that because the sea is warmer than

normal, the jet stream doesn't get that push north and actually will

end up further south and take those weather systems across the UK.

if you influence the origin of the jet stream, it's a bit like waving

a long stick. You can have a big effect at the end of the jet stream

moving it away or onto the UK. the interesting thing is, we've

seen this before in the 1950s. Where does all the bad weather come

from? The north Atlantic sea temperature went up in a similar

way, and at the same time there was a corresponding series of wet

summers. That is one theory. Another theory relates to Arctic

sea ice. You may have seen the reports this year about the fact

that the sea ice melted to a degree that we've never seen before it was

that low. One of the suggestions is that change in the amount of Arctic

sea ice has led to shifts in the position of the jet stream and then

to changes in the kind of weather we get in the UK. But of course,

what we really want to know is what are the summers going to be like in

the future? Well, it depends which of those two theories has the most

effect. It's the relationship between those two and which is

strongest which will determine what happens next. But in principle, if

the North Atlantic warming reverses, then it could be that we flip into

the opposite regime and have hot dry summers in a decade or two from

now. But what if it's the second theory, the melting of the arctic

ice which is the dominant factor what happens then? We think that

the decline in Arctic sea ice is part of man-made climate change. So,

as the globe warms up, the amount of Arctic sea ice is just declining.

And if it's that which is dominating the position of the jet

stream, then we're going into uncharted waters and we're kind of

going into a position where the weather that we are experiencing in

the summer may be starting to change. What a year of weather it's

been, and the answers lie well beyond our shores. Now, if the

North Atlantic cools down, we might get our sunny summers back. But if

it's all down to the melting Arctic sea ice, we're just going to have

So, while the causes of this weather are uncertain, we do know

the profound effect it has had on our homes. It has also affected our

largest industries and wildlife, so I'm going to tell you the story of

this year's weather, and meet the people whose lives have been

The year started with a storm and the BBC were there to report it.

Conditions here on the north Cornwall coast absolutely atrocious.

Once again, it brought havoc to the roads. Torrential rain and high

winds felled trees. And this high- flyer. So far, so what? All pretty

normal stuff for January. But it is what happened next that what had as

weather watchers are really watching and wondering. The sun

shone and shone, and kept on shining, with high pressure the

dominant weather feature. It was the driest March since 1953, and I

found myself reporting on it near record-breaking temperatures.

is every chance we will see a 21 degrees, which will equal the

record March temperature back in 1965. And the Environment Agency

worried about that low water levels. It declared an environment or

drought. But the first three months of this year was the real clincher,

because we had no less than 50% of our normal rainfall. I've come to

the Somerset Levels to find out the impact of this weird weather. Good

morning. Good morning. What are we have been to see today? I meeting

local resident Stephen Moss. He is leading a group to see the unique

wetland habitat and wildlife here at a reserve. Oh, that is a really

lovely bird. Can you see it? Just going to the left. So, earlier this

year we had hosepipe bans on the east of England and the drought

declared. It seems bizarre to be talking about trout, but it was

very serious for the birds because it came on top of a year of dry

weather. And the wetland birds, it looked like it would be a

disastrous summer, because the forecast... I don't think the

phrase barbecues summer was actually used, but if that had

turned out to be the case, these birds would have been in trouble.

So then it poured with rain in April. That must be really good

news for here. For the birds, it looked like good news, but it just

kept on coming. And it actually flooded quite a lot of their nests,

which meant their eggs did not hat, or the Czechs simply drowned or

froze to death. -- chicks. So, to be honest, I think 2012 has been a

terrible year for wildlife. If it carries on like this, I am quite

fearful about the future of Britain's wildlife. It is these

extremes of weather that has made 2012 so strange. It was the wettest

drought anyone can remember. In April, three times the normal

rainfall had fallen, and on four separate days, more rain fell in 24

hours than we normally expect for the entire week. When we add it all

up, a pool turns out to be the wettest on record. And it was the

farmers that suffered. Land was now sodden, borage that cattle under

water. Planting wasn't possible. I am a Yealmpton, one of the sunniest

places in Britain. Here, we had 200 hours' less sunshine this summer.

Not only was a dull, it was also cold. July it was the coldest over

10 years. The you and I that means less trips to the beach, but the

some people it means much more. If it looks idyllic, then for the

family who have been making cider in this ballot for over 200 years,

it usually is. -- in this village. Hello, Richard. How you? Very well

The way they make cider here hasn't changed much, but the weather?

That's a different story. So how has it been for the apples? This

year has been terrible. My father has been here for 60 years and this

is the worst year he can remember, the wettest year and the poorest

apple crop he can remember. We had a lot of rain throughout the summer,

very little sunshine. We rely on that to help the apples swell, help

the sugar levels. So have you made far less cider this year? We are

down by about two-thirds on last year. So you've only made one third

of what you normally expect to make? Yes. After a brief respite in

May, there was more rain, and flooding in June and July. This

time, it was more serious, with Rovers reaching their highest

levels ever. Parts of the Olympic site in Dorset found themselves

several feet under water, with a near by where the station reporting

a record July rainfall. -- near by weather station. And the deluge was

blamed for this dramatic rockfall which caused the death of a young

woman, as well as this tunnel collapse which led to two debt. --

dead. Fears that the Olympics would be a washout proved groundless, as

the weather reverted to type. The first half of August was rather

average, in the words of the Met Office. But luckily, not for medals.

It wasn't to last. In September, it rained again and we saw more than a

dozen flood warnings on rivers around the south-west. October's

high-tide combined with more rain brought -- brought flooding to our

coastal communities. And 2012 wasn't going to end quietly. In

this extraordinary year, extraordinary snowfall. The

earliest for several years. It's now November and already parts of

the south-west are badly flooded. The problem is that now so much

water is there that even if we just get the average rainfall for the

rest of this winter, this flooding is going to continue. And it did.

At one point, both the M5 and main train line to London were unusable.

We think it's probably the biggest flooded then we had since 2000,

when we were really badly affected. So it is a big operation for us.

And it got bigger. This is the moment the 200 year-old Great

Western Canal collapsed. Keep back, there it goes. It sent millions of

gallons pouring on to local farmland. The canal itself was

reduced to a muddy ditch. And there was more. A huge storm rolled over

the south-west, bring in more than two inches of rain it to Cornwall

in under 12 hours. Frantic attempts to clear drains and keep

communities try met with limited success. Many towns and villages

were affected - in all, more than 200 homes and businesses suffered

flooding. Just a deluge of rain, flooding. We've never been so busy

in the Fire and Rescue Service. Everybody has been out. Records

were broken all year. The warmest March, the wettest April. Despite

the deluge, November wasn't a record-breaker, but the ground can

only hold so much water, and winter is not a yet. -- not over yet. Over

the last 20 years, technology has improved, making forecasting in the

short term more reliable. But could I tell you about the summer next