23/06/2016 The View

You can also keep updated with News Online.

But now let's join Mark Carruthers for a special edition of The View.

Well, counting is underway for one of the most important political

decisions to be taken in a generation.

Tonight on The View, we look back at the sometimes

bruising EU referendum campaign - and ahead to what the political

landscape could look like when we wake up tomorrow morning...

It's one of those special nights in politics -

potentially seismic for the future United Kingdom.

We're only hours away from knowing whether the future of the country

will be inside or outside the European Union.

Counting is underway across eight centres in Northern Ireland

and turnout is reported to be up on last month.

In the studio I'll be looking back on a lengthy and lively campaign

Have we seen the positive politicisation of the UK population

or has it been a coarse, divisive debate whose

And calling it as they see it in Commentators' Corner,

the unique political union that is Chris Donnelly

So - the votes have been cast, the campaigners can draw breath

for the first time in weeks and the post mortem begins.

Tonight we're attempting to capture the mood -

and to imagine how things might unfold in the days

But first a reminder of a campaign which saw some of the biggest names

in British politics coming here to talk to voters -

in the only part of the UK that has a land border

Eye will go to Parliament, and propose that the British people

decide the future, in Europe. As members of the European Union,

you cannot have any sovereignty. I think we need to lift our eyes, see

growth markets, buy across the planet, and the sad news, it is not

in Europe. We have privileged access, to market of 500 million

people, the single market. We think it isn't the best to Remain.

Interest, on balance, he is going to be voting to leave. I believe it

would be a historic mistake to do anything, that could risk

destabilising the multilayered constitutional settlement, for the

stability of Northern Ireland. And we have said, to the Leave campaign,

you have fundamental questions about Northern Ireland. To pray ministers,

who know the importance of the peace process, to suggest that porting and

abundance of direction would undermine that, it is scandalous.

The commitment of people to the Northern Ireland settlement, and

democratic means to determine the future, I think that commitment is

rock solid. As Britain quits the European Union, that becomes the

physical border with the whole EU. Extra taxs, custom checks,

restrictions on people moving to Ireland. The choice is in your

hands. My guests tonight have been

at the coal-face of the campaign over recent months -

either making the case for your vote, or examining

the arguments raised by both camps. The DUP MP Sammy Wilson and the SDLP

MLA Claire Hanna have been very Patrick Mulholland is from NIPSA,

which went against the trade union grain in advocating a Leave vote

and David Phinnemore is a Professor of European Politics

at Queen's University. I think we always knew that it was

going to be a uphill struggle, you had the machinery of government,

proposing that we should Remain at the European Union, the government

was using taxpayer money to good propaganda out, against the rules,

and you had the scare campaign, not just from reading members of the

government, the business communities, and foreign statesmen,

telling us outlandish stories. That is the background. It says as though

you are beginning to admit defeat? I think on the positive side, for the

Leave campaign, it had far more passion, vision for the future,

people more likely to vote, and I think the result is going to depend

upon Google voters out best. I think we were more motivated than Remain.

