14/06/2017 The Wales Report


Join Huw Edwards in Westminster for this week's The Wales Report for all the latest fall-out from last week's election and what it means for Wales.

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Tonight on The Wales Report, we are at Westminster in a turbulent week


politics, just six weeks after the election that produced a hung


parliament. Trees May and the Conservatives are telling power,


just, but what does the outcome mean for the biggest issue facing us all,


the Brexit process and its impact on jobs and the economy in Wales? Stay


weathers for The Wales Report. -- stay with ours. Good evening. And


welcome to Westminster for this edition of The Wales Report. Forget


all that talk of strong and stable, this week we are considering the


aftermath of the hung parliament and uncertainty that it brings. A


minority Conservative Government probably sustained by the Democratic


Unionists with the all poor to Brexit pox due to start next week.


Tonight we will be considering the challenges for Wales, is public


services and other matters as they are defined here in Cardiff Bay. You


can get involved and social media. In a moment, I will be talking to


the former Conservative Secretary of State, Stephen Crabb. But first my


college reminds us how we got to this rather unexpected point.


Just before ten o'clock, I was handed the exit poll, and to be


honest null others where quite expecting this. There we are,


Conservatives the largest party, that is the poll, and we have the


detail. What followed as the results came in was ten hours of high


political drama. But the impact of that night the last far longer. So


what happens next? Six long days on, is it all up for grabs again? And


the policies, manifesto commitments and above all Brexit and away we the


European Union. I think in many respects some of the discussion


around, not icy soft and hard Brexit, but a different model of


leaving the EU whilst retaining a foothold in the single market would


likely be on the agenda now, and we know that something that Carwyn


Jones has articulated clearly in the white paper and has argued for in


terms of the best interest of Wales. The downside is we know the balance


of power lies more firmly with Northern Ireland, particularly


through the DUPed involvement in Government and still with the SNP in


Scotland, because despite having lost seats they remain a big group


of MPs with a very strong voice in Westminster. Both Labour and Plaid


Cymru of any say that the relationship between Wales and


Westminster has the change. Last year but we didn't know was what


kind of Brexit we wanted. What is quite clear now after this election


is that people do not want the kind of hard Brexit that Theresa May was


suggesting before last Thursday. Theresa make all the election for a


strengthened hand in Brexit. She has come out of the process with a


weakened hand from her perspective. But it does mean now that Wales has


an opportunity to make sure that our voice is heard and on the agenda, so


Plaid Cymru wants to see a four nation 's cross-party approach to


Brexit negotiations and we would like to see a delay in the beginning


of these negotiations so that all parties can have an input. Sony


pick-up is my daughter is at the helm, but strong and stable is


unlikely to be one of Theresa make parred races after that campaign.


But her critics accusing her of trying to form her very own


coalition of chaos. The Conservatives in Wales are calling


for change. When we look at the results, we can be proud of what we


achieved in the overall share of the vote. But sadly no prizes for coming


second in the selection and we lost three excellent parliamentarians and


our candidates in our targets is well unfortunately not winning.


Despite getting swings of 12%. I personally believe in the second


decade of the 21st century we need a more distinct Welsh brand that can


promote Web principles and values while using the strength of the


United Kingdom as a springboard into elections and well. One thing we


have learned of the past year is never perfect, expect the


unexpected. But it is there to protect one thing. With a minority


Government, Brexit, potential leadership challenges and unforeseen


events, this Government is in for a bumpy ride.


I am joined now by the former city of state for Wales am a former


Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, Stephen Crabb. By find


joining us. What went wrong with Conservative campaign? With the


benefit of hindsight, there was a lot wrong with the campaign. Some of


those things I personally highlighted during it with the party


chairman. But other things as well, like the impact of the social media


campaign which was really something we were not prepared for as a party,


the impact it had with younger voters, clearly with the benefit of


eyesight we need to do some analysis and understand how that is changing


politics and. Does Andrew Hartley Davies have a point that the


Conservative Party in Wales does not have the kind of specific clearly


defined Welsh identity that it needs? I disagree with Andrew on


that. Two years ago we had an election when the best result in


Wales for Welsh Conservatives since 1983. We had that distinct Welsh


voice and fought a very unified campaign between Wales and the UK,


and we did very well as a result. We don't need to pick over everything


that went wrong, but they were problems with the Bell's campaign,


the slight disagreement at times with the Secretary of State and the


leader of the worst Conservatives in the Assembly, that did not help.


