28/10/2013 Inside Out Yorkshire and Lincolnshire

welcome. Tonight, we are in Sheffield. This week scientists are

warning that we could he heading towards a miniature ice age. Good

winters like the one in 2010 become more frequent? And if so, how would

we call? Seriously, we would have to think about moving. Also, cracking

down on smugglers. We follow officers trying to stop illegal

tobacco coming into the country. And the great outdoors. An explorer

looks at the benefit of kids getting into the countryside. These are

young ones are getting proper life skills that will stay with them.

It is a typically rainy autumn day here. Apparently, we could be

returning to a period and claim it has to be known as the miniature ice

age. Scientists have been monitoring a massive drop in sunspot activity

which, in the past, has been linked with Siberian winters. They

certainly know a thing or two about cold winters here on the North York

Moors. When the fierce winter of 1962 came calling, Catherine and

John were slap bang in the front line.

It was a long one. And it started on Boxing Day. My parents came up for

Christmas and went home early because of the forecast. I had a

three`month`old child. I was snowed in for two and a half months. The

snow got deeper and deeper and deeper. It was a savage winter. 30

foot snowdrifts and even parts of the sea froze over. As the

thermometer dropped, a nearby RAF station was evacuated. I presume

they were led by somebody who knew the move pretty well. They walked

down the railway. By the time they reached the railway, most of them

were done in. Single file, all the way down the moves. Aitken passed

our house. `` they came. Hearing those recollections was very

interesting. But what I have not told them is that those types of

winters could return with a vengeance. We all know how we

struggle with periods of severe cold weather. The last taste was in 2010.

Predictable results. It was the coldest December since 1890.

Widespread travel disruption, parts of the country grinding to a halt.

But it only lasted a matter of weeks. How would we call it that

lasted several months? The idea of prolonged and severe winters is not

based on science fiction. One leading scientist thinks it could be

linked to a dramatic fall in sunspot activity. We thank the sun is quite

telling more rapidly than at any time in the last 10,000 years. ``

whitening. `` quitening. We think it ties up with cold winters in Eastern

Europe and the UK. It is becoming increasingly apparent that declining

solar activity may make the jet stream and we can and force it

further south than normal, leaving us prone to colder winters. If you

go far enough back in the history books there are two periods which

covers a clue as to which they has to which the history may bring.

Fascinating periods of UK climate, both of which coincided with weak

solar activity. The first was known as the miniature ice age, lasting

through part of the 1600s into the early 18th`century. And more

recently, in the early 19th`century, and both periods coincided with very

cold winters and your summers. The first was the more severe. During

this time the River Thames famously froze over. Whilst there were other

harsh winters, not everyone was a bad one. You might think that all

this talk is just a load of hot air. After all, the past two decades have

mainly consisted of mild, wet, windy winters. If anything, the perception

is that flooding is the main risk. What about global warming? Most

scientists believe that long`term global warming has not gone away and

that any increase in cold winters will be a regionalised event in

north`western Europe. A drop in winter temperatures could dampen

rising global temperatures but the effect is likely to be temporary.

And it is the position of our islands, under the age of

continental Europe, which makes are especially vulnerable to change. ``

makes us. We get the sort of winters that we had in 2010. Instead of the

weather approaching from the Atlantic, wet, windy, mild, it comes

from Europe, and in some respects could be regarded as coming from

Siberia. Adding a little more to the description of the weather we get.

If the weather does change, how bad could it get? This vessel has

monitored sunspot activity and believes we may be heading into more

severe territory. I estimating that at least about 8%, although it could

be more like 25, 30%, that is a much larger chance that we get... That is

not an insignificant risk. It is not. And there is the scientific

probability that the link is real. There are other factors, but I think

the link is real. So the professor believes that the link between

following sunspot activity and extend winters could be significant.

