15/05/2014 The View

Tonight - boom and bust. The economy's on the up, but huge cuts

are coming down the track with millions set to be lost from

departmental budgets. I'll be asking the Finance Minister, Simon

Hamilton, and the Education Minister, John O'Dowd, if we're

heading for a political bust-up over our new budget? Also tonight - Tough

competition our new budget? Also tonight - Tough

but who'll be the winners and losers as farmer takes on farmer for a

share of the European funding pot? There is a lot of protectionism of

the status quo. People are dependent on that for the survival of the

business. We'll hear what our European candidates, Martina

Anderson and Diane Dodds, have to say about that and other Euro issues

with just one week to go to polling day. And joining me in Commentators'

Corner with their thoughts on another busy political week are

Professors Heenan and Wilford. And you can, of course, join the debate

on Twitter - that's @BBCtheview. When next week's elections are over

and the political focus shifts back onto the Executive, the main item on

the agenda will be getting a new budget signed off. That doesn't look

like it'll be an easy task, though, budget signed off. That doesn't look

involving, as it will, major cutbacks in

involving, as it will, major because of the politicians' failure

involving, as it will, major to agree how to deal with

Westminster's welfare reform programme. The Finance

Westminster's welfare reform Simon Hamilton, has been finalising

the figures involved and he joins me, along with the Education

Minister, John O'Dowd. Simon Hamilton - How much does your

proposed budget reduce overall spending by? We are already facing a

public spending environments moving forward. That is clear when you

listen to the Chancellor and the recent budget, and recent figures

that the Treasury are producing. The UK is facing difficult times ahead.

The budget is set to be reduced by 1.5%, a to ?200 million. This year,

we are already dealing with ?100 million worth of deductions. We

happens to agree with a welfare reform package. That is ?100 million

that could be spent on services like education, health, jobs and events.

Edwin Poots has highlighted 70 million of a cut in the health

budget, where will the rest of it million of a cut in the health

for the Executive and they have to agree what they want to do with

for the Executive and they have to reductions because of the failure of

moving forwards with welfare reform. I would suggest that if you do that

on a pro rata basis, take ?100 million of every department, you

would have helped suffering, and you would have education suffering. The

jobs and the economy would suffer by ?200 million. It is a small

departments that is trying to bring in jobs and investment. Health is a

departments that is trying to bring Northern Ireland. It is a lot of

people who are going to suffer. John, how you going to cope with a

reduction? If that is what is going to happen, then that is a matter for

the Executive. Surely, we are having the wrong discussion. The discussion

we should be having is how we present a united front to the

British government and stand up to them over the cuts. That is instead

of the day you be having hot dogs and champagne like they did last

week. They should be working with their Executive colleagues. I

thought it was peanuts and Diet Coke. I do not know if you barbecue

peanuts but whatever they were doing in that garden of Downing Street,

they were not standing up for the most vulnerable. That conversation

has passed. The Treasury has made it clear that the cuts are happening.

We mist the boat. The conversation is not over. We have turned around

and said we are not prepared to implement Tory policy on this. The

conversation is not over and I think it is regrettable that the D U P

have decided, for whatever reason, to form a relationship with the Tory

party. That is a huge mistake on their behalf, and is a mistake for

the ordinary people in society. Why have you closed the conversation

down and accepted the Tory cuts? VDU people try to exert influence on the

Prime Minister and everybody else. -- the EU P. We have shown a united

front. I've had conversations with the Treasury and we have a package

in place which will ameliorate the worst effects of welfare reform for

people in Northern Ireland. That ensures that the Bedroom Tax does

not affect people who are in housing in Northern Ireland, which the

Deputy First Minister has agreed to. There are a package of measures

which are the envy of the UK. The Tory government have said they will

not do anything. If you listen to Labour, there is no way they will do

anything radically different to what the Tories are doing. This is a

matter of getting on with a good package and is ensuring that the

vulnerable people in Northern Ireland do not suffer because they

cannot catch the care they require. That is the point you have heard

before and point that the DUP make repeatedly. Martin McGuinness has

not signed up to this. This package, which is a package and we recognise

progress was made on this package, as a result of the DUP and Sinn Fein

working together, it is going to cost tax payers. It is going to cost

?40 million per annum. Why are we forced to live up to that cost as

well as losing other welfare reforms? The package which we have

negotiated and which is a reasonable step forward is also costing money.

