28/10/2011 GMT with George Alagiah

Are fleeing the Thai capital Bangkok as fear grips residents

that the flooding is getting worse. This is the scene in the capital

Bangkok, relief workers are expressing concern that the

authorities cannot cope with the city's main river bursting its

banks It is under water. We have seen this picture time and again in

the past few weeks. Now, we are Hello and welcome to GMT. Also in

this programme. Modernising the Commonwealth. Historic changes

allow females the same succession rights to the thrown and monarchs

to marry Catholics and the Formula One circus arrives in India but are

locals paying too high a price. Welcome. It is 12.30 in London,

early morning in Washington and 6.30pm in Thailand, where the

authorities and the people are bracing themselves for more floods.

So far, about 300 have died in the worse flooding to affect the

country. Thousands of residents in the capital Bangkok have decided to

leave the city, as fears mount that the main river may burst its banks

in coming days. The city's second airport has seen aeroplanes

standing on run aways awash with water. We have been following

developments and have this update. The Government is warning that this

weekend could be decisive in determining how much of Bangkok

might fall victim to the floods, and the reason is we are about to

go into a period of peak high tides. The Chao Phraya river which snakes

through the capital, it is already swollen, the worry is it could

burst its banks when the tide is at its highest. That means that bong

cock would be vulnerable on two fronts. From here, because of the

river, and also from the run off water that is bearing down the

capital from the north. This road bridge has been closed to

everything but essential traffic, so emergency vehicles, a few

motorbikes have been going through, relief supplies. The reason is

there is a community on the other side, but it is already under water.

We have walked across the bridge, to the far side, the far side over

the river. Look at this. It is completely under water. We have

seen this picture time and again in the past few weeks. Now we are

seeing it in districts in Bangkok. Roads that just disappear under the

muddy water. People who are preferring boats to cars because

cars can't get through most of this any more and groups of people that

are packing up belongings, looking to find a way out. We have seen

some coming in the opposite direction. Volunteers who are

trying to help people, but people with supplies who want to try and

stick it out in here. Some people who just feel they can't move all

their families at this stage. You just look round, and see how high

the water is already, you wonder how long they will be able to stay.

We may try and get you some live response from Thailand later in the

programme. The the meantime some of the other stories round the world

today. The contrast between the heavily indebted nations of western

Europe and the economic powerhouse of China sitting on multi-trillion

dollar reserves is evident. While the head of the eurozone bail out

fund is in Beijing, to try to explore ways to attract some of

that cash into the newly expanded plan to solve the EU's debt crisis.

In a moment we will discuss the story. First this report from our

world affairs correspondent. So, will China use its Great Wall of

foreign reserves to help Europe? The head of Europe's bail out fund

hasn't come to China cap in hand, he says he doesn't expect a

conclusive deal but he thinks Beijing will continue to buy his

bonds I have had regular contact with the Chinese authorities, they

are regular buyers of bonds, these are good commercial product, not

linked to any other ideas. China's leaders will be conscious that the

euro block is their biggest export market. Europe's leaders left

Brussels having bought some time for the eurozone, with their last

minute deal. But the verbal jousting continued after President

Sarkozy made this comment about the country at the heart of the crisis,

Greece. Neither Angela Merkel nor myself were in power when it was

decided to allow Greece into theure row. Let us tell things the way

they are. It was a mistake. Greece entered with figure thars were

false and they weren't ready. Their economy wasn't ready for

integration. It was the decision that was taken in 2001 and for

which we are now paying the consequences. The Greeks response

was to dismiss the remarks an their Foreign Minister told the BBC it

was time to move on. This is a European issue, so scapegoating

Greece is not the solution to European issue, Greece making

changes is a solution to help bring a Europe closer to what it should

always be. A union that together is more powerful than almost anyone, a

union that divided can be weak. long-term health of the your row

will depend on European leaders finalising the details of their

plans. Perhaps getting those funds from China. The markets seem to

have been buoyed up for now but by the evoefpbs the last few days but

will be watching closely to see how Europe follows up on its plan. With

me here is Rod Why. So, obviously big economic partnership between

Europe and China, and the Chinese who won't want to see the eurozone

fail. On the other hand if they give some money they won't give us

freely are they, they will want something in return? They are not.

