05/10/2016 The Wales Report


05/10/2016

Huw Edwards takes a look at issues that matter in Wales. What does Brexit mean for Wales? The programme speaks to first minister Carwyn Jones.


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Transcript


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And, in a new series, there will be no seed for Wales and the Brexit

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negotiating table so how will Welsh interest to be protected in the

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years ahead? I will ask the First Minister for his plans for Welsh

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life outside the EU. Stay with us. Welcome to a new series of the Wales

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Report and it could not be happening at a more important time in the

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political life of Wales. We know that the process of leaving the

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European Union, backed by Welsh voters will, will start in March

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next year, and we also know, thanks to a blunt message from Theresa May

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that there will be no formal place for Wales at the Brexit negotiating

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table, or any of the other devolved nations. What does Carwyn Jones make

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of that? And you can join in using our hash tag on social media. Before

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we spoke to Carwyn Jones we asked a prominent Welsh economist to outline

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the challenges of Brexit for Wales as he sees them. Leaving the UK have

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enormous implications. We have 40 years worth of secondary

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legislation, foreign policy, commercial policy, which we are now

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having to overturn. We either have to recreate it or replace it. It is

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a big deal. One can think of for quite separate areas where it could

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have a first or the effect. One is resource flows to Wales. We know

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that the European Union in structural funds alone provides ?1.8

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billion over six years, ?300 million per year, 2% of the total Welsh

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budget. Maybe one fifth of its capital budget. Will those fun to be

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replaced by the British government? Big question. I don't know that I

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would be all that confident of it, frankly. Trade is another area, will

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we have free access to the single market or not? Will there be

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tariffs? Nontariff barriers? That is not all bad, actually, on the trade

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side because the biggest Welsh export market is the USA. And there

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are many progressive companies in Wales that are selling to the third

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World, Africa, and Asia. They will probably benefit because we have

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already seen the pound down as a result of Brexit and my view is it

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will go lower. When you come to foreign investment I think that it

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is easier to see that we have got the wind in our face. This will be

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able to hold. Many of the companies that we are able to attract into

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Wales were looking to sail into the European market. Maybe they can

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continue to do so. Maybe it won't be much worse. But it certainly won't

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be any better. And finally there is the whole issue of regulation. Many

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people have hopes that leaving Europe will enable us to dispense

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with red tape. I am afraid that I think that is a very exaggerated

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hope. I think Carwyn Jones has said the right things. His hand is

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weakened by the fact that the Welsh electorate voted to leave. If he was

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sitting on the Northern Ireland or the Scotland vote he could say,

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look, we didn't vote for this. As it is he has a bit of a problem that we

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are in the same bag as England, and she has to deal with that political

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fact. I think that there was a case for having a minister, or some

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senior person with full-time responsibility foreshadowing the

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Brexit discussions. They seem sufficiently complex and

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wide-ranging to me that having somebody with a political

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responsibility keeping an eye on it all the time, I would have thought

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there was a case for that. There is a major problem of coordination. The

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responsibilities will run across departments. I hope and that things

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are improving but certainly historically it has been a weakness

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for the Welsh Government. Ministerial responsibilities taken

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very seriously, but tending to be silent. That was the economist Jerry

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Houlton giving us his sense of the challenges ahead. The First Minister

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is with me, thanks for joining us, we will chat in a second but what we

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should do at this point is remind ourselves of what the Prime Minister

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has been saying in Birmingham this week, specifically in a Welsh

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context. I was very pleased that one of my early visits as Prime Minister

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in July was to Cardiff, and I sat down with the First Minister and

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talked with the Secretary of State about how we would involve the Welsh

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Government in the discussions that we have. Of course it will be the UK

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that is negotiating with the EU in terms of the terms of Brexit, I want

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to make a real success of it, but in doing our preparations I want to

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listen to the devolved administrations, and here the

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particular issues in different parts of the UK. So that they are fully

