07/04/2016 The View

counting will have begun in the EU referendum.

Tonight, we hear from two big beasts of the political world -

one a prominent leading figure on the national stage,

as Alan Johnson tackles Sammy Wilson on Brexit.

They're at polar opposites in the debate on Europe,

but both agree the EU referendum in June will be a crucial vote.

Alan Johnson and Sammy Wilson spar over the details

on Northern Ireland's future in or out of Europe.

Here are the facts about whether its 13 million or 10 million, we made a

net contribution to the EU and that is... Not in Northern Ireland. The

UK as a whole makes that contribution.

The conviction of a woman for taking abortion pills

has thrown that divisive issue back into the headlines.

I'll be asking experts with differing viewpoints

how our political leaders should tackle the moral

Plus - why are some businesses here less efficient

than their competitors, and would the planned cut

Firms that are generating high levels of profit, paying high wages,

and those firms are driving up the overall productivity for the

economy. And looking to improve

their productivity over in Commentators' Corner

are Alex Kane and Paul McFadden. It's been a week of putting up

posters, launching manifestos and unveiling candidates

for the Assembly election in May. But just in case we'd forgotten

about the European Referendum, the Labour Party today sent in one

of its biggest hitters, Alan Johnson, to promote

the benefits of Northern Ireland And he took the opportunity

to accuse the Secretary of State of putting Northern Ireland's

political progress at risk by campaigning

for Britain to leave Europe. Theresa Villiers has called

the comments irresponsible. The DUP's Sammy Wilson,

who supports Brexit, joined Mr Johnson in the studio

earlier to debate the issue. I began by asking Alan Johnson

why he took a swipe at the Secretary of State's

position? I think that it's a very, very

dangerous argument to suggest that Northern Ireland wouldn't be

affected at all, everything would be fine, we could just leave the

European Union and carry on. To say that leaving the EU is going to have

an impact on the peace process, any casual observer of the situation in

Northern Ireland knows that people weren't blowing up this place

because they wanted us to remain members of the EU. We were blowing

it up because there were terrorists who wanted us out of the UK.

Ironically, they have now taken the side of the British government in

wanting to keep us in the EU. Even the economic arguments put forward,

there's substance to those either. It is only the substance of the

governor of the Bank of England. The things we would depend on the

kindness of strangers. Because our current account deficit is such that

if we left the European Union, he says the value of the pound would

fall. He says the governor of the Bank of England says that there

would be ramifications for our economy. I'm not saying that the...

Of course you are quite right about what was happening. I'm saying that

the European Union made a contribution to Northern Ireland

coming out of those days to the extent now of ?100 million, which to

ease a Villiers is saying we will give them the Treasury. Here are the

facts. Whether its 13 billion or 10 billion, we make a net contribution

to the EU. Not in Northern Ireland. The UK as a whole makes a

contribution. We are now no longer net beneficiary, it evens out. When

did that change? The second thing is that the future and what would

happen to the economy outside the European Union, the Institute of

economic affairs has said that GDP could grow by 13% and that has been

certified by the independent body, the Office for Budget

Responsibility. You quote the Bank of England, I quote the OBR and the

Institute of economic affairs. Northern Ireland is a net

beneficiary, you are absolutely clear about that? Jelly macro yes. I

don't know where he's got above you. The last figures I saw... If you

look at the research paper done by the House of Commons which indicates

that because of the four in peace money and money to the CHP over the

last couple of years, where we were as net beneficiaries has evened out

and over the next five years as piece money goes down and subsidies

for farming goes down, we will... The farmers are desperate to stay in

the European Union, I met them. Are you saying they have made no

contribution to the European Union? I am saying the European Union has

taken UK money and we spent it in Northern Ireland. That could just as

easily have been spent by the Northern Ireland government, or the

government in Westminster. We would have been able to do that

unencumbered by the priorities which Europe sets. And make it on the

basis of the priorities which we would have set. Where is the

guarantee that if that money wasn't spent as a net contribution by the

UK Government, it would come back to Northern Ireland? Any money spent by

the UK Government is subject to the Barnett Formula. We automatically

get our 3%. It is on public record that the amount of money we get from

peace has fallen from peace 12 piece for by about 50% over that period.