If that is the case, you will have won? We do not know yet. I think it

is the Beatles. Did Leave have more passion? I do not think so. We will

find out, but the polls, suggesting that Remain has one. Those sound

like excuses, getting in early. I do not recognise the campaign that he

has characterised. It has been a casualty, over the last few months,

but that is an accusation, people would seem levelled at the Leave

campaign. We did not predict WW3. The end of the peace process. All of

the nonsense, from Remain... Even minutes, after these things were

debunked by fact checkers, about the NHS, pinning complex problems on

journey Foreigner and the EU. Absolute nonsense. Do you think

facts were a casualty? Absolutely. Both of the campaigns? I think it

was more all Leave. The understanding of how the European

Union operates was not explained thoroughly by Remain, I do not think

we have the level of understanding of political systems, that we should

do. David Cameron, the Prime Minister, and George Oz, the

Chancellor, would have to understand the European Union, because they are

at the heart of government? I think they do understand, but problems,

have been blamed at Brussels, as though it has been some were alien,

coming through clearly at the campaign. Forgetting that the United

Kingdom has been a key part of the decision-making process. It is the

MEPs and council, not the commission. Reluctance, that the

Prime Minister could not afford to spill out, the interference from

Brussels. What do you mean by Brussels? That is the European

Union, the United Kingdom government sets on the council. It is part of

all the decision-making process, it is not taken by Brussels, taken at

Brussels, but by representatives of national government. Like the

assembly, and Belfast. People can explain that. NIPSA adopted the

position, at odds with trade unions? You think that was the correct thing

to do? The ordinary person in the street has been unimpressed by both

the official Remain campaign, and the Leave campaign, exaggerating

statistics, fluff key issues, and unimpressive. What we have been

trying to do, as the union, trying to introduce the different

discussion into this scenario. We want a discussion about the Remain

the action of austerity, or the Leave version, we want something

different. We want an economic solution, that is possible. The

socialist economy, possible. We want to open up that discussion. This

campaign has been usual. -- useful. We want to look forward, not back?

At Northern Ireland, we of course want to look for work. We want to

see something different, than what the assembly has been presenting,

the trade union movement, as a whole, wants to move. But the trade

union movement does not speak with one voice? NIPSA out of step? The

trade union movement has about vengeance of opinions, I think about

ten trade unions on the other side of the argument. We have a

discussion, with in the movement, about the future but you have the

difference between the discussion that has taken place with the trade

unions, and the politicians, frankly, the discussions that

politicians have been having, has been a very versions of austerity.

How much of our problem, did that pose? Socialist party, effectively?

Having a relationship with the union movement, but speaking with forked

tongue? The vast majority of the trade union movement was supporting

Remain, despite boiling it down to one issue. People do have concerns.

But the European Union has process more transparent, than if it was

just being delivered by the United Kingdom. You talk about economic

solutions, you want to throw it all up, it took a rigid ideology, that

ultimately would have damaged the United Kingdom economy, and left

considerably less. It is about the destruction, of public services. You

start from the position, that trade with the United States is

fundamentally wrong. The privatisation of public services. T

tip, you address that? We said that you have to have the trade

partnership, preferably negotiated across the European Union. The

centre left at Europe. It has concessions about having that

discussion. You going to answer the question.

Quick word because I do not want to get bogged down in the tip. Europe

has made the TTIP process better. You don't even know what is in it...

The secrecy... It is better negotiated than with Boris Johnson

and Michael Gove. To what extent is this an issue if there is a Remain

vote and if that's weeks ahead even by a small percentage? This issue

will have to be resolved and there is a huge divergence of opinion on

the ground on the best way forward? Yes, the huge diverging. I think we

will see possibly a moderation of the support for TTIP. Just to

explain, this is the transatlantic trade partnership. Yes, on which

there has been a huge amount of criticism, levelled at some of the

clauses in it, about what they might mean for public services and what it

might mean in terms of the sovereignty of states to take

decisions about how they run their public services. I think the level

of opposition which we have seen across Europe has seen the European

union row back from its initial position. There is even a question

around now over whether TTIP will go ahead. What is your gut feeling this

evening? Were beginning to see some returns from Bala boxes in Northern

Ireland, suggesting high turnout, -- ballot boxes. Suggesting not so high

in Nationalist areas as union areas, so I don't know what you read into

that? These suggestions come with a health warning but they do suggest

Remain make shade it. What do you think? I think Remain may shade it.

52, 53, I think that is probably the level we are looking at, based upon

what the polls have been seeing. And does that put the issue to bed for a

generation or does it simply renew the argument? I do not think it puts

it to bed at all because I think it is very clear that what we have seen

is the rise of Ukip within the UK, clear Eurosceptic views expressed,

and there is a lot of public opinion out there which is clearly against

the European Union or certainly questioning the nature of UK member

ship of it and I think even the political support which exists for

the Leave campaign, that will not go away. I spoke to a well-known

Brexiteer earlier this week, a well-known figure in your party, the

DUP, as it happens. He says he does not expect to be on the winning side

tomorrow morning. He was predicting 57% to 43% in favour of Remain. Now,

do you still maintain this line of five or six minutes ago that you

will just shade it? I am still optimistic on the basis of what I

have seen, and, yes, I also need to be realistic and that is why in my

opening remarks, which you describe as excuses, I was being realistic

and I know what we're up against. But I have the benefit of

campaigning not just in Northern Ireland but I have campaigned in

quite a few areas in England as well, spoken at rallies and meetings

in England. And I know the strength of feeling there is there as well.