If he is right, what could that mean? We know that transport, power

supplies, energy prices, and all sensitive to price `` to the weather

systems. In 2010 prices rocketed as the weather placed a strain on the

system. So how would we cope with supplying the basics of everyday

life? We got a taste in 2010 and we saw that as extreme. It opened our

eyes into is of, well, we will see more of this. `` in terms of. So

going for what it is all about planning to have 4x4 vehicles,

things like that. We would have to look at the trends. Would it be a

one`off? If it happened next year then we would really have to look at

things, the investment, purchasing snow tires, other things that could

help supply the customers. Yes, we are vulnerable to that type of cold

spell. Short, sharp ones, we can cope with, prolonged ones, very

difficult. Sprouts are vulnerable in cold winters. The water crystals in

the cells freeze. If you handle it while it is frozen it is frozen

outbursts the cells. `` while it is frozen, it bursts. Scientists do

agree on one thing, Britain as it stands is not ready to cope with

extreme winter episodes. These are profound issues. Calder, longer

winters. Heating bills, irrespective of the background policy, are

continuing to rise. It will expose weaknesses in fuel policy and the

system. We need more close, we need to warehouse things, we need more

power stations to meet the energy demands, `` more snowploughs. All of

these things become more sensible and economic if you are going to

face any more cold winters. The indications are that we may.

Catherine and John can look back on 1962 as a severe test. And one that

they came through unscathed. How would you cope should we see a

return? I honestly do not know. Seriously we would have to think

about moving. You cannot expect people to help you, year after year,

week after week, month after month, that is too much for anybody. How

long have we got to prepare? One estimate is between 20 and 40 years.

But there are those that feel that with winters like 2010 under our

belt, the change is underway now. If you have any views on that want to

tell us about a story, please get in touch. You can do so via Facebook or

Twitter. Coming up: Out and about, we look at whether our children are

taking part in the outdoor opportunities. `` enough. Over the

last two years a staggering 3.6 William illegal cigarettes from ``

3.6 billion have been seized on their way into the country. We

joined the border force at a busy terminal as they tried to disrupt

the trade in illegal tobacco. It is a slow burning fraud costing the

taxpayer to billion pounds in lost revenue every year. Tens of

thousands of pounds of tobacco are smuggled into the UK every year by

people who do not consider it a crime. It fosters a black market and

a culture of criminality. Smugglers are not like Long John Silver

anymore. They are a mixed demographic. According to experts at

its young children at risk. Once hoped, it is a lifetime addiction.

Half will die prematurely. A bright dawn at Hull docks and the

cross`channel ferry from Belgium is carefully guiding home bleary eyed

passengers. It has been a long trip and many are glad to be home. Good

morning everybody. Today's deployment will be... Also up at the

crack of dawn at a hand`picked team from the border force. As they

prepare for the operation trying to disrupt the flow of contraband

tobacco they know that some of the passengers preparing to get off the

ferry will soon have the wind knocked out of their sails.

Commercial supply rather than identical use, if that is

identified, we should seize goods. Any questions? Let's roll. People

will purchase hand rolling tobacco in Belgium, not counterfeit, genuine

product, then bring it back in and sell it in pubs, clubs, factories,

through informal networks. If you are travelling outside the EU you

are allowed to bring a maximum of 200 cigarettes home. But within the

Eurozone it is a grey area. You can bring back what ever you can improve

as for your personal use. Today border force will try to weed out

those whose stories do not ring true. We are looking at people

unlimited means spending huge amounts of money on tobacco which is

not commensurate with your income, and also making frequent trips. Most

of the people called in today will be able to justify what they brought

back, but some will not. Passengers with a large quantity of tobacco,

IST is about ?1000 worth, obviously I need to be satisfied that they do

smoke and that the consumption rate equates to what they have. `` I

estimate it is about. I got this yesterday. After half an hour this

lady was able to justify her supply. We go about four times a year. Three

times as for pleasure, once for tobacco, and that last was the whole

year. It makes sense to stock up for the full year, it last longer. But

these two what are we leaving ?1000 of tobacco behind. `` walked away. I

am gutted. 50% of the tobacco which is sold, figures suggest that half

of it is on the black market, sold under the counter. That is why it is

important for us to protect revenue and deal with the organised crime

groups. 20 miles away from Hull Docks in this pretty village of

Market Weighton. Terrence Nolan of Hill Rise Drive was given a

suspended sentence after pleading in Hull Crown Court. He was caught

selling tobacco from a shed in his garden. There are two demand lines.

