30/03/2017 The View

tonight with another batch of rain moving in later tonight across parts

of the South and East. With the cloud cover mild temperatures

generally. Tomorrow something brighter. Not a great start however.

Grey, lots of cloud. Pretty wet in places particularly for Central and

Eastern areas. The persistence of that rain is likely to read to

surface water and spray that things will lighten up, late morning into

early afternoon. In the meantime that rain moves off to affect

Scotland. For England and Wales it is a show at the picture. Cloudy to

begin with. That's quite beating up to give spills of sunshine. Towards

the West and other batch of cloud and rain moving in across the

Republic of Ireland. After a drier and brighter start it will be a

cloudier and wetter end to the day. This time the West sees the bulk of

that rain moving in. A wet end to the day in the West after a wet

start to the day in the East. Still miles. Surely conditions carry on

through tomorrow night until the start of Saturday at least. Becomes

cooler on Saturday night. Not looking too bad on Sunday.

Our next BBC Newsline is at 6.25 in the morning

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Explore the speed of life with Radio 3's Free Thinking Festival.

and whether the West has been doing the same to Russia.

I'll be looking at whether Russia has been trying to subvert

America and Britain over the last hundred years -

and whether the West has been doing the same to Russia.

Would you call this a perfect picture? No.

It comes pretty close to it, but I couldn't find the exposure meter,

and I had to rely on what I do is the brightness of the moon.

The UK has just taken the first step in a two-year

Is it destined to be an unstoppable force,

in the words of the Prime Minister, or could it be on the

Tonight, Alex Salmond tells us the case for a Scottish independence

referendum is now strengthened and he says there's every reason

for people here to fear where the UK could be heading.

If I was an Antrim form farmer at the moment, I would be deeply

worried about the direction of travel of the United Kingdom

Government. So what will the next two years hold

for the DUP and Sinn Fein? Nigel Dodds and John O'Dowd give

us their Brexit predictions, as well as their view

of the stalled Stormont talks. Will another few weeks

of discussions make Our party founded Northern Ireland,

it would be unthinkable they wouldn't be around for the centenary

of our wee country. Many feel the party's now reached

a fork in the road - so which route should

its new leader take? And coming along for the ride,

our commentators this week are Fionnuala O

Connor and Alex Kane. Whatever your view on Brexit,

the clock is ticking and in just under two years the UK will be set

to leave the EU. So should there be a Scottish

independence vote at the same time? The First Minister of Scotland,

Nicola Sturgeon, certainly thinks so and tonight she's written

formally to the Prime Minister asking for an independence

referendum to be held in the next 18 Earlier this evening, I spoke

to the former First Minister, Alex Salmond, and I began

by asking him why the SNP wants that vote at such a critical stage

in the Brexit process? I don't see what the problem is

here. Every Parliament, including the Westminster Parliament, but

every Parliament in the EU have been offered the opportunity to vote on

the Britain/Brexit deal in 18 to two years time. Why shouldn't the

Scottish people be offered the same? The Prime Minister I thought it was

a significant event this week when Angus Robertson, the SNP leader in

Westminster, challenged the Prime Minister on the views of Scotland

and the Scottish nation. She said, oh, my goodness, Maidenhead, my

constituency voted to remain in the United Kingdom, in the European

Union, as if the thousand year of this triof Scotland as a -- history

of Scotland as a European nation was comparable to the Maidenhead. The

Prime Minister seems to have very little semblance of the importance

of a collective view of the Scottish nation and doesn't seem to

understand the difference between a country and an English constituency.