Do you have a strong feeling about this? You were always a committed

Brexiteer? Yes, I was. One of the first campaigns I was ever involved

in when I first got involved in politics was the referendum of 1975

when we were making the decision of whether we should go into the

European Community, at that stage. Your credentials are good. David,

you have written articles suggesting the DUP has been less than clear,

even as recently as 12 months ago? Yes, I would see even more recently.

What has been striking is when you went into these elections, you have

the DUP clearly for Leave, barely mentioning this Leave issue in the

literature. There is no other situation where we have a draft

programme for government which does not mention the referendum and the

possibility there could be a Brexit, and my concern would be, if it is

Leave, and the UK Government has to move quickly to renegotiate, or

negotiate the terms of leaving, what will Northern Ireland's position be?

What is our actual position? What would we want from a negotiation

about leaving? Firstly, for the Assembly elections, as far as that

is concerned, it was a conscious decision to divorce laws from the EU

referendum, because the issues... That may have been a bad mistake. I

do not think it was, because funnily enough around the doors, and I

campaigned extensively there myself, the issue raised most often was the

issue of the EU referendum, because it was so much in the news. As far

as what happens if the UK does decide to leave, and then of course

there will be on input from Northern Ireland, and there are many issues,

many of which we want dealt with, they will be coming to the rest...

David, want to come back? We knew the referendum was coming. Scotland,

they had an inquiry, will they had -- Wales had an inquiry. The

Assembly he did nothing. We had to rely on a select report to give some

indication of what would be the implications of a Brexit. If it is

narrow one way or the other, Patrick Holland, what happens next? I must

say my feeling is it is likely to be Remain, that is most likely now --

Patrick Mulholland. To your disfavour? I would like tomorrow for

David Cameron to not be the Prime Minister any more. So the 52, 50 3%

mentioned would suit you well? If I can finish my sentence, I would like

to see Cameron gone tomorrow and the Tory party deeply weakened by the

outcome of this referendum -- 53%. If it is a Leave vote, we are in an

entirely new and different situation altogether. I think one of the

things that will develop will be a discussion about what the future

looks like and, let's be clear about this, I do not think I share much

ground with Sammy as to what it should look like... If it is 52 or

53% and there is a mortal wound inflicted on David Cameron that

you're hoping for, what then? What is the scenario that should unfold,

from your point of view's the best case scenario? I think you're then

left with a situation of a deeply wounded Government, deeply wounded

Tory party, and you have people feeling they can exercise some real

change in society when they get it... How will they do that? We are

in fixed term election so it will be another four years theoretical and

for the next election. I think an election will be unavoidable if you

have seen the state of the Tory party... But you need to back it.

You're shaking your head, Claire. You're talking about party politics,

how we can strike the ball, and I think your campaign position ignore

the impact it would have on our economy and the public services and

servants you are supposed to represent, so that is truly worrying

-- strike the ball. And also that it will embolden the hard right. Hang

on, Sammy Wilson You're speaking about the issue of the Assembly

election, and I think you're right, but that ground campaign, we did

incorporate that into our Assembly campaign because it is fundamental

to Northern Ireland's future, but I think the ground campaign did lack

that these are fundamental issues and people had specific questions

and argument who wanted to tease out that you could not do in the media

or a leaflet and I think many of the parties, for them, the growing

campaign did not turn up. And people were knackered because leaflets do

not pay for themselves and I think that was a problem. That view from

very a couple of weeks ago, the suggestion that a Leave might be

quite useful for a negotiating hand for the Government in future with

European Union. We may be out, but we could negotiate from a position

of strength get back in again. Jean-Claude Juncker, the head of

your tuning in, he warned David Cameron that out is out. Do you

accept that? -- the head of the European Commission. I would hope

that out is out. That is what people in the United Kingdom will be voting

on, to stay in the EU, or to leave. Given all that we have said about

the dangers of staying in the EU and the detrimental effect it has on our

economy, on our democracy, on our standard of living, on the tensions

it has caused in society, open immigration, why would we want to go

back into such an arrangement? And the EU, of course, has proven itself

to be totally unreformable anyway so I do not think there is any point

hoping it will change. The only change we can see in the EU, and

this is what worries me after the referendum, if we do stay in,...