-- piece 1- piece four. We are less of a beneficiary from that. As far

as CAP is concerned, CAP has fallen by 35% in the last five years. As

the EU orientate 's Common agricultural policy more towards

Eastern Europe and towards environmental issues, the amount of

money we get in Northern Ireland will fall as well. You started this

conversation saying we are no longer a net beneficiary. You have said

it's falling. It has already fallen. Just to be clear, we are now no

longer in Northern Ireland a net and a fishery. Is that correct? It is

even now. -- a net beneficiary. I was talking to the manager of the

Titanic project this afternoon. He is desperately worried about visitor

numbers about they get. Exporters were desperately worried. The guy I

spoke to at a factory that makes packaging said before the single

market, he used to have to have rings of papers for his drivers to

take stuff to Austria or Poland. Now they just need one piece of paper.

The fact we are exporting, but you export so much to the European

Union, far higher than the 50% average across the UK, must mean,

Sammy, that you are running a huge risk. You're not telling me and

you're not telling the viewers tonight but people visit Northern

Ireland because we are part of the EU. Tourists come to Northern

Ireland because we have a tourist offer. They come from America,

China, all over the world, and EU countries not because we are members

of the EU but because we have upped our game as far as the tourism

industry is concerned and we have attractions we want to see.

Membership of the EU is not going to make any difference as to whether or

not the tourist industry is affected. But the issue of free

movement is not just about the free movement of people to work, it is

free movement per se. In the days before the EU in a single market you

need visas to go on holiday to Spain. There is at least the

prospect of that returning. What I can't work out is what kind of

vision due you want for Britain, for the United Kingdom? In isolation.

One of the reasons we have turned our back on some of the most

expanding markets in the world, Australia and, New Zealand, India,

is because when we joined the EU we had to break trade relations with

those countries because we had to give preference. We had to exclude

free trade with many Commonwealth countries. We could reopen that if

we were free. Commonwealth countries say stay in the European Union.

