08/09/2016 The View

11 weeks on from the vote that shook the UK, we've

Has the Brexit decision changed your attitude to the future

On The View tonight, we reveal the results -

and we ask our politicians what they make of them.

Tonight - as the implications of the Brexit vote slowly play out,

we asked people if they believe Northern Ireland is better off

staying within the United Kingdom or joining a united Ireland.

I will bring you the results of that survey, the first major measure of

public opinion here since the Brexit vote. Should there be a border poll?

How would you vote, and has the vote to leave the EU changed your

attitude? As the results are revealed,

we'll have the first reaction Plus - in the cut and thrust

of political debate, we know some politicians

like to tiptoe around the issues. But we'll have more from one mayor

who's more than happy to dance We'll get into the detailed poll

findings in a moment - and we'll hear plenty of reaction

from our panel of politicians - but first, here's a quick look back

at some of the views expressed over the summer on the possibility

of a border poll. Our case for a border poll is also

strengthened by the outcome of this vote. It is the next logical step,

and I think the case for it has been strengthened. I suppose the call for

the border poll was as predictable as flowers in May. We knew it would

come. But the test has not been met, so I do not believe it will happen.

What happens at some point in the future, where it might be evident

that a majority of people in Northern Ireland wanted to leave the

United Kingdom and joy in the Republic in an all Ireland

situation? Who knows what happens in 10-15 years' time? Whatever. So in

the same way as it was possible for the former east Germany to be

associated with west Germany and not to have to go through a very long

and tortuous process to join the European Union, these negotiations

should take these kind of things into account as well. Can he spell

out what he has a ready said publicly in Northern Ireland, why

there is no question of a border poll in Northern Ireland? I have

been quite straightforward in relation to the issue of the border

poll. The conditions are set out clearly in relation to the Belfast

agreement and I have been clear that those conditions have not been met.

So, those are the politicians' thoughts on a border poll,

but are they borne out by public opinion?

Well, for tonight's special programme we decided to find out -

and here's Mark Devenport with the first of our

So much for politicians calling for border polls.

What does our survey tell us about the public's appetite

for change in the wake of the Brexit decision?

Here are some of the results from the survey carried out

for The View between August 16th and September second

The first question we asked was - do you think the government should

33% of people said yes, there should be a border poll.

But the number of people rejecting that idea was 52%,

Breaking that down by community background, it's maybe no surprise

that Protestants are less enthusiastic about holding

By contrast, a narrow majority of Catholics want a referendum

I should point out, if you have your calculators out,

that some of these numbers have been rounded up.

That tells us whether you want the government to hold a border

poll, but if they went ahead and arranged one anyway,

A clear majority of those questioned, 63%, told us they'd vote

By contrast, the number planning to vote for Northern Ireland

to join the Republic of Ireland was just 22%.

13% don't know how they'd vote, whilst another 2% are not

Predictably perhaps, the overwhelming majority of those

with a Protestant background would vote to stay in the UK.

More than third of those with a Catholic background

would also opt to stay in the UK but 6% more than that,

43% of the Catholics interviewed, favour a united Ireland.

If we return to our overall figures for a moment we can provide a clue

to how opinion might be moving over time.

Three years ago, the same pollsters, Ipsos Mori, asked the exact same

question for the BBC's Spotlight programme.

A direct comparison with that survey shows a slight decrease in the level

It was estimated at 65% in 2013, that's two points higher

This difference, we should point out, is within

But when we isolate those opting for a united Ireland we can see

there's been a five-point increase in support for joining

the Republic of Ireland, which was just 17% back

That is something the pollsters think is significant.

Focussing on those with a Catholic background, more than four out

of ten told us they would back a united Ireland.

That is up eight points on the 2013 figure, an increase which also

Over the course of the last three years a united Ireland seems to have

leapfrogged staying in the UK as the most popular

Let's find out what my guests make of that first set

With me are Christopher Stalford from the DUP, Declan Kearney

of Sinn Fein, the SDLP's Claire Hanna, Steven Aiken

for the Ulster Unionists and David Ford from Alliance.

You are all very welcome and thank you for joining us. Declan Kearney,

first, according to these results, and there are lots of them, there is

no overwhelming appetite for a border poll to be called. 52% of

people do not want one, only 33% do. Significantly, a court of the

population in the north are indicating their wish to see the

island reunited. More important than the mechanism of carrying out a poll

and a referendum, it is the process of discussion that is quiet. We are

looking at an entirely dramatically changed situation. I believe there

is an appetite for a discussion about the future, what that should

look like, the trajectory of change taken forward. We need to be

innovative, radical and forward-looking about the discussion

that should be happening on an inclusive, national basis. When you

look at the snapshot that this poll is, only 22% would vote for a united

Ireland. 63% want to stay in the UK. That is a huge change you would have

to bring about to get the United Ireland that you say is achievable.

