01/05/2014 The View

Tonight, the political storm continues with Gerry Adams still in

custody here at the serious crime suite at Antrim Police Station,

where he's being questioned about the IRA abduction and murder of

Jean. McConville. Sinn Fein claims the arrest is politically motivated

and says the timing is designed to do as much electoral damage to the

party as possible. We'll have analysis from Belfast and Dublin.

Also tonight, head-to-head with Anna Lo and Jim Allister, as Alliance

takes on the TUV in the first of our Euro election debates. And I have

come to Scotland to see if Alex Salmond's independence dream can

make it past the winning post. And in Commentators' Corner, it's the

return of Professors Wilford and Heenan with their take on events.

And you can, of course, join the debate on Twitter - that's

@BBCtheview. The Sinn Fein leader, Gerry Adams,

remains in custody at Antrim PSNI station. It's the first time in the

modern era that the leader of a mainstream party in Ireland has been

arrested and questioned in such circumstances. And it's the latest

development in the painful saga to find those responsible for the

abduction and murder of Jean McConville in 1972. Mr Adams, who

has always denied any involvement in the case, had arranged to meet

detectives in Antrim yesterday evening. The fact that he was

arrested and detained has led his party to claim political motives

were behind the move. It is my opinion that those elements, old bad

elements within the PSNI and reactionary elements within unionism

have politically coalesced in the choice of timing of this interview.

What is essential is that the PSNI are able to discharge their

responsibilities without any fear of the consequences if it involves

political people. Therefore the central issue and the strengthening

of the political process is the fact that no one is above the law. I see

his arrest as a deliberate attempt to influence the outcome of the

elections due to take pace in three weeks' time north and south on this

island. So how is the continuing saga of Mr Adams' alleged former

life in the IRA playing out on both sides of the border? With me in the

studio is our Political Editor, Mark Devenport, who wrote a biography of

Mr Adams in 1997 and in Dublin is the Irish Times Political Editor,

Stephen Collins. How surprised wake you at the timing and nature of the

arrests of Mr Adams? I suppose we had forewarning in that we had the

arrest and subsequent charging of Ivor Bell, who was an active

Republican in the same area of Belfast as Mr Adams around that

time. And we had the offer from Gerry Adams to talk to the police.

But given the lack of Presidents for a party leader in what is now a

mainstream party being arrested for such a serious crime, it was a

shock. There was also bad shock that he was not simply being interviewed

under caution, despite the fact that he said he had gone voluntarily,

that the police moved in and arrested him and have now held him

overnight. I suppose we should not be surprised at the reaction of

colleagues of Mr Adams, including we believe a conversation between

Martin McGuinness and the Prime Minister? Yes, Sinn Fein put out

their account of a conversation in which Martin McGuinness said he

supports the PSNI energetically pursuing all investigations but that

some investigation said he believed or pursued more vigorously than

others. A sickly contrasting the handling of this case with cases

like the killing in Ballymurphy. What have you learned about the IRA

past of Gerry Adams when you're writing biography? Gerry Adams has

denied having any membership of the IRA. It was pretty clear when we

researched the biography that so far as security sources were concerned

that that did not stack up. We got quite a lot of Corporation from

those security sources. They claimed that in the early 1970s when Mr

Adams was arrested during internment, that he admitted to IRA

membership. But that admission because of the circumstances of the

interview would never stand up in a court of law. He was then

subsequently charged in 1978 with IRA membership of the case was

dropped for lack of sufficient evidence. But if you speak to

anyone, police or army, they would take a view on that denial that he

would not want to say anything that might have landed him in court once

again rather than actually giving it any credence. Stephen Collins, how

is this development being viewed in the Republic? It came as a big

surprise, the notion of a political leader being interviewed, being

arrested and questioned about the murder is something new. Some

political leaders down here had been under pressure, the Labour leader,

his Deputy Prime Minister was under pressure for not doing as well as

Sinn Fein. So this arrest has come as a shock to the system. The other

parties will certainly try to capitalise on it. Taoiseach and

Kenny was asked about it today and refuse to go into the rights and

wrongs of his arrest. But he spoke about the McConville case and the

fact that a widowed mother of ten was taken away and murdered. Piano

foil have come in as well and attacked the deputy leader of Sinn

Fein who was seen in the Republic is perhaps a softer image of Sinn Fein.