She made the point after that that she sees Scotland as a constituent

part of the United Kingdom. And that is how she wants it to continue and

feels that about Northern Ireland, and we will come on the that, as far

as the Westminster Government, even that time scale of late 20, 20, that

Nicola Sturgeon would want to see, the Westminster Government is not

happy about that. David Mundell said he thinks in fact it could extend

beyond that into a significant implementation time after Brexit has

happened, to give people a real sense of what Brexit means for every

corner of the UK. ? But what care what is David Mundell thinks? There

are 59 members of Parliament from Scotland and there is one

Conservative. His name is David Mundell. The reason he is Secretary

for state for Scotland, he is the one lonely Conservative from

Scotland. He has no authority or democratic mandate. He has the

electoral mandate of the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland. There

is no semblance of authority in his comments. But the Prime Minister and

this is the interesting thing, I have known many British Prime

Ministers and I have known their attitudes to Scotland and their

attitudes to Northern Ireland, and this is the Prime Minister who is

the -- has the least appreciation of Scottish nationality of any Prime

Minister. Margaret Thatcher, the foremost opponent of Scottish

devolution, never mind independence said, Scotland is an ancient nation

with a right of self-determination and no English politician should

stand in their way. Whether you like it or not, whether you like Theresa

May or not, she is in line with the 53% of people who don't think that

Scottish independence is a particularly good idea at the

moment. I know that is no at hard and fast figure, she is in the

majority view at the moment, you're in the minority. Well I think you

mistake us. The people who regard Scotland as a nation go beyond the

ranks of those who support the SNP or those who support independence.