Prime Minister Monty came across India and said please stay. -- Prime

Minister Mondi. Germany exports to India and has no colonial links with

them. David Cameron said that one of the dangers of leaving the EU was

but it would be a leap into the dark. On this programme back in

February, Alistair Hamilton, the Chief Executive of investors and I

raised a number of issues. -- of Invest NI. He said 60% of foreign --

exports to foreign markets. Foreign direct investment, we pitch and off

access. What happens if we leave the European market. The funding we get

from Europe goes to things like Bombardier. Will we get the same

distribution in future? Those are all serious issues. You don't really

have solid answers to those questions. I do, and that's take

each one in turn. On trade, since the European Union sells to the

United Kingdom ?290 billion worth of goods and services every year and

has a trade surplus with us of ?85 billion per year, whose interest is

it in to keep that trade arrangement going? It is more in the interest in

the countries in the EU. Those are facts, Alan. There are millions of

jobs in European Union countries that depend upon exporting freely to

the United Kingdom. If they want to export freely to the United Kingdom

than they have to give us access to the market as well. As far as

investment is concerned. A Prime Minister tried this one in the House

of Commons the other week. Shortly after he had said it, the Chancellor

got up and said that between the announcement of the referendum and

the announcement of the budget, as a result of increased investment in

the United Kingdom, 150,000 additional jobs which have not been

expected have been created in the United Kingdom. There are again

we've seen that didn't scare away international investment. Isn't it

the point that those of you who want United Kingdom to remain in the EU

are at least possibly responsible for overplaying the nightmare

scenario if we left? If you took Graham Gudgeon, whose view is that

the impact to be pretty small within the margin of error. Here's very

respected economist. So is the governor of the Bank of England. The

economic clouds are gathering. Even without the referendum, we are not

out of our problems economically. To turn our back on the biggest

commercial market in the world where we can export without any tariffs

whatsoever, we used to pay 37% on ceramics, 14% on cars, that's why

the inward direct investment is coming here. For us to turn our

backs, for what reason? You have said more passion is needed in the

remaining campaign. Labour supporters need to put boots on the

ground. Quite a bit of passion tonight. That is not necessarily a

bad thing. I have two putted to you that Labour members in Northern

Ireland might not be inclined make that case because your national

executive Wightman candidates here. We are now seeing Labour members

handing on a ticket which is not a Liberal party ticket because they

are not allowed to. I had just met Labour Party members,

they understand the huge decision is the 23rd of June, it is a bigger

decision than the General Election, the biggest political decision of my

and labour in Northern Ireland is going to be a central part of our

campaign. Does it matter to your members in this part of the world? I

led the charge in CW for the Labour Party members to be recognised here

but the issue about whether we stand candidates is something for after

June the 23rd, we have all of our focus on winning the referendum. It

is dreaming unlikely you will persuade Sammy about that. He hasn't

even persuaded a lot of his own members, a lot of his own MPs, one

of the reasons they are reticent about going out and campaigning is

because they know it has been detrimental for the industry, which

has been devastated in his own constituency. What devastated that?

EU membership. Sammy, Sammy... You know in your heart of hearts that

the EU has been bad for jobs and bad for industry. It finished in 73,

wherefore we joined the EU, because Iceland put a limit around its

coast. We have 232 Labour MPs, of whom seven are in the Leave camp. It

was a unanimous decision at our conference. We are absolutely united

on this. We will leave it there, thank you very much indeed.

Coming up on The View - as the debate on abortion finds

its way back into the spotlight, I'll be talking to two experts

who take very different views on the subject.

But first, while the number of people in work here is almost

back to the level during the boom years, the long-standing problem

of their productivity hangs over the economy.

It's a measure of output per worker and while it

remains in the doldrums, the wider economy

can the Stormont Executive do about it?

Here's our Business and Economics Editor, John Campbell.

We have shared in what has become known as the UK's jobs miracle.

Despite a deep recession and a weak recovery, our economy has continued

to add jobs, lots of them. The trouble is that when we are at work,

we are terribly unproductive. The UK produces less per hour than our main

economic rivals and productivity has stagnated since the financial

crisis. Northern Ireland's performance is even worse and on

some measures, the gap with the UK is becoming wider. Here is where we

stand. Let's say a typical German worker makes 126 widgets in a day. A

typical UK worker can only make 115 of the same product in the same

amount of time. But in Northern Ireland, that typical worker would

only be able to make 100 widgets. This really matters,

because a country's ability to raise its standards of living

over time depends almost entirely on its

ability to raise output per worker. if you show you were producing

more this year Unless they raise their

productivity, they will struggle to compete

in global markets. So just why is our performance so

pool for so long? Some of it is to do with the size of the economy, the

size of businesses. Some of it is to do with how much capital or

machinery we use. But a lot of it also seems to be to do with the

skills of the labour force. So is it just a case that we don't produce

enough high skilled employees? We can see this in two ways. Northern

Ireland has a much higher proportion, about double the UK

rate, of people on the workforce who have no qualifications at all. Also

then, at the higher end of the labour force in terms of

qualifications, whilst we have got many quality Magda Linette excellent

qualifications, it is also true that we have gaps. -- many excellent

qualifications. This pharmaceutical company is a model of a highly

productive company. It employs lots of skilled staff making high-value

products and it is constantly investing in new equipment and in

research and development. We invest all of our own profits back into the

business and that is principally in the areas of capital but also in

development of solutions and our products and what we do and we need

to make rapid elite meet the demands of the client all the time, we are

trying to keep abreast of that -- we need to meet the demands. Typically,

we would invest in our capabilities and we also add to our capacity when

we need to. We will add to particular geographic regions if

that seems to be a trend where some of the market is moving to. That all

amounts to many millions of pounds a year. The problem is, we don't have

enough firms like Almac, who have the capacity to make these levels of

productivity boosting investment. And that is not the only issue.

Colin Walsh has a record of backing high productivity technology firms.

He says allowing time for innovation is important and so is leadership.

It will take you a number of years to get to there. You just can't

achieve those kind of returns if the product is still raw and taking too

much work to customise and two perfect for each customer. The

second thing that would be a big factor and it is probably related is

management. If the management are experienced and are confident and

know what they are doing in that particular segment, then that will

make a big difference. Could the executive's flagship economic

policy, the reduction in corporation Tax, make a difference? A forecast

by economists at all is the university suggested could, boosting

productivity by 4% over time. So how come the tax-cut have that effect?