Overall the fact is it worked against as in Wales as the and the


UK. We do not see the Labour surge coming. We did it we chat with


attractive policies for younger working families, particularly


working families who have not seen a real wage increase for maybe eight


or nine years. That is where we need to look at, not the issues of


cultural identity. Having Barwell lost his seat, he is not Theresa


Mayed chief of staff. He said on Thursday night before he was


appointed to this new post. Teachers are coming up and saying that we're


not realising the position we been, public services, you are not given


any kind of message that I want to hear. Was that you're experiencing


any part of Wales. Two days before polling day on the Tuesday, in


Milford Haven, a woman I spoke to Ronnie Dawson who was a nurse told


the she liked me and did a great job, and she said she could not vote


for me, and I said why not, she said because she cut to the nursing


bursaries. We really did you how a more closely to the needs of the


public sector in Wales and across the UK and clearly the seven years


of wage restraint has kept a limit on wage growth for people in the


public sector, we need to be looking at that. It is about time people


across different sectors had a wage increase. Based on her track record,


do you think the Prime Minister is the right person to listen? Can she


listen? But she sure that she is able? One of my frustrated during


the campaign was that I didn't feel the country was seeing the full true


Theresa May. All the reasons why in the party flopped around her as the


new leader, one country responded excitedly well to her when she


became Prime Minister a year ago, we lost some of that flavoured chewing


the election campaign. I wonder that the campaign buttons are up and we


didn't get to see that range of qualities and skills which I think


mean that she is the very best person to lead the Government, take


us forward and for all of the challenges ahead with not having an


overall majority, I still think that she had got every possible chance of


taking us the full distance, but it will be bumpy. Not least if she does


from a deal with the DUP, we have had people like John Major who is


very experienced in Northern Ireland saying he has great concerns about


this. Do you share those concerns with Mac there are real concerns. We


are in a difficult period with Northern Irish politics. On top of


that, in the challenge with Brexit and the Irish question, so clearly


there are concerns that need to get Ed, but equally there are


politicians like Lord Trimble who is at the very heart of the peace


process who has said that a deal with the DUP is not necessarily a


negative barrier to further progress in not an island. We should not get


too hung up. If Labour Party had fallen short of being the overall


majority, they would be talking up to the DUP. They have done in the


past. Previously believers have restarted Ulster Unionist. That is


what you do when you're out in a hung parliament situation. Britain


needs a Government. I don't think there is any appetite for an


election straightaway. What is the upturn of? You get on with the


business of Government. The request of the peace process in Northern


Ireland, John Major referred to it. The other question is the attitude


of the DUP on some social issues in terms of women's rights, very


serious issues which people have what many years to achieve. I do


come trouble with that relationship? And comfortably the kind of values


that the DUP who -- DUP espouses? If there is any question on the social


issues on the table for discussion, as part of any governing


arrangement, myself and a great many others would be saying no, close


this off, this is not healthy for the national interest. We don't want


to be doing that. But they have got their different values, we need to


respect that, there is a different political culture in Northern


Ireland. The Labour Party in Northern Ireland held an identical


view on abortion and the DUP, so we have got to respect the fact that


Northern Ireland is a bit different. But you say that would affect


Theresa May's thinking? We're not putting that up for discussion. We


are strengthening equalities legislation. If there is any with


that that will be revisited as part of the rate of the DUP, myself and a


lot of others would be saying, Theresa, commerce. That is a very


clear message. This talk about the other big issue that overshadowed


everything, Brexit. Talks due to start the week. Very clear noises


coming from the Treasury that the Chancellor would like to see a


refocusing on the economy, jobs, a different kind of Brexit outcome to


that was envisaged by many of your colleagues before. Can you give is


your sense of where that pose beginning and should people be


reassured by the fact that there are people speaking out about


cross-party consensus? Be different place? We are in a different place,


and that is partly because of the result of the election. The


Conservative Party on its own is not the vehicle to deliver Brexit. We


need to reach out and work with other parties. When it comes to


Brexit, not just relying on DUP. I personally believe and leave others


believe that we need to be reaching out across the divide in the chamber


to the official opposition and trying to forge as much consensus as


possible. What I would like to see as you've heard it from William


Hague and others that that consensus can come together around a vision of


Brexit that puts jobs and economic security at its heart. Rather than


discussions for example about the need to have the hardest possible


line on immigration control, for example. How would that consensus be