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engaged and will continue to be. As we go through the negotiations we

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need to ensure we get the right deal for Britain. That is what I want to

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do. But alongside that there are real opportunities for the UK as we

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leave the EU and we have opportunities for trade around the

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world, so I will be looking at developing those opportunities as

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well. We're going to make a real success of leaving the EU so there

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will be some tough negotiations, they will take time and there will

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not be a running commentary on the negotiations, but as we do that we

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will be looking at the opportunities we can have, and one of the things I

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have been absolutely clear about, it is my vision for the government that

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I lead, it would be a government that works for everyone and not just

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a privileged few. We need to look at the opportunities that we can see

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around the world. And we need to look at how we can ensure that we

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are providing support where it is necessary, we have already been

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clear in terms of agriculture that we will continue in terms of the

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financial support, certain financial support that farmers are getting, up

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until 2020, but we need to talk to them about what will then becoming

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ever after. It gives us an opportunity, it gives us the

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control, that is one of the key issues, a lotta people when they

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voted to leave the EU it was about not having control over their lives,

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and as the British government we will be the ones who are able to

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make decisions about how we ensure that the economy is working for

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everyone across the country and society is working for everyone

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across the country. That was the Prime Minister speaking in

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Birmingham just a few days ago and of course she had a big speech to

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deliver today at the conference, thank you for joining us, First

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Minister, lots of April are concerned when they realised

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suddenly that those negotiations are happening at the EU, on the Brexit

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process, there will not be a formal role for Wales. That must bother

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you. We had been promised engagement and consultation but what does it

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mean in reality? There is a template for this. When I was agricultural

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minister we would meet on a regular basis, with the four MAC

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governments, sitting down and working out respective positions

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when discussions took place at European level. I expect that to be

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put in place. It is right to say that the UK Government will carry

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out the negotiations, that is true, it is in the driving seat, but in

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all seriousness the UK Government cannot be thinking that it wants to

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have an agreement that is opposed by Scotland, Wales, and in Northern

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Ireland, where there are major issues that need to be resolved, so

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the wider the buy in surely the better it is. I will remind you of

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what you said not so long ago, if this becomes a two-way dialogue

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between Brussels and London it will fail. Cardiff, Edinburgh, and

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Belfast must also have seats at the table. At the table, for most

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people, would involve being in the room with people like Boris Johnson,

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Liam Fox, and who ever else, and that is not now going to happen, so

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I wonder if you think we are heading for failure in that sense? We will

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continue to talk to the commission ourselves. And we've been talking to

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Gibraltar, they have a particular about what it might mean for them.

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So from my perspective I'm saying that we expect to be part, not of...

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Not expecting to be told what is happening, but to be able to feed

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into what the UK position actually is, and to my mind that there should

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be ratification by all the parliament within the UK, the

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difficulty we have is the UK Government has no real idea of where

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it goes next, the hardline supporters of Brexit, their promises

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are now disappearing, and were seen blind panic. In some sections of the

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UK Government. It needs to get it act together and explain to the

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people of Britain exactly what the red line is in negotiations, and

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explain what it sees as the best outcome for Britain. We have not had

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that so far. There is no sense from any of the ministers that there

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should be ratification, as you call it, from the devolved parliaments,

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there is no sense of that, is that your understanding? Are you

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expecting this to be a formal ratification process? Because I

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don't think they are. They are already in trouble over the

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triggering of the article 50 process with court challenges in Northern

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Ireland. It makes perfect rational sense for there to be as much by in

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as possible. If you look at Northern Ireland for example, EU membership

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is an integral part of the peace process. Will they really impose a

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settlement in the teeth of problems in Northern Ireland? It makes no

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sense at all. So far so good from the UK Government, what they promise

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of engagement, we expected to be real, not coming back later saying,

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this is what we agreed for the City of London, but and manufacturing are

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not so important. Because there are elements of the UK Government that