David Fenimore, it would be out? I think it would be but it is not up

to Jean-Claude Blanc to decide that -- David Phinnemore. They would be

negotiation. I could see the UK Government possibly moving towards

Leave over the two-year period have to negotiate in an possibly have

second thoughts. We cannot rule that out. -- Jean-Claude Juncker. But

what unfold at that point. Do you think there could be a mortal wound

inflicted on David Cameron, the Tories could go into meltdown, there

could be a General Election sooner rather than later and Jeremy Corbyn

to be in number ten? Or is that fanciful on the part of Patrick

Mulholland? I do not see that immediately. I think there are

interesting dynamics in the Tory party itself. I think a lot will

depend on the scale of the victory, assuring that it is one, for a

Remain. Are we all sitting up all night? We are. Well, good.

Thanks to you all, and through the night,

all the results from the 18 constituencies here will be toted

up, and the overall Northern Ireland result will be announced

at the Titanic Exhibition Centre - from where our political editor,

Mark, the four Belfast constituencies are also

Have the tally people been able to tell you anything

Granted it is in the early stage. Well, not really. I think it is a

little too early in terms of the breakdown. They are both exuding

confidence but whilst it is very busy here, a lot of ballot boxes

coming in, a lot of them being opened up, the verification process

underway and the counting teams actually getting into the counting,

you cannot really extrapolate too much. For instance, there were quite

a few Leave votes in the East Belfast area earlier on and maybe

campaigners will take heart from that but a lot of that was to do

with the geography, just that the inner-city loyalist areas that

perhaps have gone Leave, may be closer to the centre than some of

the more leafy areas further out. So in terms of how it breaks down it is

too early to see. I think we can predict the turnout will be up on

the 55% we saw in last month's Assembly poll. Certainly there are

some areas that have hit 70%, for certain ballot boxes anyway, so we

would not be surprised if it were as much as perhaps ten percentage

points up on that Assembly poll we had in May. Sammy Wilson says he is

optimistic Remain can win although it will be tight. Our other guest

tonight, Patrick Mulholland, who is for Leave, still thinks it will be

Remain, and Claire Hanna and David Phinnemore agree with that. Do you

have a gut feeling, looking at social media and speaking to people

on the ground, on how things make on hold over the next six to eight

hours? This is a time when gut feelings can often let you down. I

think this will have a few ups and downs as we see the different areas

coming in. Obviously Northern Ireland, with a quarter of a million

voters, every vote counts here, as everywhere else, but there are 46

million voters in total, so I think there will be different peaks and

troughs as we perhaps get the East coast of England and some of the

Northern areas that are thought to be strong Leave areas coming in and

the likes of Bristol, the South, the south-west, stronger Remain areas

coming in. I think what we will be analysing in terms of local results

here, it will be about whether there is a Unionist or Nationalists

divide. Well Unionists be voting Leave and Nationalistss Remain, or

given that we have the Ulster Unionist s recommending Remain, will

that have an effect? That is the kind of thing we will be analysing

but I think it will be a mob's game to call right now and I am not such

a mild as to call it. You can forgive me for trying, of course --

a mug's game and I am not such a mug is to call it. The numbers concern

for Northern Ireland are very interesting and fascinating from our

point of view but that rod that will feed into the UK wide picture and

our figures will go into Nick overall figures to decide whether

leave or remain -- raw data. Yes, there will be a Northern Ireland

result that will probably be released around 4:30pm in the

morning but that will not be the end of the matter. It is all down to

what happens on a UK wide basis and we are thinking that result will

come sometime around 7am, so it really is a case of how take things

are across-the-board where England will make up the bulk of the voters,

on whether Northern Ireland, Scotland or Wales will make a

difference. It could be fascinating. If you get so tight that England is

leaning towards Leave and, say, Scotland pushes it into the Remain

camp. You would think Northern Ireland would probably be slightly

more Remain than Leave but, again, difficult to call percentages at

this early stage. Yes, what happens in Scotland will certainly be

fascinating. The whole thing is fascinating. Thank you very much,

Mark, for that. Lots more from you throughout

the night, of course, but let's go over for a final word

with our commentators tonight, Good evening to you both. Thank you

for being with us. It is one of those nights, isn't it, whether

political anoraks will be setting up with their hot drinks they choose to

keep them going through the wee small hours? And it is very early,

as Mark said, in terms of counting the votes right now and he will not

be such a mug as to call it. Some people have called it already.