Yes, that is prior to the beginning of the type of inclusive national

conversation we would advocate should take place. There is an

appetite. There is a huge amount of uncertainty across Northern Society

of this particular point, uncertainty about the here and now

and the future. That is the basis on which we engage society on a

discussion about the future, the new constitutional future we should

explore on the basis of new compromise. But there was a knot of

uncertainty when the poll was being taken over the past few weeks, and

still overall, 43% of Catholics, less than 50%, want a united

Ireland. Surely if there was this direction of travel you are talking

about that would be well over 50%. So let's commence the debate and see

where it takes us. Why not have the debate? The first election in

Northern Ireland after the state was created, the leader of the Ulster

Unionists party command of the support of 67% of voters. If the

findings in your opinion polls are accurate, that means that over the

course of nearly 100 years, political nationalism has advanced

the ground some 4%. I think the fact of the matter is that people expect

better from politicians. We are living in uncertain times. That

increases the responsibility upon the government, but also upon those

who style themselves as the opposition, that we should try our

best to make the best of the decision taken by the British people

as a whole, in the referendum, and secure the best outcome for Northern

Ireland. That is what people want. You are not comparing like with like

when you look back to nearly 100 years ago. That is precisely the

point. The point is that we have been told for years by nationalist

politicians that a united Ireland is inevitable. These findings clearly

indicate that people do not want us to focus on those questions. We are

living in uncertain times and people want us to be focus on securing...

If you drill down into the figures, looking at those who want to see a

united Ireland, compared with the same question asked by the same

company three years ago, it is up 5% from 17, up to 22%. Within one

section. The point is, if it is up from a base of 17, up to 22, that is

hardly the basis on which you would have a border poll. The figures tell

us that is a significant move. Significant? 5%. People want us to

focus on securing the best deal for Northern Ireland in the coming

negotiations. The decision regarding the European Union has been made.

People are fed up with this. We are in a post-referendum environment.

That era is over and people want us to work together to secure the best

outcome for Northern Ireland, not to obsess on the constitutional

question. Claire Hanna, why obsessed with the national question when the

figures are, from a nationalist perspective, perhaps disappointing?

It is worth saying, and we warned well in advance of this campaign

that there were far bigger issues at stake. People might be frustrating

if we had half an hour to discuss Brexit fallout and we discussed it

through the prism of green and arrange. I think there is a

significant change, and it shows that constitutional views are not

fixed and constitutions are not fixed. What has not changed is the

fundamental things holding up progress towards united Ireland

before Brexit and 20 years ago, and 40 years ago. We have not moved on

on reconciliation within the northern half of Ireland, on

stopping being a basket case. The fact is that people's relationship,

and moderate nationalists, myself included, relationships have changed

with the United Kingdom. We had a comfortably tolerant regime,

tolerating jobs and we could do that in a tourist, social democratic UK.

With that changing, people's mood towards the United Kingdom has

changed. You cannot write out of history the changes in those

numbers. 53% of Catholics want a border poll, and on to to the first

question, but only 43% actually want a united Ireland. How come? In

Scotland, the polling was consistently in the 20s in favour of

Scottish independence, and it got, through the medium of the campaign

and through hard work and detail that I accept Irish nationalism has

not done, we have just seen what they campaign based on raw

nationalism got. Your position is that you would support a border

poll. Our position is that we are not ready. I accept it would be

destabilising. We have just seen a campaign fought with no plan and no

detail on the basis of atavistic passion. And we have just seen what

will happen. We have seen not least that a young woman MP is dead on the

back of it. We have seen what happens when you ask a very massive

question with two binary outcomes and allow that to be driven by

unthinking nationalism. What would Unionists have to fear from a border

poll? Why not call the bluff of Sinn Fein? I don't think we should create

more uncertainty by calling for a border poll. Perhaps having the

border poll and putting it to bed would create more stability. What is

the point? We are talking about the uncertainty caused by Brexit and

where we are going. We need to be talking about where we go from here.

One of the key things we need to talk about is what is the Sinn Fein-

DUP government doing about the plan about moving forwards? That is what

he is saying, let's have a debate about what the future might bring,

and perhaps this is an important part of it. Let's have the debate

about looking at Brexit and what we will do about Brexit. That is the

most important thing to face at the moment. That is what the people of

Northern Ireland want to hear from our government, what is the plan?