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actually believe that. That put it another way. You make your case in

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terms of the consultation process that the prime and star has

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mentioned. You then have to have faith that those views will be taken

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in to the formal negotiations on Braxton, and that will be Liam

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Johnson and David Davis, so how can Welsh people have faith that the

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Welsh interest will be at heart? And secondly, what will you do if you

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don't dig you are getting the kind of purchase that you need? I will

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say so, and say to the people of Wales, we need the UK Government to

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insure that there is a Welsh voice. We will make common cause with the

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other devolved administrations where we can. It is not just about

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politics. There is a sense to this. If you look at farming and

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fisheries, they are both areas where the UK Government has effectively no

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role in Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland. They cannot do all the

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negotiating on our behalf then present us with a fake company. We

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need an input. So far they have said it will happen. They have not said

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the door is shut to Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, and Gibraltar.

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Have had the promise of engagement and it is time to make good on that

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promise. But before we even get to that position and to understand

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exactly what their position is in terms of any negotiation. Liam Fox

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is saying, hey presto, at the we will unveil a load of free trade

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agreements. The miraculous, it has never been done in human history in

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that period of time. David Davis has said, it does not matter if we have

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tariffs, ?2 billion to the Exchequer, paid for by the consumer,

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Joe Public, and disastrous for manufacturing. My greatest fear is

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that they will focus on the City of London to get a good enough for the

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city at the expense of other sectors of the economy, and that, clearly,

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for Wales, is problematic. On the single market, because this is right

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at the heart of economic or it and is very important for Wales as well,

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is the opposition now that you can buy an outcome which is basically

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saying we will not be having full membership, formal membership of the

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single market, that we will have some kind of access to it, some

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negotiated access, would that you be a good outcome, or just unacceptable

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outcome or, what is the ideal? The red line for me is no tariffs. Any

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outcome that lead to tariffs is bad. It will mean of course that it makes

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it impossible for us to say, and this has been a fantastic success, a

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successful route we have taken, it will be impossible for us to say to

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investors, come to Wales because you have access to the European market

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which is bigger than America and Russia combined. If we have tariffs

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of the investment will go elsewhere. So tariff free access is absolutely

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essential, anything else has to be built on top of that. But without

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that, no agreement will be worth the salt.

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Big you think it will be worth, in terms of the concerns over freedom

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of movement, you think seeding membership of the single market is

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worth it in order to have control over freedom of movement? No, I

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think we should have access to this angle market. Where are you on

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freedom of movement? Noah has the answers to this yet, one of the

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areas it could be, for example, there could be as seven hyping year

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moratorium on freedom of movement as it currently stands, in order to get

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other countries time to catch up. That's one possibility. While we

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reckon as we do need to move back in for, is it possible to have freedom

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of workers rather than freedom of people? So if there is a job in the

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UK, they can move freely. These are all things that can be explored. At

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the heart of this is that people had no control over their lives, and

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people were taking jobs that may be made available to them. That issue

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has to be addressed, whether it's correct or not. It is important we

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say to people, people are coming here to pay taxes and patented the

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health service, they're not taking jobs that could be done by local

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people. To what extent have you been successful telling people that there

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is, clearly, an advantage to being open to workers from other parts of

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the EU and the world, that that is very important aspect of of

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movement, is that a aspect you are moving away from? I made it

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absolutely clear that there is no country in the developed world that

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doesn't draw doctors from other countries. It's world market. The

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idea you can only have UK doctors is nonsensical. The Government in

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London is talking about cell sufficiency? It's crazy, it can't

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happen. It takes at least ten years to train someone to the level of

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consultant. I want the best doctors working in the health service, I

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don't care where they're from. I want the best with people of Wales.