She attacked the PSNI and is in town now herself being attacked for

undermining the PSNI by the two main parties here. What do you make of

the timing, Sinn Fein activist say it is a deliberate attempt to

undermine the elections. Sinn Fein had been doing well in the opinion

polls here in both European and local elections. It looked as if

they were getting around 20% of the vote which would give them three

seats in the European elections and perhaps trouble the number of

council seats. I think this episode is a reminder of the past of the

republican movement, past they do not refer to very much. You see the

posters on the lamp post down here and you would not guess where Sinn

Fein came from and the journey they have made. So it is a reminder to

people who may not know much about the past Sinn Fein, what has

happened. And it certainly cannot be good for them. I think it will give

their opponents a lot of opposition and might cause people to question

their credentials. So it has come at a bad time for them. What about the

image of Gerry Adams as the leader himself, what personal damage could

do to him? I'd say it could do some personal damage but it is not any

great surprise. People know that he has been around for a long time and

it is generally assumed that he was involved with the IRA otherwise he

would not have had the major role he had in the peace process. But what

might do more damage in the Republic is the fact that figures like Mary

Lou McDonald, who are not associated at all with the trouble is, I now

been dragged into it because they are defending Gerry Adams and

attacking the PSNI, raising all kinds of issues which Sinn Fein seem

to have moved away from. Just one final question, what are the

implications politically, Mark, of what happens next. I suppose he will

either presumably be released or charged. It will depend largely on

what happens next. In terms of the electoral standing in the north,

that is less prone to be affected by developments of this kind are no

growth in the South. So I think the Sinn Fein machine is here and will

go ahead. It is possible but if Gerry Adams walks away and there is

no charge brought against him, he will say he has answered all the

questions and chin fame could even get a bit of sympathy vote -- Sinn

Fein. Mark Devenport and Stephen Collins, thank you.

Now, what would an independent Scotland look like? Will there be

customs checkpoints? What will the currency be? We sent our Political

Correspondent, Gareth Gordon, in search of the answers. And what he

found was a land full of yet more questions, and little certainty

about what a yes vote might mean for Scots or for us when travelling

there. Early morning in the port of line

and Scotland looms once more. -- Larne. The captain goes back and

forth several times a week. Soon his fellow Scots will decide if the

journey becomes international. But the way ahead is not

straightforward. If it is a yes vote will we have to change or

passports, how will that affect customers? How will it affect taxes,

perhaps. For example if you're on the Dublin to Liverpool one, at the

moment there is the possibility that seafarers can get back there income

tax. Might it be the same for Scotland? We do not know. There are

so many questions that have not been answered yet. The cruel sports a

submarine at Faslane, another thing which could be a thing of the past

if Scotland votes yes in September. On a clear day you can see Scrabble

Tower. There are many links with Donaghadee. I'm worried about my

pension and the defence of the country. What happens the day after

it becomes independent. Do the Navy and RAF go? Then there would be no

defence for the country whatsoever. So what are the odds was Mac they

should know here at this racecourse. The Scottish saltire is flanked by

union flags, but for how much longer? There's no money about for

it just now. So the no vote is likely to prevail? It looks that

way. And bookies are never wrong was Mac sometimes. But others believe

that the yes campaign is coming up on the rails. It could soon be neck

and neck. Time to check the latest form. It is all in the name. And

there is a horse running today called opt out. That could be an

omen. It is not one of the favourites but I'm told it is a good

long shot that. -- Bret. ?5 each way on Opt Out, please. Based on

ability. If Opt Out was an omen, let's hope

Alex Salmond wasn't watching, it finished nowhere. The punters in

general weren't much sold on independence. It's a ridiculous idea

in a country that will go downhill. I like the relationships with the

other parts of Britain. I don't see why we need to be independent to

better our country. We are too small. I would like it but I don't

know. I haven't made a decision. Rodney Wallace from Temple Patrick

has lived in Ayr from several years and he's concerned about a lack of

hard information. I'm keeping an open mind. I want to know the facts.