The majority of people in Scotland, we are talking 90%, believe Scotland

is a nation with the right of self-determination. That wasn't the

result in the last referendum? Well, the last referendum in 2014 as I

remember the social attitude survey in 2012 showed us at 23% and we

ended up with 45%. Things have gone a long way since then. Nicola

Sturgeon has the right to believe a referendum would rutting in a

majority. -- result in a majority. Perhaps Nicola Sturgeon thinks the

unionist kab ist ca could be in a minority. Are you hoping for a bad

Brexit deal that will play into the SNP's hands and say the best option

for us looking at a disastrous Brexit deal is to go it alone? No

Nicola Sturgeon put forward what would have been a better perspective

for negotiation to Theresa May. She put forward the idea, the UK should

stay within the single market place, including Northern Ireland, that

would have solved the borderish ewe a -- border issue and said have a

different deal for Scotland in the same way as there must be a

differentiated deal for Northern Ireland. The Prime Minister could

accepted this, but instead chosen the path of confrontation. Theresa

May talks about national unity, but Northern Ireland is in deadlock, the

Welsh are alienated, the Scots are deciding on a referendum, the

English are split down the middle and her Brexit MPs walk out of

commons committees, because they don't like the truth of exiting the

EU. That is the reality. You don't have to cross your fingers for a

difficult Brexit deal. The brif edge is loom -- cliff edge is looming and

Theresa May is in the driving seat and does haven't any idea how the

steer the vehicle. Does the discussion about Irish unity in your

view help or hinder the SNP's aspirations for independence? You

know, when I was First Minister of Scotland, the leader of the SNP,

what I tried to do was help the process of peace in Northern

Ireland. As a friend of Ireland, argued strongly for that process and

responded to the invitations of Ian Paisley and Martin McGuinness to do

what I could to help that. That is still my attitude. I want to see the

parties in Northern Ireland come together and find their own place

within this firment. Not just to secure the constitution future. If I

was an Antrim farmer at the present moment, I would be deeply worried

about the direction of travel of the United Kingdom Government. In many

conversations, as a young MP, with big Ian and talking about our

respective interests in the agricultural industry in the

north-east of Scotland or in Antrim, we found many things in common. What

I found was a great practicality of trying to do our best for the people

who we represented. And these people right now when they see a United

Kingdom Government that seems to be pay nothing attention to the

economic realities which face our communities, we need to have

Northern Irish politics acting together to secure your place within

this changing environment and anything I can do, as I have done

before, to help that, I would be willing to do. You had common ground

with Ian Paisley, who was a unionist through and through and you're not,

you're quite the opposite. I want to ask you, if you think discussions

around the future of Northern Ireland and its constitutional

status help your case, that notion that where other people in another

country that may or may not have a poll on its status r discussing

their future outside is UK, does that mitigate the fear factor in

Scotland? When big Ian was first minister in Northern Ireland and

another unionist said to him, why are you having conversations with

this SNP person First Minister Scotland from Scotland? I remember

the words he spoke at First Minister's questions in Stormont, he

said, Mr Salmond speaks about her Majesty the Queen, I like what Mr

Salmond says about her Majesty of the Queen in his interpretation of

how the United Kingdom was. What Ian Paisley and what Martin McGuinness

had was the ability to transcend their previous positions to build a

better future for the people in Northern Ireland. And that challenge

is still there for politicians in Northern Ireland. But also for

politicians in London. Because these things are of enormous importance to

find the constitutional structure which will allow peace and

prosperity for people in Northern Ireland.

And listening to that are the deputy leader of the DUP, Nigel Dodds,

Alex Salmond said if you're an an an Antrim farmer you should be worried.

If I was a farmer in Ayrshire or a businessman in Glasgow I would be

more worried of Scottish Government and Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon

want to take in terms of United Kingdom than I would be in Northern

Ireland. Because just listening to Alex Salmond and I know Alex Salmond

well and he is a bit of a cheeky chappy. You like him? He is a

personable guy and he referred to Ian Paisley and I remember Ian

speaking warmly of Alex Salmond, because he is a Doughty fighter for

his cause and represents his cause and the people he represents well.

Here is the thing, he is very confident of his future success in

any fort coming referendum. I remember him telling me before the

last referendum he was certain they would win that. The reality is that

the Euan piano union -- European Union, the pretext for this

referendum,ive you have got to remember the single market of United

Kingdom is worth four times more in terms of economy of Scotland than

the European Union. Why would somebody want to leave the United

Kingdom single market in order to reapply at some point down the line

to get into a European market where you would have to have the Euro,

which is on its last legs and have a situation where the market is worth

less to the economy. Alex Salmond, this SNP have always liked to debate

and discuss the constitutional issue, especially when the SNP in

Scotland, Ruth Davidson much more popular than Nicola Sturgeon and it

serves their case to be talking of constitutional issues.