achieved in a special commission, a special committee? How do you arrive


at that consensus? There are different options. William Hague has


put up forward one idea of having a commission that brings in business


leaders, trade unions. I think that is worth looking at. I don't like


the word commission, but clearly the essence of that must be right. There


must be a way that we can forge more national unity around Brexit. You


are very clear about that direction. And I just picked you up on the


freedom of movement, immigration question? Lots of your colleagues at


had been very clear and said the top priority is still to control freedom


of movement, edit, immigration is the top concern for them. It isn't


for you? I speak very personally. I not somebody who lies awake at night


worrying about the overall levels of immigration into this country. If


you look at the population of Britain, it is changing and we need


more workers coming in, not just skills but right across every


business sector. I do recognise that freedom of movement in its current


form, where Britain effectively has no ability to run its own


immigration policy, that will need to change. But what I would be


saying to colleagues in Government as let's not get hung up on the


purity of that issue. If it means we're going to sacrifice our


business competitiveness and create more jobs and our economy. That is


the most important thing for me. Wales needs more jobs and we need to


become a more prosperous nation. Let's not do things that and


economic terms. A final indication on the shape of


the deal. Quite a view of your colleagues are saying, this notion


of being part of the customs union, if there is more flexibility of our


freedom of movement, might offer a compromise which most people could


come around and could agree about. Does that make sense to you? Is that


the kind of every other could attract majority support? That is


the kind of arrangement that could be looked at. It could be an interim


arrangement. Perhaps a longer interim arrangement. Very long. It


could be amended in your sticker. That seems to be a pragmatic resting


place for the moment. That's not leaving the EU properly, some would


say. In legal terms, it is leaving the EU. It provides us with a


sensible kind of staging post on the road to Brexit. Remember the


discussions around devolution in the last 20 years. People say it's a


process, not an event. We need to think about Brexit in the same


terms. Good to talk to you. Thank you very much. By common consent,


the campaign fought by Labour took the Conservatives by surprise if


it's short messaging and ability to give voters. The campaign was led by


the First Minister Carwyn Jones for Labour. The fact we had a good


manifesto, good Welsh Labour manifesto. We listen to people and


campaigned hard. Jeremy Corbyn worked hard. Tremendous energy. He


listened to people and spoke to people. Thirdly, Theresa May's


failure. She booked the campaign from personality and that failed.


Where next for Welsh Labour? Labour across the UK, also. Joining me is


the former Secretary of State for Wales and former secretary of state


for Ireland. Did you get a Jeremy Corbyn wrong? Did you underestimate


him? Yes, I didn't think the results


would be anything like as good as it was. Who didn't get the -- you


didn't get this impression from the doorstep. Labour voters saying they


would not vote for him. All the Crosswell. -- all Crosswell 's men.


You have to hand it. He kept going and had a clarity of message that


gave hope to people, not just young people, that's been evident. People


voting where they've never voted before. Also, we won the 30-44 year


age group are massively. What was that don't do? Friends worried about


their children. Not just massive shouldn't get. -- pervert is


worried. Lack of decent opportunities, lack of decent


housing and job opportunities. -- parents are worried. There was no


sense of hope and change. These apologies they have been -- these


policies they have been presumed to work. Lots of your colleagues said


that this campaign has nothing to do with Jeremy Corbyn and all to do


with Carwyn Jones and Welsh Labour. The result is down to Jeremy carbon


-- scratch bag or Carwyn Jones. The Welsh Labour brand that Karen Jones


and his colleagues have cemented in Wales, not too bad, not good but not


as bad as might been expected, there is a distinct Welsh Labour brand


that is different from Scottish Labour. That is a credit to Carwyn.


There was a Jeremy Corbyn effect. That's mobilised the groups and at


you enthusiasm. The question is that the Tories did pretty well and well.


They lost seats to us but their share of the vote was very high. In


Neath, 9004. That's enormous, historically. -- 9000 bouts. We


can't be complacent about the next stage. Winning the centre ground,


especially in England. We held up in the sure seats under Tony Blair. We


have to be able to Windows back. -- we held Pembrokeshire seats. Lots of


critical things have been said by Labour people, not least in Welsh


Labour, Abbott Jeremy Corbyn. Can we believe now that people say they are


behind him. Should people take this at face value? Jeremy has confounded


everybody. Including, I suspect, himself. I don't think they expected


this result. I know they didn't. Many of his advisers. He did


confound everybody, including myself. You have to hand it to him


on that and well behind you. I hope there will be a mode of two-way


coming together in the body. He and his colleagues around eyes, John


McDonnell, will openly embrace those that have been critical. Those who


have been critical have not done it for nothing, they had fundamental


concerns about what they heard on the doorstep from Labour photos.