Let's go back to the British government and face up to them in a

united wave. It is a good package and we can move forwards with this.

These are reforms that have been implemented already. Let me ask you

about a couple of things. You mentioned that two or ?3 million

could be lost. It is a departments that sells Northern Ireland outside

of this place. Are you saying that the tourist board will have to think

long and hard about supporting things like the Irish open? We had

the Giro last week and we have attracted thousands of jobs. We have

had reports about how Northern Ireland have had their best year on

record, supporting 11,000 jobs. That is good news for Northern Ireland,

and if the Executive decides to spread the cost of not moving

forwards, inflicting a wound on ourselves, then I am afraid I think

the only way to move forward is if everybody takes a reduction, whether

it is ?20 million in education or ?2 million elsewhere. I do not want to

seem jobs lost in Northern Ireland but the reality is that we all have

two live up to the fact. Tens of millions of pounds were handed back

last year. The DUP handed back tens of millions of pounds back and we

managed to do all of those attractions that were referred to.

It is worth noting that the DUSD did not live up to its social housing

Bill. Some of the jobs and investment did not come forward and

that is understandable, the economy has been moving, and we are in

recovery, but some of the jobs have not come forward in the same time.

Now the jobs have come forward, the economy is moving forward. What

about the IT cost of all of this? Depending on what happens, there

could be a cost of ?1 billion if we decide to go it alone. Are those

figures right? We have done some work with a departments to have

consulted with the Department for Work and Pensions, and if we do not

go ahead with welfare reform, we will have a situation where the old

computer system is not going to pay the benefits, and we face the

prospect of people not getting their benefits pay in 2016. We have to

back our own IT system. benefits pay in 2016. We have to

purchased the old knackered system that they have in England, or you

build your own that they have in England, or you

systems benefits many people and cost hundreds of millions of pounds.

This is a cost to the people of Northern Ireland. There is no cost.

I was an executive Minister, and I asked for costs, and we cannot

receive them. Of course there is a cost. You cannot go into PC World

and by this! If you need a new PC system, you will need costs. It is

worth noting that the IT system in England is not working, and they

have only brought a few thousand people onto Universal Credit, and

they need millions. The British government have turned around and

said they are going to find our Executive. Are you saying there is

no problem and Simon should calm down because there are so much money

left at the end of the year so you can throw it all back in the money

box? Of course there is a problem but it is how we approach the

problem and I believe that the Executive needs to present a united

front to the DUP. The DUP are making a serious error of judgement by

quoting the Tories. John, a serious error of judgement by

the one who are threatening. You are threatening vulnerable people in

Northern Ireland by not showing the leadership that is required on this

issue. leadership that is required on this

suffer any leadership that is required on this

sorted? It's needs to be sorted in the next month. We need a decision.

What about in June? It will be sorted out. We will make real

progress for the benefit of our society. Thank you very much indeed.

progress for the benefit of our Now, the image of our rolling

countryside may be something like offer postcard, but divisions have

emerged in farming sector and money is at the heart of it, especially

the distribution of European subsidies. Europe is demanding

changes in the way their cash is shared out, and as our reporter

reports, it is a political issue that has pitched up land against low

land and farm against Pharma. It is a magnet for farmers from

across Northern Ireland they come to enjoy the Balmoral show. For all the

Carnival feeling this is a community that is suffering. This has the

potential to be divisive. Our concern was that this would set

sector against sector and farm against Obama. We have been accused

of many things over the last few months, being unproductive, looking

after our own greed, massive shifts of money going into

after our own greed, massive shifts productive area. At stake is the

hand million pounds a year from Europe which is distributed in the

form of an annual subsidy payments. The way in which the ?300 million is

divided up amongst the farms is set to change. Depending on the system

adopted, some farms could see a major increase in their annual

subsidy while others could see a substantial decrease. Like other

regions, Northern Ireland must submit its proposals to Brussels in

a few months' time. Hill farmers are demanding a bigger share of the pot.