John O'Dowd, what do you make of that reported illogical position of

Alex Salmond? Might understanding is Scotland seeking to go independent

they are not going to break trading links with Britain or anywhere else

and they want to continue trading relationships because England and

Wales benefit from the trading relationship with Scotland as much

as Scotland benefits. Even if we are to have an independent nation here

we want to trade with our neighbours as well. This idea that we will

break away into isolationism is not true. That is the argument that

people who support Brexit make. They see it speaks perfect sense to me

the EU because the EU will always want to trade with us, you have just

made their case. There is a legal basis of which you are a member of

the EU which gives you rights and protections, which we will, in my

opinion, lose one specs it is fulfilled. The European Union and

its make-up and its background is part of the peace accord here and we

need to hold onto and build onto as well. And in terms of trading, the

single European market, Theresa May has already said we are leaving

that, we are going to leave that behind, we are going to leave behind

the union. They want to re-establish trading relationships with the

European Union, bottles trading relations are going to be, nobody

knows? Nigel Dodds, are you happy that the all Ireland conversation is

no part of the mainstream, not just a Sinn Fein demand, it is being

discussed by other parties in Northern Ireland, it is being

mentioned in letters written by British Government ministers, it is

part of the Scottish debate as well? We support the fact that on the

fifth principle of the letter that the Prime Minister sent to Brussels,

we were keen that this should happen, that the situation of

Northern Ireland, the Common Travel Area, the relationship with the

Irish Republic, should all be included, because we want the

frictionless border, tariff free trade if we can get that, we want to

see the Irish Republic doing well. It is not an anybody's interest, in

the EU, Irish Republic are any rare, that anybody should do badly out of

this, it is about retaining control are getting back control over our

laws, borders and money and that the same time repatriating up to the UK,

and Parliament, and the devolved regions, which we were discussing

and parliament this morning. But at the same time does not create

barriers where the do not need to be barriers. But are you not worried

about the discussion know about Irish unity? Danny Kinahan asked the

Prime Minister in the Commons yesterday she would support the

union during any order Paul, she said she would, but the fact she

asked that question, suggest you could be rumbled? No, the question

of a border ball in Northern Ireland has been ruled out. Before Christmas

the Prime Minister made it clear that there would not be a border

poll because the conditions under which it is being cold for do not

allow for it. Those who are calling for a border poll are acting against

what is said in the Belfast Agreement, therefore that is a

conundrum. Why did Danny Kinahan raiser to the Commons? That is a

matter for him. It was made clear by Theresa May and the Secretary of

State and others that there is no order poll on the horizon. It is not

going to happen? British Prime Minister stood at the dispatch box

in Westminster and said many things would not happen which later

happened. There will be a border poll in the future. We wanted sooner

rather than later. Even when you listen to Alex Salmond's comments,

two years before the referendum in Scotland, some of the same surveys

used to not back our demand, were sitting at 23% in Scotland, when the

poll took place, it was around 45%, let us have the border poll, let us

have the debate and the engagement and let the people have their say.

Even if it is distinctly probable that you will lose that poll? Let

the people have the debate, let us debate the issues in a rational and

reasonable manner, have all the information on the table, and then I

loathe people to have their say. The Scottish example is a good one. 23%

in opinion polls, when the actual poll took place 45, 40 6%. Alex

Salmond, talking sweetly and reasonably, he says, have this once

in a generation referendum. That'll be it. Here he is... And most

circumstances changed. At the time he did not see that. The SNP

subsequently put that into the manifesto but he did not make that

point at the time. To get on to this cycle whereby you have one border

poll after another. The reality is the circumstances under which it

should be set out are in the Belfast Agreement and it would be contrary

to the terms of the Belfast Agreement which John and I supported

for this to be called. The reality is that is not going to be one. In

terms of the economic 's and all the rest of it, what is the point of

saying that you did is to be part of the single market of Europe and then

wanting to divorce from the United Kingdom, which Northern Ireland is

utterly dependent on. ?10 billion per year coming from the Treasury. I

want John O'Dowd to come back on that quickly. There is no

contradiction with what Sinn Fein are saying about the border poll and

what was said in the Good Friday Agreement. In relation to the

economic question, there is one of the issues which need to be

thoroughly issued -- debated in relation to a border poll because

some of the assertions about how much intervention comes from Britain

to hear can be and will be taken apart and sensible debate. I want to

move on to the talks, talks between parties, Government representatives,

accusations from the SDLP this is a shambolic process, is the time upon

us where we need an independent cheer to try and move this install

process forward? Whether or not there is an independent chair, there

should have been more structure in previous discussions with other

parties. There were plenary sessions, it was not as that locked

doors. Sinn Fein did not agree to those. We were happy to have them, I

hope going forward we can have that. James Brokenshire was wanting to

encourage them. He was happy to have them. I wanted to be more assertive

in the talks. Was he not assertive enough? He needs to be more

assertive in the talks. Some people said he was out of his depth, is

that fair? I do not agree with that. There were people who came to the

talks who had different agendas, obviously, but there were some

people who only regarded their own agenda and were not interested in

Listing two other people, battles the problem. I did not Sinn Fein

want plenary discussions? To a plenary discussion you need to have

matters to bring to the table, meaningful papers bots to the table.

I will give you an example. The paper brought forward included an

element of the Ulster Scots. That said to us that the DUP were not

serious about resolving and implementing the issue. Maybe they

were very serious because they said they would never support and Irish

act but they were trying to break the deadlock. Imagine the response

of James Brokenshire. What it out of his depth? He was carrying out to

the letter that instructions of the British Government, do not give an

inch. They were not giving an inch in relation to legacy, where they

are still refusing to permit the funding called for by the lord chief

justice and are refusing to deal with security. He was carrying out

instructions. He is part of the problem. These talks can be resolved

quickly but it is on the basis of implementing previous agreements.