The primary mechanism is the new firms it will attract a Northern

Ireland, firms that are generating high levels of profit, paying higher

wages and in turn driving up the overall productivity for the

economy. In 2007, the executive set of productivity target. Aiming to

narrow the gap with the UK average by 2015. But as it became clear

there was no chance of hitting the target, it was dropped, so should

the next executive bring it back? They need to, in the next programme

for government, have a target to raise productivity. There was no

target in the previous programme for government, it got dropped relative

to the one before that. Then ready to be realistic. This has been a

problem that has existed for at least half a century, arguably a

century, so it has been there a long time. It will not disappear over the

course of one Assembly's mandate but at least let's begin. Measurement of

productivity at a regional level is extraordinarily difficult and if you

think of a regional Assembly, what the electorate care about, what we

really should focus on is making sure we have jobs and good wages. If

you have most people employed and they are well paid, you can be

confident the productivity measurement is pretty strong as

well, but targeting that can lead you down very. Roads in terms of

your policy choices. Week productivity is affecting much of

the developed world, so whatever the next executive decides to do, there

are no easy answers. Northern Ireland's abortion laws

were brought starkly into the spotlight earlier this week

when a woman who bought drugs on the internet to induce

a miscarriage was prosecuted and The 1967 Abortion Act doesn't apply

here and abortion is only permitted Precious Life called the sentence

"very lenient", while Amnesty International said a woman who needs

a termination should not be treated Mary Lewis is a legal

adviser for Life NI, which supports women facing

unexpected pregnancies, and Fiona Bloomer,

from Ulster University, is a specialist researcher

in abortion policy. You are both very welcome to the

programme. Mary Lewis, do you think the prosecution in this case was in

the public interest? Most certainly I do and I think the DPP took the

correct decision in this particular instance. The evidence was quite

overwhelming in relation to the case and secondly, then, of course, the

judge found that of course there was a criminal conviction to be made and

he then had to sentence and, as you know, he sentenced to three months

imprisonment, suspended for two years. And you think it is right

that the woman was criminalised? The way I look at it is the law is there

as a protective measure and the 1861 Act not only protects the unborn

child but is there to protect the woman as well and in those

circumstances, there is a societal reason why we have the law. We have

the law for all kinds of reasons. We have the law to keep society in a

way which is protective for everyone and to allow for the freedoms of

everyone insofar as they affect other people as well. But how was

the woman in this case protected by getting a criminal conviction? The

way I look at it is she was protected because the law is to

protect her from procuring a miscarriage... She had already done

that. The law is there as a deterrent and if you look at it from

this point of view, in Great Britain today, there are four live births

for every abortion. In Northern Ireland, if you look at all of the

figures for abortions in Northern Ireland, there are 28th live births

for everyone abortion, that includes illegal of oceans in Northern

Ireland and -- illegal abortions in Northern Ireland and the ones that

take place... What you read into that? That Northern Ireland values

live and the people in question recognised the baby for what it was,

they were able to recognise it as human, a baby boy. You can also read

into figures simply that abortion is available across the water on demand

but not here. Technically, abortion is not available on demand. 1967 act

pertains in GB but not here. The 1861 legislation applies in England

and Wales. The abortion act is the exception to that. Fiona Bloomer, do

you believe that the prosecution could be justified in any

circumstances in this particular case? Not in this particular case, I

think what it flags up is the issue of class. If you are a middle-class

woman living in Northern Ireland and you want an abortion, you can

readily access it. You can find the funds to travel, you can find the