We are basically out to get fair play loans for farmers who have been

spoken down for years. The vast majority of the cattle here adds to

the lowlands. They created the wealth for those people and that has

been taken away from us. There is a lot of protectionism of the status

quo and we want to try and readdress that balance. In disadvantaged

farming areas, the demand is for a immediate switch to a flat subsidy

payments, and move which will channel more in European subsidy

payments to Upland areas. With no extra cash in the subsidy pot, the

extra money for hill farms would be at the expense of lowland farms.

Some would lose 40% of their annual payment and that is resisted by

many. We want as little as distortion as possible. This is a

vital lifeline for farmers and anyone in receipt of payment is

dependent on that for the survival of the business so it is about

starting off with a process and giving the industry as long as

possible to wean itself off the single farm payment. As in so many

political debates, there is history. Back when the current system of

subsidy payments was designed, lowland farms fared best. The

rationale was simple. Fertile lowland farms received the most but

that left many hill farmers feeling aggrieved. They felt the subsidy

system was stacked against them. There are complaints about how the

hill farmers have worse land and do not deserve as much. They have less

damage to the climate, all the things, environmentally and

biodiversity are contributing to that. I think it is right that it is

spread evenly. It is a startling fact that 87% of total farming

income in Northern Ireland is represented by the annual subsidy

payment from Europe. Without that, most farm businesses would collapse.

As would thousands of processing jobs in dairy industries. The single

farm payment is a key factor and it pays a key part in the income in the

-- of farmers. Canned beef and sheep production still continue to be a

viable enterprise? The most important thing is nothing too

quickly, that we can transition, we can get used to something because we

do not need shocks. There is a lot of money invested. Banks are

difficult to deal with if you them money. I think we all need time to

get used to a new environment, and certainly, we will have to deal with

quotas gone, a new marketplace, no sort of support. If we lose the

single farm payment too quickly, it will certainly put people 's backs

to the wall. Time is running out for Northern Ireland to make its

proposals to Europe, and while the Agriculture Minister Michele O'Neil

says she wants a deal, farm subsidies represents another

decisive issue needing executive approval.

Martin Cassidy reporting. And tonight the DUP and Sinn Fein

candidates join me live in the studio - Diane Dodds and Martina

Anderson respectively - both of them outgoing MEPs.

You are both very welcome to the programme. Martin Anderson, you made

your position about farm subsidies crystal clear by calling for flat

rate subsidies. Why do you think such a change is necessary? There

are thousands of farmers here in the North saving below the average

single farm payment. I have visited farmers. I went to Peter Gallagher

and others and got an experience with regard to the kind of

productive farming that goes on in family farms. These farmers deserve

a fair and equal distribution of the single farm payment. That said,

while I recognise that there are a lot of farmers who do not want it

brought in right away, I think that we could go through a transition,

but that transition would need to be sooner rather than later. That goes

further than your Sinn Fein colleague at Stormont, Michelle

O'Neill, who has still not made her position clear? I have been engaging

with Michelle and Michelle has been engaging with others, but Michelle

is acutely aware, that there are thousands of farmers who are

receiving below the single farm payment. Michelle wants this to be

distributed equally and fairly. There are 2.5 billion coming in here

to the North over a seven-year period and we have argued for that

in Europe. What we need to do is make sure every farmer, family farms

are able to get access to that so they can all benefit. Diane Dodds,

isn't greater economy a good goal? It has been my privilege to serve as

a member of the agriculture committee in Europe. We fought for

the CAP reform for regional flexibility. We have an opportunity

here in Northern Ireland to make CAP reform fit the conditions of

Northern Ireland farming. Northern Ireland farming

Northern Ireland farming. Northern the food industry, which earns over

5 billion every year for economy. But it has become a

political issue now? The point we must realise in all of this is there

is change coming but that change must be managed, that change must be

slow. Why must it be slow? Family farms in Northern Ireland have their

slow. Why must it be slow? Family business model setup. Any sudden

shocks will business model setup. Any sudden

business. We have an important beef industry which exports 75% of

everything that we produce industry which exports 75% of

Northern Ireland. That beef industry will be at stake if we go for sudden

transition. You think a phase change rather than an immediate change?