It's very early in terms of counting the votes at the moment,

but what's your reading of the situation at this stage?

I think the Remain side will just about do it. It is encouraging that

the turnout is up, by all accounts, for Northern Ireland, and who wins

depends on who got the vote out, although we know from previous polls

that it is usually wait angry men that turned out, but hopefully not

all wait angry men have turned out and voted for Leave, and that a

whole lot of women have turned out and voted for Remain -- white angry.

It is interesting our account will not be in until 430 in the morning

when other parts of the country with greater populations will be in

before that -- our code will not be in until 4:30am. By all accounts, it

looks pretty tight, Chris? Yes, I think so. Nigel Farage think, he

says, it will lean towards Remain. Be under no illusion that if it goes

the other way it is in keep it defending moment for the British

public. For how they see themselves in terms of the rest of the world

and the constitutional survival of the British date. Interestingly, if

we were locally, have not been entirely convinced Arlene Foster and

all of the DUP members have been as totally engaged as the Westminster

MPs. Clearly some DUP strategists and backroom people, they have been

leading figures in the Remain campaign, but I do not think the DUP

has been as engaged as they might have been. On the Nationalist side,

looking at Sinn Fein and the SDLP, we have been trying to get

Nationalistss motivated using the issue of the border. As Mark was

pointing out, it remains to be seen if that is the case, if we look at

the differentials in turnout we will know whether that proves to be the

case. Do you fancy the notion of the mortal wound inflicted on David

Cameron, Tories into meltdown, General Election sooner rather than

later, and Jeremy Corbyn coming through the middle, and some new

definition of a political relationship between politicians and

people in future? No, I do not think it will happen any time soon. I

think the Conservatives have a mandate from the last when spinster

election, they are in for five years. If the result is less than

what David Cameron expected he may well resign -- last Westminster

election. He may be challenged as Prime Minister because I have a

feeling and I have had from the very start of this campaign that a lot of

this has been internal wrangling in the Conservative Party dating right

back to Ted Heath and there has always been a battle between the

Eurosceptics and the pro-euro group within the party. If David Cameron

does ball-mac, he will be replaced by someone who is still going to

continue with the austerity measures he has put in place, the cuts in

public services and public spending, and it was to damage our economy

continuing forward. Award on that. Do you think you will still be in

number ten at Christmas time? -- one word on that.

Likely that Remain will win. But I think both of them, that parties,

going to have rancour going forward. Something that we can discuss, the

establishment about the culture of flags and tradition. What do you

make of that commission? One of the faces that I had not heard of,

Armstrong, the rest of them familiar, some political, and some

not political. But having to take forward the cultures, identity,

flags, tradition, only one person from ethnic committees, not exactly

young, I think everybody has a role to play in this tradition, I wanted

to get a more diverse appointment, for the commission, however I wish

them well. I think the descriptive the an uphill task. Bot we want to

see them work. The Commissioner for appointments, not happy, she thinks

that the make up, one women, 14 men. This is an issue, that has been

debated at public, could this be the correct mix of people, to get the

agreement, sticking on the ground? I would not be convinced. And in a

specialist art. Not just because it is only one woman, it is decidedly

orange tint. How have shown Fein let that happen? I think it is something

that needs an answer. A number of individuals, that have links, to the

Unionist political parties. Some commentators have said that they

have bought into this, the difficulties could be resolved,

sticking on the ground. It is not by accident. It remains to be seen.

Possibility, that consensus can be built, but that requires consensus,

I am not convinced they will believe that. We will see. Thank you both.

That is it. Join me for an extended

Sunday Politics at Don't forget, there'll be local

updates from the Titanic Exhibition Centre on the half hour every hour

throughout the night - but let's head back to our

colleagues in London now to catch up feel already, a coming together this

evening, people who with the latest UK-wide picture.

evening, people who had strong views on

From everyone here in Belfast, for now - good night...

From everyone here in Belfast, on different parts of the

Conservative Party, already reaching out to each other and say - whatever

the outcome, as Douglas said, it's too early to say, we're hopeful we

will unite again afterwards. Conservative Party united is one

thing. What