funds to pay for the services of an abortion clinic. This woman wanted

to travel and was not able to access the funds to do so and had she been

able to travel, we wouldn't know anything about this case. But the

reality is we all live under the same law, whether we are working

class or middle-class, whether we have disposable income or whether we

don't. You may argue that is right or wrong and that may be a factor in

what happened here but it is the case that the law treats everybody

the same. What do you make of Mary Lewis's basic point that this woman

broke the law and it is right for her to be prosecuted, to act as a

deterrent for others going down the same road? I don't agree with that

point at all. The law in Northern Ireland is completely unfit for

purpose, that has been very clear from recent judicial reviews. It is

unfit for purpose. It is not complied with human rights

legislation. The current status of abortion in Northern Ireland, we

know there is an average of about 37 legal abortions that have happened

in the last five years, on average over 1,000 women a year travel to

England. I have to correct you there. The numbers are clear in the

judgment, there were 800 abortions in the year in question of Northern

Irish women who have abortions in England and Wales. We are talking

about an average over a 10-year period. My research has looked

trends over the last ten years. Let Fiona make the point. My research

has looked at over a 10-year period and if you look at the trends, it is

an average of 1007 women. Yes, numbers have been declining but over

a 10-year period, that is the average. Other women are also

thought to travel, for instance, to the Netherlands. We know from

research in the south of Ireland that around 6% of those who travel

for abortions actually travel to the Netherlands. We don't have compare

above data for Northern Ireland. We also know numerous women are

accessing the abortion... Realistically, most women who are

having abortions outside norther Ireland are having done in England

and Wales. You raise the issue of poverty but I go back to a more

fundamental issue and that is humanity. You have to decide if you

want abortion on demand or not. It seems to me that in the last number

of months, we have a number of issues. The question of so-called,

no Mike Phillips nonmedical term fatal fatal abnormality -- be

nonmedical term. Then they say rape and incest should be an exception in

the circumstances. Some people think that, a lot of people don't. The

bottom line is if you are saying abortion in any circumstances is

abortion on demand, you wouldn't need any law. So you have to ask

yourself the question could you want to abolish law in all respects?

There has to be some form of law for all things to regulate society. This

is an interesting point would you believe there are substantial

numbers of women who are accessing these drugs online or perhaps having

them posted across from various groups in England and are accessing

abortion, procuring miscarriages, abortion, whatever you want to call

it, in Northern Ireland, that we simply don't know about?

Dart organisations and they have said they have sent packages to

Northern Ireland. They are not prepared to give any details. You

don't know those figures? Some of the research is actually going to be

published at a conference in June, and international conference

happening in Belfast. Both providers are coming to the conference, both

will be providing information on the starters of abortion health. We have

some idea from an interview the other day, this case may be one way

of stopping it in a sense because this case is possibly a deterrent.

We don't know that. It has certainly highlighted the issue. You only have

to listen to the lady who was interviewed in relation to being a

housemate of this poor woman who had the misfortune to have taken the

hills. She was horrified and the reason was mainly because she was

face to face with the baby in the bin. And it was a baby boy. A lot of

the time, the pro-choice people try to obliterate the reality of the

situation, and say it is something we don't recognise as a baby. It is

a baby. We need to face the reality. Even if you make abortion illegal,

it's still occurs. If you look at worldwide trends, in countries where

abortion is completely illegal, abortion is still happen. Even if

you have restrictive laws, it does not stop it happening. If a woman is

determined to have an abortion, she will jump through numerous hoops.