Full stop I would like to put a quote, Steve said that the result of

the referendum had dropped us into recession, do you not accept you

were wrong on that? Where are we getting to? Where are we going to be

in two or three years if we don't sort out this Brexit issue? There is

no doubt that Brexit is absolutely huge. We are going to come on

specifically to that so I don't want to get bogged down in that. I want

to bring David Ford in here. Do you think eight border poll would be a

useful exercise in the current circumstances? Do you think this

national debate would be a useful thing for us to be engaged in?

Methinks James Brokenshire was right in that clip from the House of

Commons, that the conditions set out in 1998 are not met and the are no

grounds for it. I also think eight border poll at this time would add

to the destabilisation we have already seen from the EU referendum,

there is no need for it and it would be destabilising. We need to

concentrate on the problems of this society and how we promote

reconciliation, how we build an economy, how we ensure we are fit

for purpose, not play around with issues that divide people. When you

look at the results of this Paul but is a snapshot of how people feel at

this moment, DC the direction of travel but both Declan Kearney and

Claire Hanno referred to? It is clear that while there was no

significant change in the numbers who support the UK position, 17% to

22% is statistically significant. Whether that is a short-term

emotional response to the referendum whether it it indicates a longer

term concern of people who would have been regarded as nationalists

who probably vote for nationalist parties but who are actually quite

content within Northern Ireland in the context of the Good Friday

Agreement settlement with a tripartite set of relationships

changing fundamentally and long term, that is the question. That is

asked again in a year or two, it would be interested if that was a

short-term blip or whether it's a fundamental change in attitudes

following the destabilisation of the EU referendum. Would it not be

better, Declan, to wait for six months or better still, from your

perspective, wait until negotiations have taken place after the tripling

of Article 50 because then a lot of the uncertainty may clear up and

Sinn Fein maybe in a much better decision to put forward an

attractive to people who at the moment frankly think the UK is the

better way, but in the scenario of two or three years down the

allowance may be persuaded by what it is you are arguing. These issues

cannot be disconnected. The position of Ireland is the central fault line

that rests inside Irish society and politics. That is what we have

worked with for 100 years and the Brexit decision is a direct

consequence and manifestation of the partition of Ireland. It is the

price and cost of partition. The popular view across this society is

that democracy has been shafted and it has, because the greater majority

of people voted to remain within the EU. How can you say that when they

British people, by majority voted? People of this region voted

overwhelmingly to remain in the EU, I don't think it is acceptable for

England to drag this part of Ireland out of the EU and further divide the

political and social nature of this island. We don't need further

division on top of the central partition and fault line that runs

through... 18 years ago devoted -- people of this region voted even

more in favour of the Good Friday Agreement and the need to ensure

partnership with the Northern Irish relationship with both Great Britain

and the republic. That is what it was about. Let me just press the

pause button because you are determined to talk about Brexit and

I am happy for us to do that in a second.

We'll pick up again very shortly, after we hear from Mark Devenport

Our last set of figures showed a comfortable majority

for staying in the UK, but some indicators of increased

support for a united Ireland, particularly amongst Catholics.

What impact, if any, might the result of June's EU

We asked those who said they would vote in a border poll,

either to stay in the UK or join the Republic, if Brexit had affected

that choice or if they had held the same opinion for a long time.

Those who said it had changed their view, 17%.

That's less than a fifth of all those planning to vote

And those who said it did not change their view, 83%.

Of those who told us they would be voting to stay in the UK,

only 11% said Brexit had changed their view.

Of those backing a united Ireland, a larger proportion, 32%,

attributed their current stance to the impact of Brexit.

Delving into the detail, those whose views may have been

influenced by the EU result seem slightly more likely to be female,

from a Catholic background and drawn from the affluent AB social classes.

But it's worth a reminder those influenced by Brexit remain a fairly

And let's put those findings to the politicians.