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The message that the Government in England is giving is that you can

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come and work for us, but when we have had enough of you, we will chug

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you out. That is a great way of attracting the best brains. They are

:15:56.:16:00.

now proposing a list of foreign workers. That is the most sinister

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thing I have heard. She said it was possibly a knowledge, not formal

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policy. In other words, I said it, and that I regret saying it. This

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list, is this the 1930s? It is a crazy situation. As public sector

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employers in Wales, we will not be doing that. You will not be doing

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that, but you're still acknowledging that there are concerns around

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freedom of movement which bed into the result in Wales over the

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referendum. There are two messages here just as you are concerned over

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uncontrolled freedom of movement? I'm not concerned over freedom of

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movement of doctors and nurses. In fact, I wanted the best people

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coming from abroad into Wales. There are plenty of firms in Wales? They

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will bring their own people in, that is crucial. We are saying to

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companies you can't employ anyone outside the UK? So what is the

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freedom of movement that you do want to control? It is the low-pay that

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is the issue. People who are in jobs where they feel they are badly paid

:17:19.:17:23.

and had no security of employment, no pension at the end of it. They

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are under pressure of their incomes due to the fact that the businesses

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can employ other people in the areas where they work, that has brought

:17:33.:17:37.

pressures on wages. I have heard that and it is true in the terms of

:17:38.:17:44.

the low paid, it is not true on the other end of the spectrum. What

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would be your message to those ministers in London on freedom of

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movement? The last thing we want is to restrict doctors and nurses

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coming into the UK, we've always relied on them and training doesn't

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work in itself. You can train doctors, but they may go to other

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countries. What about foreign students? We want them here, white?

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They pay higher tuition fees then well students do. If they do not

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come here, tuition fees will come up for home students. Warren students

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subsidise the education of UK students, that's the reality. We

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want to bring the best brains into Wales and into Britain, because

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other people who were pure people in the future and set up businesses in

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the future if they choose to stay in Britain. Working with the people we

:18:38.:18:45.

already have here. The Home Secretary has spoken about people

:18:46.:18:52.

with lower-quality altercations, in Wales, that would mean distinction

:18:53.:18:55.

between our universities, is that healthy? No. We need to make sure

:18:56.:19:01.

that the courses offered sufficient standard. Is that the case in Wales?

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We have very good universities in Wales. Across-the-board? Foreign

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students coming to Wales, and there are advantages there. If you look at

:19:16.:19:18.

it purely financially, they pay more. If you look at what they can

:19:19.:19:23.

contribute, they bring in their own knowledge. Also, if the come to

:19:24.:19:28.

Wales and study and return to their home countries, they're ambassadors

:19:29.:19:32.

for Wales. I've met people all around the world he came to

:19:33.:19:35.

university here, have a great memory of that, and positions where they

:19:36.:19:39.

can take decisions about jobs in different parts of the world. If we

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cut ourselves off from that, and cut ourselves off from so much in terms

:19:46.:19:51.

of being sale the macro able to sell Wales around the world. We had the

:19:52.:19:56.

chance at this work document turbulence, a roller-coaster right,

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the Autumn Statement coming up could be a bigger squeeze possibly on

:20:00.:20:05.

public steam the macro spending. What is your strategy around

:20:06.:20:10.

spending? We have to see what the Autumn Statement actually says. I

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welcome moving away from this scripture is of austerity, if I can

:20:16.:20:19.

put it that way. The Robbie decisions we have to take. --

:20:20.:20:28.

strictures of austerity. We had five years between 2011 and 2016 where

:20:29.:20:32.

there was no products that we broke. It was not easy to do that. -- no

:20:33.:20:37.

promise that we broke. We want, at all costs, to avoid the temptation

:20:38.:20:44.

that afflict all politicians to make promises we couldn't keep. In our

:20:45.:20:47.

manifesto, we made sure we could keep our promises, it even bearing

:20:48.:20:51.

in mind the squeeze coming down the line from Whitehall. The IFS by

:20:52.:20:59.

saying there could be a real terms reduction of several% of the funding

:21:00.:21:07.