What I'm curious to ask is where do you think the drive or evidence is

that there is a view within the political mainstream but change is

required, because clearly there are campaigners who believe change is

required. There is evidence that the politicians, who ultimately make the

decisions, believe that. If you look at the political discourse since the

Northern Ireland assembly started, I just completed a study with a

colleague which looks specifically at the political discourse since the

Assembly started. We are looking at what the issues in those debates? It

has moved from judging women about being selfish and myths about impact

of abortion. What are the myths. Excuse me. Three to the more recent

debates which have shown an acknowledgement of the complexity of

reasons that leading woman to have an abortion. Is it not possible that

some politicians who were perhaps as on terminations in certain cases

have now been scared off into a debate that has shifted into a

debate about abortion on demand? If you look at the change in the

discourse from three years ago, for instance, to the current day, that

is definitely a lot more MLAs. In the recent debate we were talking

about the difficult decisions facing a woman if she has been diagnosed

with fatal beetle abnormality. It's not a medical centre, but it's an

umbrella term. It is widely recognised as an acceptable term to

describe these conditions. The political discourse is moving on. I

think they are recognising there's a nuance to the debate. Do you believe

that the debate is moving on, are you concerned the ground is moving

from under your feet? No. A few people were saying that this turn of

fatal foetal abnormality has now become a bigger discussion. There

has been High Court cases and the Russians. Do you think you are --

discussions. There are a large number of people who support

abortion but I strongly believe that whenever people faced with the

education of what a baby is, at 12 weeks or 24 weeks they can be

persuaded. A final word, Fiona? The guidelines which recently

acknowledge the existence of the abortions Hill and women's' use of

that is evidence that the Department of Health are agonising women are

accessing abortions in legal and illegal circumstances. I don't

suppose you would ever agree on anything, but interesting to hear

your side of the complex argument. And back in Commentators' Corner

tonight are Alex Kane Hope you enjoyed your Easter eggs

over the last couple of weeks. We've got a couple of serious issues to

talk about tonight. We will talk about Europe and Brexit in a couple

of minutes. Let's pick up on the abortion debate. You think it has

moved on beyond the narrow confines of discussing in terms of fatal

foetal abnormality to a wider discussion? I think it has moved on

massively. In terms of citizenship, with the socio- issues, it strikes

me as fundamentally absurd and wrong. It is legal in England,

Scotland and Wales but not in Northern Ireland. I also think, as a

father, I have a 17-year-old and I love her. I trust her enough to be

able to make our own decisions. If she's ever pregnant, to make the

decision that is right for her in those circumstances. Because I love

and trust her, I am willing to love and trust that every other woman who

finds herself in that situation should be able to make a decision

for herself. It worries me that somehow we've built a place apart

Northern Ireland where we don't trust Northern Ireland to be capable

of making a decision for themselves. Paul, do you get any indication that

there is a serious appetite amongst our politicians for a change to the

law in abortion? I don't get that sense from the politicians,

definitely not. That's what it will take for change to happen. It will

in legal terms. I take Alex's point. It's an emotive subject and the

complex subject. It is a polarising subject. I am a father as well. I am

uncomfortable of the fact there are three men around the table. I think

it is important. I am the father of a daughter and I have different

views on the subject of abortion. God forbid she ever found herself in

the place where she was contemplating an abortion, I may not

agree with her doing it, but I would still love her. It is a very, very

difficult one. I do feel there is a can is known that maybe it is moving

in the direction of having this abortion, I don't think that is the

view of society at large. I think not just on this issue but a lot of

issues, politicians are way behind the general public. I think there's

something happening. It is impossible to know. It is anecdotal,

its panels. A loss of the Berlin Northern Ireland are choosing not to

vote. There is something not right. -- a lot of people in Northern

Ireland. The fact that they debate to kill off the big social and moral

debate makes me think that they do know. Parties are behind the rate on

so many issues, but maybe not on abortion. Let's move onto the

subject of the referendum which we do know are having in June. We

disagree on this. I wonder after that heated and good-humoured debate

between Alan Johnson and Sammy Wilson, if anybody undecided might

have been able to inch his or her way towards deciding how to vote, do

people just have a knee jerk view without actually listening to what

it is politicians have said? I think there are people quite clearly in

the yes or No Campaign. I am in the let's get out camp. What you have in

the middle, maybe 35% who are undecided, they won't be moved. They

don't understand the economics or trade agreements. Will they

understand it any better after tonight? No. But what matters is the

perception. Neither side knows. For the end of the day, I think we will

vote to stay in bed and two because people will go for the status quo

and they went think it through. But micro-vote to stay in.

The difficulty is you have conflict opinions coming from what we would

have regarded as respected economists. The facts are we would

be a lot worse off if there is a Brexit vote. I think the pound

windfall. I am not at all sure any money will be coming in Northern

Ireland's direction. You are making this up as you go along. Possible

job losses, I would fear. What astounds me is that after 43 years

of membership we are told this is a wonderful thing. All they can come

up with, if we leave, it is like if you get caught in Mr MacGregor's

garden you will get put in a rabbit high. There has to be something more

convincing. -- rabbit pie. I find it quite frightening in a sense. We

will come back to this at times. We will leave it there, thank you.

That's it from The View for this week.

Join me for Sunday Politics at 11:35am here on BBC One,

when I'll be talking to the Alliance Party's Naomi Long.

And with the election campaign now in full swing,

we're seeing lots of familiar faces and lots of new ones.

But none of them are quite like the comedian

My name is Keith Cruise. This year, I am running for election in west

Belfast. I am running in North Down, Hollywood. It will be my power base.

It is a great time to be from Hollywood. You have Rory McIlroy,

number one golfer in the world. Jamie Gordon, top factory the world.

On days like this, it will be compulsory for a big slip and slide

the entire length of the road. There are far better reasons to

discriminate against someone other than sexuality. You can discriminate

against their parents, their social standing,