Christopher Stalford, were you surprised that the Brexit result

didn't have a huge impact on how people answered the question about

eight border poll? I wasn't surprised and I will tell you why,

because during the referendum campaign and I heard criticism from

my colleague, we had on both sides of the referendum campaign, very

extreme language used and after the result, the predictions that were

being made, you would have thought a plague of locusts was going to

descend on Belfast the way of which some of the two made immediately

afterwards was carried out. The truth of the matter is a lot of the

predictions made have come to nothing. Have they? I think they

have. I do recall in the Assembly you telling us that it was going to

sink us into a recession, do you stand by that? You think we will be

in recession by the end of the year? We could be. That is not what you

said. He said it would drop us into recession. I think this is a unique

opportunity for the country as a whole and I believe it is important

for all of us in positions of responsibility to pull together. You

don't think there is any confusion or absence of facts that gives you

cause for concern, Christopher? I sat in a committee meeting where a

senior Ulster Unionist figure told me that the Erie of remainders and

Brexiteer 's was over and it was our job to pull together to secure the

best outcome and they believe that is what the people except us to do.

Even if you are in opposition or government. There was that? Don't

want to name the person because it was in a committee meeting and

configured to right. They know who they were and they told me that the

era of Brexiteer 's and remainders was over. Claire, do we even know

what Brexit means Brexit means any more? I don't think it is acceptable

for us to watch along with whatever they come up with. You are not

washing a long, you're not doing anything. Christopher is like a man

who is jumping off a building 20 stories and saying it is going OK so

far. It is entirely premature. Clearly there has been a dead cat

bounce. Can we move the debate on? What we should be talking about is

what the Government plans to do about it? Tell us what you're going

to do. What we have said very clearly... In these negotiations

that are meant to be happening, the first and Deputy First Minister 's

speech from Northern Ireland in those discussions, they will

negotiate with the EU as a test on a state level but it is able to

influence the Government position but they don't agree with each other

on much of this area. There was a disagreement. The two parties came

at the issue from different perspectives. That didn't stop the

first and Deputy First Minister is sending a joint letter to Theresa

May outlining the concerns that we had and that is what a responsible

government does. They should outline the concerns that people have. We

tried to take on board the concerns that people like Claire Hanna

outlined and what was the response from the opposition? They told us

that they didn't really believe in Brexit in the first place. Declan,

significant numbers of people were really upset by the Brexit vote in

the way you suggest, would you not have expected that to be reflected

in your responses to this question in our poll and it isn't really

because the number of individuals who claim they change their view

because of the result to leave was only 17%, 83%, no change. I think we

are at the beginning of a watershed, the full extent of which has yet to

play out and it will take a lot of time for that to happen. Theresa May

has said Brexit is Brexit and we will make a success of it, the one

phrase I think she forgot to add at the end of that statement was, but

we don't know what we're going to do about it. And that has created a

situation of profound uncertainty that has impacted on the food

sector, the community sector, the voluntary sector for younger people

and older people in this society now. The net effect on all of that

is to have profoundly changed the political and economic landscape of

the North and it has run applications for the island and we

are only at the beginning of it. Christopher is sitting there saying

it'll be all right on the night, it won't. The reality is Christopher

has yet to indicate with any certainty what is the direction

travel. What we need to do is ensure... Sinn Fein is well-known

for making their negotiating position public. The best position

in the people of the North to remain in the EU should be respected and

the Government and Assembly should work in a united way to make sure it

is done. David Ford, isn't it the reality that as the dust on June's

referendum settles, people might in the first instance of rushed off to

get Irish passports because that is the way they saw things in the heat

of that moment, but they have not, this is what the polls suggest, they

have not switched allegiance en masse towards for example supporting

a united Ireland, things have calmed down quite a lot. In that regard

Christopher Stalford may have a point. I am not quite sure what

Christopher means when he talks about both sides. I don't remember

an election campaign before now where the people who once admitted

they were telling lies within 12 hours of the polls closing. There

are real challenges there. I acknowledged earlier on that was a

significant change in the numbers saying they would support a Ireland.

There is clearly an issue of people who want an Irish passport because

they want to stick they wish to be European citizens but we cannot tell

whether it is a short-term emotional reaction and how far it has

underpinned the whole basis of our settlement since 1998.

Thanks - and let's pause again and go back to Mark Devenport

for the result of the final question in our survey.

In the immediate aftermath of June's decision to leave the EU

the Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said another independence

Since then the SNP has appeared to moderate its language,

launching what it calls a new conversation

To try to gauge the potential impact here we asked our final question.

If in the future Scotland voted to leave the UK,

how might that affect your vote in a border poll here?

And there were five options for people to choose from.

18% told us they would be more likely to vote to stay in the UK.

By contrast, 15% reckoned they were more likely to vote

But more than half, 56%, said that if Scotland leaves the UK

it would not change their view on a referendum on this

9% don't know how Scottish independence might affect

their vote, whilst 1% aren't intending to take part.