Nigel Dodds, James Brokenshire says there are a short few weeks to sort

this matter out. For the benefit of people watching this and who have

not got a clue what is happening, what is happening? Sinn Fein

waterway from the executive that was set up, for the reasons they have

set out, that is their entitlement. The Government collapsed. We could

have a big Government backed up and running on Monday. We were there to

do it, other parties were there, Sinn Fein refused to do it. When we

talk about health, education, community and voluntary sector

funding, that is extremely important, that should be the number

one priority. Parties could have done that. In terms of going for

but, John talks about this is not about new agreements, it is wet and

commenting off and, what they have put on the table are new demands,

you read lines. DUP is repaired to go into governments tomorrow without

any preconditions. John O'Dowd? I have never seen the public as

engaged in politics as they currently are so it is not fair to

see people have not got a clue what is going on. Since the RHI scandal

engagement has increased. These talks can be resolved in a matter of

days. But we cannot renegotiate agreements already made, we cannot

compromise on compromises we have already made and the DUP knows that

well. You have two and promote the agreements. You are putting new

demands on the table. This is not about implementation. Are you

prepared to comment the previous agreements? We will come and all the

agreements that we have signed up to and will implement them that what

you are doing is putting new demands. We need to bring this to an

end. I was not suggesting that people have not got a clue what is

going on, I was seeing people do not know what is happening because they

are not being told, but maybe they have a better idea after this

conversation. Thank you. In just over a week Robin Swann

will become the latest leader hoping to restore the fortunes

of the Ulster Unionist party. It follows a bruising Assembly

election when it lost six seats to slide further down the Stormont

pecking order behind the SDLP. One of those who lost her seat has

told this programme it would be unthinkable if the party wasn't

around for the centenary of Northern Ireland

in four years' time. But with others urging

merger with the DUP could Here's our political

correspondent Gareth Gordon. The uncompromising stand. The

fingers pointing to heaven. Lord Carson towers over Stormont to this

day. The party he leads does not. For decades Government made one

thing around here, the Ulster Unionist Party, but no more.

The trappings of that time are all that are left. If Carson was around

no, he would not recognise the party he once led.

In the Assembly election there bought me happy slightly up over all

but mere ten MLAs survived. Victims perhaps of the decision to introduce

five seat constituencies and the fight between the DUP and Sinn Fein

to see which party would be the biggest. For one of a high-profile

casualties that means spending more time on the family farm with her

husband. What do you think? She is pondering

her future and that of her party. People are telling me there needs to

be more Unionist cooperation but our party founded Northern Ireland. As

we approach the centenary of Northern Ireland it is important

that people have the choice at the ballot box and it is important that

we are here, the Ulster Unionist Party going forward. We founded

Northern Ireland, it would be unthinkable to think that the Ulster

Unionist Party would not be alone for the centenary of our country.

Whether it will rot will soon be the business of this man. When Mike

Nesbitt and he was standing down. Next week he will become the latest

leader who will try to break store the fortunes. Nobody else has put

themselves forward. Robin will present itself to the membership

next Saturday, they will have to endorse, people will be able to

challenge them, Robin has the support of every elected MLA, the

MPs, and a broad range of members across the party, I have no doubt

that,. That this man believes there should have been a contest that

would have allowed a debate. Closer unity with DUP, are you then in

opposition? How do you keep on? Can you keep people within the party? If

you do opposition have you the strength in depth to deliver a

meaningful opposition if you are dying to ten MLAs? As chair of the

Stormont committee -- if you are down to ten MLAs.

No he sometimes seems confused about what it is. What he needs to

understand is this vision of Unionist unity happening quickly

will not happen. If he seeks to listen to that guidance, the are

thousands of Unionists who will not fought for it. I will not fought for

it and are aplenty lately. Seen here addressing a fringe

meeting, once worked for the Ulster Unionist Party, and no worries about

its future. We are not talking about the reader that needs to steady the

ship, we are talking about the reader that needs to turn it around

and needs to get startling results quite quickly. That has been made

more difficult by the DUP's cynical reduction of the size of the

Assembly by reducing the number of Assembly members per constituency

rather than reducing the number of constituencies, that was designed to

reduce the size of the smaller parties, and in the end, as it

happens, that hits the DUP harder than anyone else.