One is newspapers, obviously. Another is tobacco. If they do not

come in, they do not see what you have got there is not an opportunity

to sell them something else. It is estimated the illegal puts up to one

in five local newsagents at risk. One of the amazing things I found

being new to the retail trade was the amount of cigarette papers we

sell when you compare it to the amount of rolling tobacco you can

sell. You sell a lot more cigarette papers. It tells me that people are

not buying the tobacco legally. The revenue that is lost on tobacco is

equivalent to ?100 for every single UK taxpayer. It is real money that

is not going to the revenue. That is wrong. The consequences are not just

financial. According to anti`smoke organisations, they put young lives

at risk. We are concerned about illegal tobacco because it is more

likely to be offered to kids will stop people will sell on some of our

estates to children of the age of ten. They are more tempted to try

and they are more likely to get hooked. The earlier you get hooked,

the more likely you are to get smoking`related diseases. The

children are often offered other illegal products as well. On the

streets of Hull , where one in three adults smoke, the examples of people

prepared to buy off the black market are not hard to find. You just need

to know people and ask about. You can get it cheaper from someone who

sells foreign tobacco. It is good for me because it saves me money. If

I had a kid, I would not want them smoking at the age of 13. Because I

can get them cheap, I smoke more. I would spend ?3 50 for 20 instead of

?7 at the shop. They would go in a day. If I bought them from the shop,

I would rush them out. It is a problem which is particularly

problematic in the North. You have a culture where certain areas become

dependent on tobacco barons, organised crime groups, providing

the smoking. It fosters an entire black`market, a culture of

criminality that we want to avoid. Inside the terminal, the border.

Finished their shakedown of today's passengers. It has been a great

success. 400 passengers, stopped 10%. You can see behind us, 66 kilos

of tobacco today. But has protected ?14,000 of public money. Today's

operation has netted a decent Hall. This will be lumped together and

used as fuel in the nearby power station `` netted a decent haul.

For generations, they've provided thousands of youngsters with some of

the most formative experiences of their school life. But there are

fears council`run outdoor education centres could soon vanish

altogether. We sent our reporter to find out. Daybreak on an autumnal

Friday morning in Scarborough but this is no ordinary school day. As a

minibus waits outside Newby and Scalby Primary School, pupils are

about to head off for an experience which could alter the course of

their lives forever. This lot are heading to Whitby for outdoor

education. Some will never have been so deep into the countryside. The

memories and the social skills they picked up are likely to stay with

them for the rest of their lives. Here in north Yorkshire they are in

the minority. These children are going to a local authority run

centre which according to some experts are big becoming

increasingly under pressure `` are becoming increasingly under

pressure. The centres are not replaced. People should get back to

nature a bit more and understand what the environment is about. Good

mutating, let us go. For the staff and pupils, outdoor

education is just as important as the hard work they carry out in

lessons. This group have been picked to represent their school council

and have been sent away for a bonding session. Today the kids are

off gorge scrambling and it is about confidence, teamwork and

understanding leadership and a lot of fun. I am looking forward to see

how they get on. With plenty of obstacles to overcome, they are soon

being tested. This is really important with communication. Make

sure you are talking to each other. What do you reckon so far? Quite

exciting. Are you ready to get in the water? I am going to enjoy it.