that comes to the Welsh Government. What are going to be your spending

:21:08.:21:12.

parties? What we can't do is salami slice, that is not strategic or make

:21:13.:21:17.

sense. What we have to do is look carefully at our budget and take

:21:18.:21:20.

strategic decisions on what we want to fund. Simply cutting bits here

:21:21.:21:27.

and there is not going to work. It doesn't make sense in terms of what

:21:28.:21:31.

we're trying to do to make Wales a better place. The Prime Minister's

:21:32.:21:38.

case today is that health spending in Wales has compared unfavourably

:21:39.:21:43.

compare to England and has performed unfavourably compare to England,

:21:44.:21:48.

that is their experience, what is your thoughts? First law, it is not

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even true. We spend more on health in Wales and England does per head.

:21:57.:22:02.

That is a fact. We know that when the different health services in the

:22:03.:22:06.

UK were like that, there were no substantial differences. Whenever

:22:07.:22:11.

anybody wants to criticise Government elsewhere it is a sure

:22:12.:22:19.

sign they are in trouble. This cannot be solved by deporting

:22:20.:22:24.

doctors. They are now saying to doctors who work in Britain, you can

:22:25.:22:29.

stay here for a while, then we will chuck you out. That is effectively

:22:30.:22:35.

what they were saying. I've following to the same trap, because

:22:36.:22:40.

I've accused them of something. From our perspective, we are happy with

:22:41.:22:44.

the health service and the money we have put into it. We know it

:22:45.:22:49.

delivers for the vast majority of people, day in, day out. It is a

:22:50.:22:55.

question of focusing on those errors. Are you happy with the

:22:56.:23:01.

current Labour leadership, another Jeremy Corbyn's been re-elected and

:23:02.:23:04.

people are retractable behind, you also pulling behind him? Yes, it is

:23:05.:23:10.

vitally important the party in Westminster actors opposition. Is

:23:11.:23:14.

not doing that now? Adam Taggart has been. -- I don't think it has been.

:23:15.:23:24.

People in the party have different views, but those views are expressed

:23:25.:23:32.

in a friendly way. We came through the last election with 29 seats,

:23:33.:23:36.

though we were told we would have far fewer than that. We won every

:23:37.:23:40.

seat in a labour force as Tory straight fight. The objective

:23:41.:23:49.

politics is not to transform a political party, it is to deliver

:23:50.:23:53.

for the people who voted for you. The people voted Labour want to note

:23:54.:23:58.

the Labour Party in Westminster will stand up for justice and

:23:59.:24:02.

opportunity. We haven't done that. We haven't done that up to now, so

:24:03.:24:06.

it is important we unite as a party and start to be an effective

:24:07.:24:12.

opposition. When you choose one to represent Wales on the executive

:24:13.:24:19.

committee, you chose Alan Davies. Hidden the past he has been on

:24:20.:24:22.

record as not being impressed with Jeremy Corbyn. Where did you do

:24:23.:24:28.

that? Firstly, the gravitas to do the job. He has availability for the

:24:29.:24:35.

time in the NEC meets, so I know he will be able to do the job. I am

:24:36.:24:42.

told that Jeremy Corbyn felt he was not the ideal choice because it was

:24:43.:24:50.

not I ideological eat sympathetic to what the leadership is trying to

:24:51.:24:56.

achieve? In my judgment, ie had to pick who would speak for Welsh

:24:57.:25:01.

Labour. Per semester, thank you very much. That's all we have time for,

:25:02.:25:09.

don't forget if you want to e-mail us, the address is... From now, from

:25:10.:25:18.

the Senedd in Cardiff Bay, thanks for watching.

:25:19.:25:26.

The Wales Report with Huw Edwards returns for a fifth series on BBC One Wales. In the first programme of the new series - what does Brexit mean for Wales? The programme speaks to first minister Carwyn Jones.


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