I doubt whether we'll get a consensus or we'll definitely know

what is going to happen. It will be a motion decision as to whether

people want Scotland to go alone or not. It has to be based on more than

a motion? I would agree, but I can't see the way the debate is going at

the my opinion, we won't know enough of the facts. We were approached by

an SNP councillor who disagrees. They say, I can't make up my mind

just now, some may well on 18th September go to the ballot box and

vote with their heart, not their heads, thinking about the old

British pound, the colonial thing. We are keeping the Queen, the

monarchy and the European Union. In Stranraer, this former policeman

who also represents the SNP admits there's confusion, but denies it's

the fault of the yes campaign. It's not them saying there'll be

passport checks and all the rest of it. If that was to happen, it's not

going to be the customs that puts it up. Will there be customs and

checkpoints? Certainly not on this site. I can't answer for what the

rest of the UK government would do. That doesn't reashire Robert who

says if the answer ise, he may leave -- reassure. I would consider going

back to Donaghee if it doesn't go that way. The Captain says the

stakes couldn't be higher. It's not a case if we don't like it we can

change our minds and rejoin in five years. It's a colossal decision, it

really is. The referendum is the most important election the people

of Scotland will ever take part in. Surely it's a concern then that so

many people will make their choice without being fully armed with all

the facts they need. Just in case you hadn't noticed, we

are in the middled of a double election campaign in. Three weeks'

time, the polls will have closed in the local government and European

elections. Between now and then on the View, we'll hear from the

candidates. Anna Lowe from the Alliance Party and Jim Allister of

the TUV who was elected for the DUP in 2004. You are both welcome to the

programme. Jim Allister, why should people vote for you on May 2 #27bed

first of all? Two reasons, first to improve the representation in

Brussels. Most people in Northern Ireland wonder why they haven't

heard, apart from at election time, of the three sitting MEPs. That

conveys a certain message. They have heard of Jim Allister and what he

does in politics. Secondly, it's a perfect opportunity for the people

of Northern Ireland to pass their verdict on the dismal performance of

Stormont and how better to do that than to vote for the sing of

effective voice of opposition in Stormont who, despite the fact we

are in opposition, has been able to make my mark there. People want a

strong voice, they know they'll get it with Jim Allister. Anna Lowe, why

should people give you preference? I'm pro-Europe and I believe

Europe's done a lot for Northern Ireland to help it to improve

infrastructure and the environment and the economy. It's a huge market,

500 million people, 730 billion pounds worth of the economy, 509% of

our trade is within Europe and 70,000 jobs, 90,000 jobs dependent

on the EU -- 50% of our trade. We'll represent everyone. We are a cross

community party and will work for the best interests of the society as

a whole. Jim Allister, you are clearly a

Euro-sceptic. Where would you stand in the future if there should be a

UK referendum on EU membership? Do you want us out? I want a referendum

and yes, I think we'd be better off out because we are currently playing

?17 billion a year of hard-earned UK taxpayers' money into the black hole

that is the EU. We get back less than half. That means that every day

the EU is costing us ?23.6 million. That's ?1 million for every hour. On

top of that, it dictates an sets our immigration policy, our social

policy, our trade policy. You cannot even make a trade agreement with

another nation without it being through the EU. Anna talks about 50%

of the trade being with the other EU member states. It's not. It's fallen

now to below 43% and is falling. The main trading parter ins are outside

the EU, so there is just as other countries, like Norway and

Switzerland have done well outside the EU, so would the United Kingdom

and the sooner we establish our own national sovereignty, the better.

There is a contradiction because you are asking for people to vote grour

to be their representative in a place you don't actually support,

somewhere you want to destroy and pull out of. That's a mixed message?