Any scary bits? The small spaces. Can you see improvements that are

linked to this experience? Yes. We invest the school budget into this

sort of programme. We look at the barriers to the children learning in

all aspects of the school life. We can identify it quite often as

self`esteem. Not being able to solve problems. As soon as we have them

involved in experiences like this, we know they will come back into

school and into their family lives and perform much better. Many of our

pupils will say, that is the most important experience I had. North

Yorkshire's three centres are currently subsidised by a voluntary

?400,000 grant from the county's schools. But elsewhere the picture

is more precarious. Headteachers are given a pot of money called pupil

premium which they can spend anyway they want to improve performance

which does not have to include activities like this. Because it is

outside of any sort of statutory provision and therefore it is often

seen as an extra. We would argue that when used properly it really

has a positive role to play within the curriculum. Who is going to look

after me? Ready? Have you got me? Hands up, guys. I am heavier! This

is great. The kids have figured out they need to raise their game. We

are going through there. There is not much room in there.

Whatever provision people like these youngsters might have in the future,

studies have shown that carefully planned challenging activities just

like this can enhance their personal and academic lives way into the

future. Good job. Across the country, outdoor education is a

mixed picture of local authority, Private and charitable provision

with schools making individual choices about where they go and what

activities they want. One thing most centres agree on including this one

across the border in West Yorkshire is that schools often need to be

more ambitious. We have seen a lot more wrapping of cotton wool around

students. We see people less inclined to get out there and

writings. A large part of that is to do with schools and parents's

perception of how risky it is. In reality, it is not as risk filled as

they imagine `` and get stuck in. One man who calculates risk on a

daily basis is Alan Hinkes, the only Briton to find all 14 of the

world's highest mountains. Skills forged at his school in

Northallerton. Nice handhold there. He is worried not enough youngsters

are being inspired early on. We were noted for having a tough stiff upper

lip, explorer types. There is no doubt that I personally think that

people are getting softer. Young people I work with, they are not

prepared to suffer how I did. You have got to be able to suffer a

little bit. When you go out in the hills when it is raining or snowing

and have a fantastic adventure. More and more people do not go out to

play nowadays. That is why more than ever it is essential that we provide

a service to take young people into the outdoor environment. Striking a

balance between challenging our children and exposing them to

unnecessary risks is at the very core of this debate. High`profile

tragedies including the death of two leads schoolchildren, Hannah Black

and Rochelle Cauvet, they were swept to their deaths while attempting to

cross Stainforth Beck on a school trip, it has led to the outdoor

education industry becoming one of the most tightly regulated and

monitored in the country. The risks you are looking out for young people

who do not get involved in sport and other activities, it is the base

thing in terms of fitness, but there is also the problem in that if you

take away the activities, you are taking away something that will help

them build independence. Make sure it is nice and tight. One. Two.

Three. Go. Fantastic.

With more children living in urban areas, the opportunity for them to

get experiences in the wild are narrowing according to the man in

charge of North Yorkshire and's outdoor education. If local

authority centres like this lose their funding, what will happen? We

know it enhances education and provides a really rich environment,

the children who need it will not get it. We are talking about equal

access for all. Yes, it is really in Portland. The researchers showing

that people in receipt of income support and in less affluent areas,

they receive less residential and outdoor education and those children

in more affluent areas. I think what local authority is about is

providing equal access. It is a challenge for all of us. The centres

themselves and the schools. We have to ensure what good quality looks

like and pushed the centres and the schools up to another level to get

the really challenging activities where they are on their own and are

being pushed. You may not be able to get A*s for gorge scrambling, but

these youngsters are getting proper life skills, a healthy sense of

exploring, teamwork, leadership, sense of confidence. Marvellous.

What do you think of it? Excellent. Really fun. A really good time. Some

bits were hard. When people were stuck me you had to help them. What

did you learn? You can all work together, even if you don't really

know the people that much. It would be a shame if cutbacks and a more

risk averse culture were allowed to block the pathway for the next

generation of adventurers to get the kind of early support they need and

to transform thousands of lives. Thanks for letting me join you.

Goodbye. That is all for tonight from

Sheffield and indeed for this series of programme at Crewe. I will see

you again in January when we will be back from more stories from where

you live `` this series of Inside Out.

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