Joanne Dobbson blamed Mike Nesbitt for her defeat. Now she blames

Arlene Foster. If the First Minister stood asaid, side we wouldn't have

shed the seats. It wasn't necessary if she had stood aside. But they are

in that position and with another election possible, Robin Swann may

not have long to decide what to do about it.

Now let's see what our commentators this week think of all that -

What did you make of Alex Salmond's contribution first? Well, I was

struck watching him talking with Nigel Dodds and John O'Dowd, I was

struck by the sudden realisation that the DUP is the only party to

wholly back Theresa May from the various bits of UK who has no doubts

at all about what she is doing. They have no doubts, no reservations

about the way she is handling it. Whereas in her own party, in

Scotland, in Wales and there are many doubts and a lot of opposition.

And of course it is because she has this narrow majority and they are,

they see themselves as her knights in shining armour. It hasn't always

been true that the DUP have been fond of English or British Prime

Ministers. They have had lots of reservations in the past. Alex

Salmond in robust form tonight, Nige l Dodds called him a Chipi chappy,

what is the -- cheeky chappy, what is the linkage between that debate

and the border poll in Northern Ireland. Where Alex Salmond is

right, no one has any idea what deal will look like in 18 months. We

don't know if it is a good or bad deal. But we know, particularly in

Scotland and Northern Ireland we have a lot of people who are

unsettled by this movement from the European Union. If there isn't a

good deal it will play to the SNP and into the small unionist and

nationalist who may be assumed to support the union and keep Northern

Ireland in the United Kingdom may not be so keen to keep it in a

United Kingdom that is not in the EU. That is a problem the DUP and

unionism needs to get to grips with. What do you think of idea that the

SNP wants a bad deal, the worse the deal that Theresa May gets the

better it is, the easier it is to make the case for Scottish

independence? Well there is probably some of that, it would be amazing if

there wasn't. I think it is a dangerous argument to pursue. There

is, the risk is too, no one knows where we will end up, the United

Kingdom or the rest of Ireland. The Irish Government is as perturbed as

people in Scotland and England. Let's talk about talks, did we get

any indication, clarification of where we are and where we are going

as far as this short window of opportunity is concerned at

Stormont? I have no idea, Sinn Fein said we are not talking, the talks

process is over. Michelle O'Neil said we are still talking to the

Parliament, are -- parties. Or are they talking because they want to

force an election? It seems clear listening to what John said to

Nigel, they're not talking about an agreement. I don't see when they

will kick start it again. Do you think Sinn Fein does want another

election? I don't think they positively want it, but I don't

think they're afraid of it. But really what nay want is something, I

don't think they can have, they want implementations of agreements they

believe DUP signed up, but no nobody with make them fulfil them. And they

say they did not sign up to that, it was to be brought in by a British

Government and neither a British or Irish government can asheave --

achieve that. You can see the head of steam, where MLAs are being paid

for doing a job that many think they're not doing and they're going

to get a pay increase on Saturday which is April Fool's day. They kept

the offices open and kept people paid, because they were terrified of

the people leaving, they can't keep doing that. It would be obscene.

Thank you both very much. That's it from The View

for this week. Join me for Sunday Politics

at 11.35 here on BBC One - and at the end of another week

when a deadline passed without a deal, we just happened

to notice that everyone was talking, but just not

saying anything new. # I'm only human after all! # Don't

put your blame on me! There had to be a spirit of compromise. We came

at the negotiation with the right attitude, the DUP didn't. But if

people come at it with the right attitude. # Some people got the real

problem! There had to be an independent chair, there is no

independent chair, chaired by an independent chair... Furious,

they're furious which can't seem to get it together, chaired by an

independent chair. There is no appetite for any alternative. We

have a short window of opportunity, I don't think there is any appetite.

There are a short few weeks. Time is short.

I want to feel every raw emotion that I can.