It's a clear message that if you want someone who'll fight for you,

so long as we are there to get the best deal, better to send somebody

who's no ideological commitment to it just as I haven't to the DUP,

Sinn Fein and Stormont. I look forward to this not being a

five-year term and I look forward to this being a shortened term by

virtue of a referendum which will take us out of the EU. Anna Lo, you

don't want to see a referendum? No. We don't. I think it will be

disastrous if we left the EU. Think of the 90,000 jobs. Where are

you going to find jobs for these people? Look at the farming

community, without CAP, how are we going to produce our food. The EU's

paid 2 billion euros since 1995 to help us with peace and

reconciliation. We have got more out of Europe than really we in Northern

Ireland have to put into Europe. What do you make of the figureses

that the net cost is something like ?8 billion a year? I think 70% of

our business sectors want us to stay in Europe. If you're out of Europe,

you'll not get a look into trading with the EU. If you want to, you

still have to have the same standards, same quality, before you

can trade. Sorry, Anna, your figures are so wrong. Let's talk about the

culture policy, Jim Allister? Just a moment. The view has been

demonstrated to be utterly flawed because the Alliance Party wanted us

to join the euro and we have seen how disastrous that's been and how

it would have been for us. Of course Anna wants us to join the bankrupt

Irish Republic. I'm going to ask Anna Lo about the euro in a moment.

I wonder what you make of the figures in the common agricultural

policy, it's worth upward of ?250 million a year for farmers and the

rural economy. What would we do as far as the agricultural spend is

concerned? We'd have our share of the ?17 billion that we'd no

longberg wasting. Can you guarantee that a British Government and

Westminster would give us that? It would sustain food production, of

course it would and there'd still be the option of maintaining the single

payment which is the bedrock of that. If you aren't wasting ?17

billion on supporting other nations in the European Union, you have that

money to support your own people. Even though it would be under huge

pressure for education and health? Of course, but it's an extra ?17

billion and even we in Northern Ireland who maybe get back more of

our own money than other parts of the UK in the EU, even we are a net

trader. If the UK left the EU, we'd be totally isolated. The business

sector don't want us to lead. The US government has been talking about

not wanting us to leave Europe. It's going to be really very, very bad

and dangerous even to talk about leaving the EU because with inward

investment, people look at Northern Ireland as a favourable place

because we are English-speaking and we are also within the EU. Without

the EU, they are going to go to Holland, the Republic of Ireland.

We'd still be a trading nation, without the shackles. How do you

counter Jim Allister's argument that basically if we pulled out of the

Europe, we could have another ?8.6 billion a year of our own money to

spend on things like supporting farmers? Yes, but then we'll lose

all the trade with the EU. Why would you lose the trade? Why does that

follow? If you are not within the single market, you will not get as

easily as we can now to get the trade with Europe. We trade with

other countries that aren't in the European Union? Well, with

difficulties. I have people ringing me up from dairy companies to say

they couldn't get into China because the regulation there is are so

different to ours. When you are within Europe, you have the common

quality standard, we can trade whenever we want and produce

products the way we want because it's all standardised. We have a

huge trade deficit with the rest of the EU. The growth market for the

trade is with the Brit countries, not with the EU. The EU is a break

on our development and imposes all the shackles. That's not true. They

would entangle us more in that just as they wanted to in the disastrous

Europe. Europe's helped us an awful lot in improving our environment.

Without Europe, we would not have the same clean water, clean air and

recycling. I want to ask you both about your own chances in this

election. Anna Lo, your party came sixth last time with 5.5%, 27,000

votes. You would need an electric travel earthquake to win a seat this

time? Well, we'll do our best and I think we have done very well. In

south Belfast, I got 20% of the vote and I have a track record of being

very hard-working and easy certainly present a progressive, modern and

inclusive image of Northern Ireland in Europe. Your party leader told me

on the day your launched your campaign that he was confident you'd

better your party's best ever performance, 6.8% in 1979. That oo

your real target isn't it? We'd like to increase our representation. So

you don't expect to win the seat? We'll do our best. Jim Allister, do

you seriously expect to win a seat, your votes falling from 32% in 2004

when you were the DUP candidate to 13.7% in 2009? You managed to lose

110,000 votes? And I stunned the commentators by getting 66,000

votes, being within touching distance. The other 76 five years

earlier... I'm fighting to win and I believe the tide is in my favour

because people is seen what one determined TV voice can do in

Stormont and realise they can have the same in Brussels. Be honest, you

are fighting for... It's one that's... Fifth place would be good?

I'm not fighting for fifth, I'm fighting to win. I believe the

message is resonating more and more with people who every day see the

skullduggery of the peace process, see all the corruption that went on

there and are gives gusted with the fact that we have a political

system. We are not even allowed an opposition. And the challenge of

course from some of your opponents is that by standing and potentially

doing well, you could shred the unionist vote and see one single

unionist and two nationalists? Nonsense. You cannot split a PR

vote, provided people use their preferences through the unionists.