Of course this is all very hypothetical.

We don't yet know if or when there'll be another Scottish vote

or what the result of such a referendum might be.

But either way, the majority of people here think a Scottish

independence vote won't change their outlook when it

And let's hear what the politicians make of that Scottish

Steven Aiken, it seems that what happens in Scotland is not of huge

influence to people. I don't think it would be because the people of

Northern Ireland want to remain in the knighted kingdom. It is

important that regardless of what happens in Scotland, the people of

Northern Ireland get a good settlement through Brexit. Are you

surprised by that finding? Not really. Maximum net possible effect

is 3%. People are more concerned about issues here than in Scotland,

and the issues will continue to need to be addressed by parties in

Northern Ireland to see that we work out a deal to get Northern Ireland

moving forward, not the kind of stasis we have been for the last few

years. In a period of change, people are more pragmatic than pollsters

and binary questions give them credit for. We know that views are

not fixed and can change. What people know, particularly those of

us who have to persuade otherwise, it has to be progressive, we have to

make progress. The question is, why in the last ten years when you have

been in government, has there been no progress towards Irish union, no

realisation of north - south working. A quick word on that, and

address the Scottish damage in as well. The British state as we know

it is in fundamental constitutional and political chaos. I do not see

that reversing and I think it will have ramifications for the break-up

of the British state and that will in turn have an impact, in my view,

on the political direction of the island here. Of that, there is no

doubt. If that is right, you are in trouble because this could turn on a

sixpence in three years, depending on what happens in Scotland,

depending on what happens in the article 15 negotiations, and you

could find yourself with a very different set of figures in three

years. -- Article 50. Northern Ireland has faced many crises over

the years and we have been told things will turn on a sixpence. Much

of the hype there has been since the referendum result has been generated

in a political media bubble. I think people are much calmer and more

reasonable than some of us who practice politics. I think our job,

all of us, whether in government or the opposition, and I welcome the

views of other people, we need to pull together to secure the best

outcome for Northern Ireland. That is what people expect and the First

Minister is committed to. One final word before we go about the

continuing controversy over revelations on the Spotlight

programme on which someone was filmed receiving money in a hospital

car park. You have tabled a debate on this on Stormont's first day back

on Monday coming. Everybody wants to know what is going on. This has been

going on for a long time. If we look at ?40,000 being handed over in car

parks, a year before the original discussion was had, when the issue

was kicking off, there is something fundamentally wrong and there are

questions that need to be asked. Did Sammy Wilson actually do Jude

village and is when he was appointed adviser? If you look at this, there

is something fundamentally wrong and that needs to be worked out now. And

we need answers, because it is undermining the confidence of people

coming to invest in Northern Ireland. If they see this and

continue to do this, it needs to get sorted out. Sammy Wilson is not here

to speak for himself or the DUP, but Christopher, you are. The National

Crime Agency, which is tasked with investigating this, and the police,

should take the lead rather than a group of politicians. I think what

people want and expect and what I want and expect is that any evidence

of wrongdoing is pursued to a conclusion. How embarrassing is it

for your party to see a man described as a friend by your former

leader, Peter Robinson, former First Minister and your former finance

minister, Sammy Wilson, accorded receiving a large cash payment from

a property developer in the circumstances we saw on Tuesday

night? Any person who has questions to answer needs to answer them to

the appropriate authorities. In this case, the appropriate authority is

the National Crime Agency and if there is evidence of criminal

wrongdoing, the Police Service of Northern Ireland. I think it is best

that the police and the NCA lead on this, rather than politicians. I

think it is important that we restore the fullest possible

confidence in the institutions at Stormont, which is why the NCA is

the best organisation to lead on this. Could be both the police and

it could be debated by politicians at Stormont. This represents

financial corruption at the heart of the establishment and the Northern

business class. It is a disgrace that this development has been

exposed in a context where we are seeing our manufacturing industry

decimated, workers losing jobs week on week, where people live in an era

of austerity. We need to see those responsible made amenable under the

law on a transatlantic basis. Michael Noonan should publish the

report he has taken possession of and we should see an all Ireland

Public enquiry into this criminal scandal. We have to leave it there.

This is a subject that will be debated at Stormont on Monday and we

will no doubt get an opportunity to look at it in more detail after

that. That's it from all

of us on The View. And in the week that one politician

caught the public's eye for all the wrong reasons

on the Strictly dance floor - poor old Ed Balls -

we spotted a much better from County Down,

who's world-famous for his tractors. Our Harry was the first man

to design,