They will be first of all they will be cautious about whether or not

into vest. They want to make sure that they have a safe investment

basically. If they do, they will want something in return, exactly,

something probably something political, they have been asking

for market economies status from the European Union for a long time.

They would certainly want a greater say in international discussion, of

how the international economy works. The G20... Like the IMF, we pay we

want a bigger say. They would, and the G20 meeting is coming up they

want their voice to be heard and taken more seriously. So, I mean,

in a sense would they put a bullet to the head of the European, the

old global powers and say "We will do this but we want this in

return?" might that not cause some concern. I don't think there will

be bullets to the head. The Chinese will say some helpful things. They

have already said helpful things because they do want the European

economy to recover, so they will say helpful things. How much

helpful thing, how many they will do is another question... But they

may say to the Europeans keep quiet about human rights and don't keep

raising it? I don't think they would say it that bluntly, but

certainly some Chinese lead verse said in the past if we do something

for you then we would expect something back, and that would be a

something that the Europeans need to understand. One gets confused

when you look at the global picture, because China on the one hand says

on climate inshoes we are a developing nation and so on, yet

this is a demonstration of how clearly power is shifting from the

west to the east, globally in terms of the money available, three

trillion dollars worth that the Chinese have. What is China then?

China is all these things. China is in many senses still a developing

nation, there is a lot of very poor people in China, on the other hand

China is very much a central power in the world today, and will remain

so. And it is finding it difficult I think, to accustom itself to the

new realities, to the new realities people are looking more to China

for a lead, and for support on big economic issue, on climate issues

and the other things. When you look at where power sits in the world

Tay today, do you say look at Europe, heavily indebted, and yet,

Asia, China in particular, booming and that is where the new power is,

the new wealth is? Yes, but you have to keep these things in

proportion, I mean, Europe is in difficulties but it is still a very

wealthy place. And I think that although we see, we tend to see

ourselves in a difficult position at the moment, that doesn't mean

that power has shifted towards the east. We will see what happens on

that EU bail out fund and whether the Chinese do help the Europeans

or not. Thank you. Now, let us go back to our main story that we

brought you at the beginning of the probg. The flooding in Thailand

where the authorities taped people particularly in Bangkok are bracing

themselves for worse to come, with fears that the city's main river

may burst its banks in the coming day, we can speak to someone who is

running a flood relief centre in the centre of the capital. Can you

give us an update on just what you are doing to try to prepare people

for the worst, are you helping people leave the city, are you

trying to help those who are remaining to prepare themselves

better? What we are trying to co- here -- do here is co-ed or nait,

to assist in the flood... Sound am sorry, it is very hard to make

out what you are saying. Let me just see, I think we are going to

have to leave it. Very sorry about that, but I don't think the line

was strong enough to bring you an update on the flooding, in Thailand.

Some other news in brief now. The corruption trial of the former

Prime Minister of Croatia has opened and adjourned in the capital

pending medical reports. He is alleged to have benefited

financially from high interest loans he organised to fund

Croatia's War of Independence in the '90s. He denies any wrong doing,

the trial is going to resume in a week. An Iranian actress sentenced

to 90 lashess and a year in prison for appearing in an Australian film

has been released. She didn't receive the lashes and had served

almost four months in prison. Marzieh Vafamehr appeared in My

Tehran For Sale, a film about the social problems of a woman living

independently in Iran. In Canada, a small plane has crash-landed in a

city street in van koofrbgs all nine passengers onboard were

injured. The plane was approaching the airport when it went down. It

caught fire and broke up on impact. A person on the ground was also

hurtment some of the passengers are in a critical condition in hospital.