What we now need is for the Agriculture Minister to bring some

certainty and clarity for the industry, to allow farmers to have

their farm business model adjusted over a long period of time, and we

need that clarity and certainty soon. The Minister has refused to do

that so far and we look forward to her bringing how proposals. We look

forward to those proposals coming before executive colleagues. And we

look forward to an agreed consensus with both the industry and with

other people in The Executive. But there would be people who favour

more immediate change. What is your message to them? We have said we

would support productive farming wherever that productive farming is

in Northern Ireland. What about small farmers who I DUP supporters?

Small farmers who are very productive farmers, many of our beef

farmers farm small acreages but farm intensively. They are very

productive and they are creating money from Northern Ireland. Martina

Anderson, you have been an MEP since 2012. Are you confident you will

beat Bairbre de Brun's success and 26% of the vote? That will be up to

the voters. The one thing I am confident about is my track record

over the last two years is there for everyone to examine. I think the

voters themselves will recognise that I am the MEP that is standing

up for a lot of people in Europe. I am not taking the voters for

granted. Standing up for a lot of people and I know you have been

telling me you have been out on the hustings and out on the pavement

every day for the last number of weeks, how many unionist areas have

you canvassed? I have been in every constituency in the North. You ask

me about unionist areas as if they are no-go areas. There are no no-go

areas for Republicans. What kind of response have you had? I am

pleasantly surprised with the engagement that I'm having with

people but I would not take the voters for granted. I have been all

over the North. Just to add to that, I have taken a number of delegations

to Europe because my message, when I was selected in 2012, was to bring

Europe to you and bring you to Europe. Chamber of commerce, both

traditions, three sporting codes, GAA, soccer and rugby, the list is

endless, I have taken both traditions to Europe. Diane, I think

it's fair to say you delivered a fairly disappointing result for the

DUP back in 2009. You lost 87,000 votes on the previous election, can

you make up any of that lost ground? I will be setting my record of work

before the people of Northern Ireland. That is a record of five

years of work, the MEP with the best parliamentary record in Northern

Ireland, in the top five MEPs across the United Kingdom and of the top

10% of all MEPs right across the countries that are members of the

European Parliament. That is also balanced by a record of work at

home, where I have held meetings in every part of Northern Ireland. 120

meetings over the last number of years, dealing with funding, four

funding directories, money directly into communities. That is the record

I will be setting for the people of Northern Ireland. I will be asking

for their support and I have been across Northern Ireland. I have

stood for the last two days at the Balmoral Show. I have spoken to

thousands of people who have come through the stand at Balmoral. I am

pleased that there is a good mood among the unionism and a mood among

Unionism where it is congregating around the strongest party that has

the strength and the strategic vision to take Northern Ireland

forward. I want to ask you both about a referendum on EU membership.

Diane Dodds, if there is an EU referendum and the Prime Minister

has promised that will happen at the end of 2016 if he is still in power,

what would your position be on that? We have always said the EU of 2014

is not in the best interests of the United Kingdom and the people of

Northern Ireland. If there was a referendum tomorrow we would ask the

people of Northern Ireland to come out of the EU. What is your message

to the farmers who depend on EU subsidies? What we are actually

saying is, or what is the actual reality for Northern Ireland is that

the Prime Minister has promised renegotiation. We are saying to the

Prime Minister that must be fundamental renegotiation that gives

us back control over our own laws, control over our own borders,

control over our money and control over our future. The democratic

legitimacy of Europe is running out. We need to know where the United

Kingdom stands. Fundamental re-negotiation as far as Diane Dodds

is concerned. What is Sinn Fein's position? Ireland's place is in

Europe. You are MEP whether you like it or not. Ireland's place is in

Europe, North and South. Should a referendum take place, we would ask

voters to vote to stay in the EU. I'll appalled listening to Diane. If

you are trying to tell the people here in the north, because the most

important constituency, Diane, is our own. I do trying to tell them

that the British government will replace the funding that we get for

peace, the funding from CAP, the funding from the single farm

payments, we have just listened to minister talk about cuts. I was the

only MEP from the main political parties in the north and in the

south who voted against the cuts. You voted against cuts for peace,

for single farm payments, for rural development, for all of those

constituents. And now you're trying to tell people that if we pull out

of Europe, that the British government in some way is going to

replace all of that. That is bonkers. What we have to realise is

Martina Anderson wearing her economic illiterate hat of Sinn

Fein, sitting in the European Parliament with many of the Marxists

and former Communists of Eason Europe, -- Eastern Europe, is trying

to tell the people of Northern Ireland that they would allow the

European Union to spend, spend, spend their money and their taxes...