Provided they turn out to vote and they transfer? So of course if they

don't turn out to vote, but but being in the field and affording

another colour and opportunity, I'm likely to attract more people to

vote. Let me remind you, in the last time, it was the 25,000 transfers

from Jim Allister to Diane Dodds that got her ahead of the SDLP. She

wouldn't have been an MEP without the TUV vote the last time. So those

who talk about shredding the vote were very glad when I maximised the

vote. Do you think you could have scared off pro-unionist voters who

might have backed you, or transferred to you, before you made

your comments about supporting the United Ireland several weeks ago?

The Alliance party support the principle of consent. My view is

very long time. Why did you express it was Mac I was asked a question

and I gave that answer. But I very much support the principle of

consent. That means the status of Northern Ireland will always be

decided by the people of Northern Ireland. I refuse to be pigeonholed

into either the nationalist or Unionist camp. Well you have said

you support a united Ireland. In the very long term, I said it might not

even happen in my lifetime. I refuse to be rich and hold onto the

Unionist or nationalist camps because I am not. . But my

motivation into politics is about building a shared society. That is

why I joined the Alliance party. Just ask you both about Gerry Adams,

Sinn Fein said the arrest was an attempt to influence the outcome of

the elections. Do you think it will? I think it is nothing to do

with that. My only surprise and question is why it took so long to

arrest Gerry Adams to investigate this gruesome murder. Since -- Sinn

Fein said the timing agenda for them then to portray that as political

intervention is nonsense. And Martin McGuinness was on the phone to David

Cameron. The murder of Jean McConville was very tragic, a young

woman leaving behind ten children. There is a police investigation

going on and due process and the rule of law must be allowed to

continue. Thank you both. And next week we'll hear from the Ulster

Unionist and SDLP candidates. So, as election fever begins to kick in,

let's find out what our two professors think of it all in

Commentators' Corner. It's a welcome return for Deirdre Heenan and Rick

Wilford. Good to see you both. The story which is dominated the news

agenda for the last 24 hours is the arrest of Gerry Adams. Could it

influence the outcome of the elections? I do not think in the

North except if Gerry Adams was to be charged. I think being arrested

and questioned is one thing and that has created our wobble. If he were

to be charged I think that would be seismic and in those circumstances

it would have an effect on Sinn Fein support in the Republic. But I'm

less certain that it could have any effect in the North. But this

accusation of political policing is difficult to swallow. For instance,

had the PSNI deferred arresting him, which I do not think within the

Sinn Fein version the script, until after the election and it then

transpired that they had been seen to make a decision not to intervene,

that would be a much more explicit instance I think of so-called

political policing. The timing I think is of Gerry Adams's setting,

not the PSNI. I think even seasoned political commentators say they are

surprised and it is without precedent. Conspiracy theorists

would be having a field day. They could say that Sinn Fein

choreographed this carefully with that trip to Antrim and the

interview with ITE. And clearly from the Fury, it has not happened in the

way they thought. We only had to listen to Mary Lou McDonald, her

fury clear to see. Blaming the old guard, blaming Jim Allister, naming

everyone. They seem to be caught on the hop by this. And really I think

it is not what they expected to happen. Other conspiracy theorists

would say it is exactly what they wanted to happen because this has

dogged Gerry Adams and will allow him once and for all to clear his

name before the elections and he could even get a bounce out of it, a

sympathy vote. What we do not know what the outcome will be. But I

think for the younger voters in the South who really know nothing about

the violence in the north, this will be an eye-opener for them and could

jeopardise that younger vote. This is a different story for them to

have two digests. It could bounce badly for Sinn Fein but also bounce

very well for them. I think what matters is what happens in the next

24 hours. I am surprised that he has been held for a second night because

it suggests to me, I'm not privy to what is going on, but it does

suggest or imply that there could be more to this than the Boston takes.

And for Martin McGuinness to be speaking about the dark side of the

PSNI, we have not heard that kind of language for a long time. But they

are on the Policing Board. That is a whole other discussion! Thank you

both. That's it from The View for this week. Join me for Sunday

Politics at 11.35 here on BBC One. For now, though, goodbye.