Now, the humble aspirin is back in the news today. A new major study

subjects a daily dose of aspirin should be given to people at high

risk of bowel cancer. The study has found that two pills a day for two

years reduced the incidence of bowel cancer in people with a

family history of it, by 60%. The research es say treatment could

stop up to 10,000 cancers over the next 30 years. Well, let us talk

more about it. Joins us from Newcastle is the man who led the

study Professor Sir John Burn. Tell us more about this, what did your

study show? It is just bowel cancer or other cancers that might be

reduced? We focused on people with an inherited predisposition to

bowel cancer called lynch syndrome. They get other cancer, particularly

of the womb, the exciting observation was as you say, we got

a very dramatic reduction in bowel cancer, of more than 60%, but we

also saw a similar reduction in other cancer, particularly of the

womb. That fits in with the observational studies and follow up

studys that have been gathered over the last 20 years that suggest

people on regular aspirin do get fewer cancers. This is the first

time though we have had a random control trial where people were

blinded to whether they were receiving aspirin or dummy tablets,

as were their doctors, we arranged to follow them for up to ten year,

so it has taken in 1 years to prove this, but this is definitive

evidence. And all right, we hear claims made regularly so anybody

listening to this who may have a family history of bowel cancer,

they just go and start taking the aspirin themselves, because I mean

that is what might happen, or they obviously have to seek medical

advice presumably? To some extent aspirin is an overthe counter

preparation. There are ways you can avoid side effects and, there are

well recognised ones. The figure you quoted of so,000 cancers

preventable, that would be in the UK n this high risk group, and in

that same group, if we did treat them with aspirin we would cause

about 1,000 ulcers so there is a trade off. You get ten times as

many cancer preventions as ulcers. As you become move your way down

the scale, to people at lesser risk, the trade off becomes slightly less

difficult or more of a challenge, but it is true to say, I mean

certainly personally I started taking a low dose aspirin a couple

of years ago, because the balance in favour of heart attack stroke

and cancer prevention has to be set against a relatively small risk of

ulcers, about one per1,000 patient years and that is a treatable

problem so compared to the other problems it is a good trade off in

most people's eyes. What is it about aspirin that gives it these

properties? Sorry could you say that again p what is it about

aspirin that gives it these properties? Aspirin gets its name

from the white willow. My personal theory is it is main effect is the

same in humans as plants. In plant, they make salicylates to induce

programme cell death when the cells become infected. I think in humans

what might be happening is salicylates enhancing that same

programme cell death of cells that might become cancered in the future.

So it could be in fact we are putting back something our ancient

diet used to v because in the past we would have had a lot of that

from wild plants. We don't get that any more because we grow plants in

Thank you very much indeed. Still to come, spin, spin, spin. Who or

are the real winners and losers in India's first ever Formula One

Grand Prix? Now, joining me here is Sally with

the business news and financial news. Another demonstration of the

problems in the eurozone crisis, with some pretty bad employment

figures from Spain? Absolutely. We were talking about the sticking-

plaster over the debt but where is growth going to come from? We are

seeing a new unemployment figures. Over 21%, which is the highest in

any OECD country, in Spain. It is a big psychological barrier and if

you dig into those numbers, it is the young people having real

problems. Over 45% of young people do not have a job. Now that the

construction boom is over, it really means, where is that growth

going to come from? Elections are coming up next month and it is said

that whoever wins that election will have to act very decisively.

Clearly, the numbers are dismal and the only solution would be a

radical, bold, brave reaction. I hope we will see this in the

upcoming election. And Spain had its credit rating downgraded last

week which makes it even harder to find the money for that growth.

to about the EU bail out fund? They are looking to the Chinese for help

on that? The Chinese have said they will do their due diligence and

they are not going to rush into any decisions to provide that fund.

They want to know what they will get in return. The EU will invest

something like $100 billion into that fund. It had 3.2 trillion, so

it has the money to do so. China says Europe has to take its own

responsibility and cannot look for a good Samaritan to come along and

bail it out. Europe should do that for itself. However, it is looking

at the details of the fund. A professor from Peking University

said that he believes Europe should not be borrowing from Trina,

however. I think it indicates two problems. Somehow, the Asians

arrived at his solution that the Europeans cannot arrive at and

secondly, if the Asians do provide a significant amount of capital, it

is going to be a case of exchanging long term benefits for short-term

gains. There have been many views. You were chatting earlier about

whether China should invest or not all stop looking at the markets, we

can see the euphoria rally we had yesterday. The FTSE is up at 19%

since its low at the start off August, so a lot of profit-taking

going on. The other markets are also reining back slightly on that

euphoria we saw yesterday with the You are watching GMT from BBC World

news. I'm Zeinab Badawi. Here are the headlines: Thousands flee the

Thai capital Bangkok as the flooding gets worse.