What they are the people who vote for us. I actually think that the

people in Northern Ireland want value for money. They see our

contribution in the United Kingdom of over 19 billion every year and

less than half of that back into the United Kingdom to spend in the

United Kingdom. That is absolutely nonsense economics for Sinn Fein to

put out there. I want you to answer in a word or two each of

put out there. I want you to answer work together in Europe, due share a

cappuccino often? We work together in Europe, due share a

cappuccino but if there are any issues we have to deal with we have

to do that but let's be rate clear, I am against cuts, I'm against

austerity, she is completely different to me. In the European

Parliament of 766 members from 28 different member states, it is

absolutely imperative that MEPs from Northern Ireland work on issues that

are for the good of Northern Ireland. Together? Let me make it

absolutely clear, Mark, I am standing up for Northern Ireland. I

am not standing up for this nonsense that Sinn Fein are talking

am not standing up for this nonsense will leave it there, thank you both

very much. Martina Anderson and Diane Dodds,

thank you. And joining me now with their thoughts on what we've been

discussing tonight are Professors Deirdre Heenan and Rick Wilford. A

quick word on the exchange of views there? I'm not surprised they have

not shed a cup of cappuccino in Brussels. I have to say, the thing

we have to recognise in Northern Ireland is we are in a condition of

double dependency. We are dependent on the EU and the UK. The farming

community takes up a much larger slice of the workforce and a

contribution to our economy than is the case over the water. But the

idea that there should be some flat equalising rate of subsidy for

farmers, actually, I am not an economist, I am always regarded as a

dismal scientist, but it does not make sense to me. It does not take

account of deficiencies. It can logically it may sound good but in

terms of practice I do not think so. Deirdre? There is a paradox here. We

are hearing how important farming is, 87% of subsidies are coming from

Europe. And yet we are hearing from the DUP that we want to be out of

Europe because it is costing us money. I think we have to be clear

that we are dependent. Northern Ireland is does well out of Europe

and our farmers are wholly reliant on it. The reality is the farming

business has been the success story of this austerity and downturn. We

need to protect those farmers and the small farmers. The food sector

contributes a lot to the economy as well. What chance and -- Northern

Ireland agreement in June? The idea that there can be a Northern Ireland

card played by asked just does not work. On the case of the DUP meeting

the Prime Minister last week with whatever they were drinking, if they

came back from that with a commitment from the Treasury to

reduce corporation tax which all parties are in favour of, I cannot

see Sinn Fein saying that is a terrible outcome of that meeting.

Will there be agreement? There has to be agreement. The dispersing

thing is the focus is on the spending side -- the dispiriting

thing. There is nothing about the getting side of the spending side.

We have two types of politics here. One is we are talking about the

nuclear option and scare tactics, the other one seems to be stick your

head in the sand and pretend it will not happen. We need to face up to

it, the parties come together and decide what is the best way to deal

with it. For single parents you'd want some schemes to assist them

back into work. You would want to address the whole issue of childcare

in Northern Ireland which is a huge issue. There is the demand side of

jobs and supply side and we would want to say, where are the jobs for

people coming off welfare and how will we assist people? The most we

can hope for is a softer landing than the rest of the UK. The

favourite word of the Treasury is No. But very briefly, if there is

not an agreement, something will be imposed? Of course it will happen.

We know the coalition are not interested in the special pleading

or Northern Ireland as a special case. They simply will impose

penalties. Those penalties will get harsher as we have to go along. We

need to leave it there. That is it from The View.

Join me for the Sunday Politics at 11:35am here on BBC One. Now we

leave you with the latest trend, the selfie. Look out for a familiar

face. Goodbye.