And head of the eurozone's bail out fund is in China for talks to

encourage Beijing to help rescue the European countries from their

debt crisis. The Queen has opened the

Commonwealth leaders' summit in Perth, Australia, with most of the

54 member countries represented. A short while ago, David Cameron

announced that the 60 nations of which Queen Elizabeth is monarch

have agreed to remove gender discrimination in the order of

succession to the throne. -- 16 nations. They also agreed to lift

the -- lift the ban on it Monarchs marrying Catholics. Attitudes have

changed fundamentally and some of the outdated rules, like the one on

succession, just do not make sense to us any more. If the idea that a

son should become monarch in place of a daughter just because he is a

man or that a future Royal cannot marry a Catholic, these are the use

of the past. Prime Minister Cameron, can I congratulate you on leading

this initiative and offer your congratulations both as a Prime

Minister and as a woman. And I am absolutely delighted that this

moment in history is happening here in Perth. To our modern minds, it

might seem simple and rational to make these changes, that there

would no longer be a discrimination against women in the way the line

of succession works and we would not continue the religious -- the

religious prohibition against marrying Catholics. But just

because they seem straightforward to our modern minds does not mean

we should underestimate their historical significance. That was

Julia Gillard, the Australian Prime Minister, at that Heads of

Government Meeting in Perth. Much of the debate in the lead-up to the

meeting has focused on Sri Lanka and international demands for an

independent inquiry into accusations of war crimes during

his 25 year civil war with the Tamil Tigers. Sri Lanka is due to

chair the next summit in 2013, something many human rights groups

consider unacceptable in the circumstances. We have Brad Adams

in the studio with us. He is the Asia director for the Human Rights

Watch group. Why do you feel Sri Lanka is not the right nation to

host such a meeting? Well, there have been 40,000 deaths in the

final stages of the war. We know the Army were targeting hospitals

and populated areas, and they told civilians to move into no-fire zone,

however, it became a free-fire zone. There have been many of these cases

and so they are effectively being rewarded for this behaviour. It is

shocking. The Commonwealth threw out Fiji for violating process and

suspended Pakistan, and now they are rewarding Sri Lanka by letting

them host this meeting, and it would be of great political benefit

to Sri Lanka to do so. The United Nations has held a report but it is

said they do not have the authority to hold such and investigation.

Where do you go from here? Members of the Human Rights Council are

also members of the Commonwealth and they have spoken out strongly

about this. We cannot find a government that is not appalled at

what the Sri Lankan government did. The Commonwealth has to decide

whether they want to be relevant. They are dithering over a point

over the human rights commissioner. Action it is being blocked. One has

to wonder what the progress of rewarding Sri Lanka is, and I think

the answer has to be that all these states are worried about

discrimination themselves some day. Thank you.

Formula One is making its debut in India this weekend, bringing its

noise and glamour to the capital, Delhi. Some people are asking,

however, whether Indians are paying too high a price for the World's

most expensive sport, in spite of the expensive track built there.

The spin machine is in overdrive. Formula One cars are raising

through the centre of Delhi. Promoting it as the new sport for a

rise in India and its burgeoning middle classes. There's a brand new

track and stadium built on time and Dom budget. The organisers hope it

will raise -- erase memories of last year's chaotic Commonwealth

Games. But even the cheapest tickets are way beyond the pockets

of most Indians. India is in the fast lane - that is the message

here, ready to host the World's most expensive sports. But is it a

sign that India is pulling ahead or just his wealthy elite? Just the

other side of the track, it is a world away from the high octane

glamour and speed of Formula One. Some have done well, getting

compensation for the race track for their farmland. They have gone on a

spending spree on new cars and houses. So, can everybody who has

received compensation for the track put their hand up. But it's a

lottery. Those with land are doing really well. Those without get

nothing. With the land gone, this farm labourer now has no work. He

cannot afford to send his children to school.

TRANSLATION: I wish Formula One had never come to India.

preparations for the multi-million- dollar race are now in Top Gear.

The owner of India's Grand Prix teams as the country is now in the

big league Costock I don't know why the media keeps focusing on the

poor part of India. Sure Bob, -- sure, we have poverty. But many

have a growing income per capita and an aspirational population that

is very successful. The market is large enough. The country is

roaring ahead in many ways. The danger is that it is becoming more