They are on the opposition hung bench. There are no talks with the


DUP. This is a part of the world you know very well. -- there are talks


with the GP. You have the same concerns as John Major? He's


absolutely right. The interview he gave to the BBC was masterly. He put


his finger on all the key points. If you want to be an honest broker,


I've been that honest broker, I had to perform a bond of trust with Ian


Paisley and Gerry Adams. They never talked each other. They have to


trust me that what the other promises in exchange with the other


promises, that was true. They had to trust me. If you are dependent for


your life as the Prime Minister,, which Theresa May will be if she


does this deal, Andrew Secretary of State, how will they feel, the other


parties, not just Sinn Fein but the other parties have expressed the


same criticism, but at stake is something much more reporting than


the survival of a Conservative Government. It is peace in Northern


Ireland and the Good Friday Agreement. It's an incredible thing


to say. To say that ineffective Theresa May pursues this strategy


the prospect of restoring peace -- maintaining peace, the prospect


close to zero. Sinn Fein may take the view that if this deal is done,


better for them to get into Stormont, even on a lower threshold,


and avoid directive. Direct rule, the kind I had dented when I stepped


down having negotiated the deal with McGuinness and Paisley coming into


power, with the DUP: the shots and keeping the Conservative Government


afloat is not an attractive Government. I'm not saying it will


sabotage Stormont but it makes the whole process immeasurably


difficult. There is one other elephant in the. The border. One


positive thing is it will encourage a soft water. That's what DUP one.


That would mean Theresa May will be pushed even further to do a


cross-party agreement and have a soft departure from the European


Union rather than a hard departure and follow current Joneses -- Carwyn


Jones's leads in staying in the single market. What is the prospect


of a Government made up of the Conservative and the GP lasting?


What is your sense of this stability that is likely facing the challenges


Brexit? The pressure on the Government is going to be immense.


Can it last? You need to win a two thirds majority to call an election,


and this Theresa May or her successor decides they want to go


for Wand. -- unless Theresa May. On balance, although we are in


uncharted retreat, I've never encountered it before, on balance,


they will stick at. -- in unchartered territory. We don't have


a majority, even with the other parties. That's what we need under


the fixed to Parliament legislation to get an election. It's going to be


very volatile. The Government will find it difficult to get legislation


through both houses. Including Brexit legislation. Including Brexit


legislation. Unless they are conciliatory. A lot of their


policies, elderly care policy, which is definitely -- desperately we --


needed. These things are reported. I don't think they will happen. It


will be difficult and unstable. I don't know what the effect is on the


economy. Could be negative. One area of assessors is the powerful role of


social media. One of the factors that is attributed to Labour's wins


is social media. Social media expert Herman Reynolds has taken a look at


the role that on the networking has played in shaping the result of this


election. -- Helen Reynolds. We've been talking since at least


2010 about the social media election. When young people start to


use on their networks to make their voices heard and change a visit. It


doesn't happen in 2010 or even 2015 but last week it started to happen


big-time. Young people actively campaigns online and turned out to


vote in huge numbers. They produced a result nobody expected. So why now


and what is it mean? Firstly, citizens and especially young people


have learned to use social media to unite and campaign. In the past,


people used social media to talk to friends and consume news in a


passive kind of way. Second, if social media was the winner in this


election, newspapers were the losers. They have fewer readers and


less relevance to younger voters. In the past, newspapers could define


the issues people talk about and select preferences. Now, it seems


they are losing their grip on the electorate and social media is


filling the void. Thirdly, you can do things with social media you


can't do with traditional media. You can be direct, funny, and motion.


That's more of emotional content gets full out in traditional media.


While leaving the Conservative campaign on it back foot, why did


the Labour campaign use it? Most of the campaigns and social media by


the Conservative Party was about to mobilising Labour politicians rather


than mobilising support. By contrast, Labour tried to get people


and involved and getting people to vote. Jeremy Corbyn was everywhere.


He was chatting to the rapper JME. He was supported by modern


celebrities online. By contrast, Theresa May did a additional media


broadcaster media session. She looked particularly uncomfortable


when Jeremy Corbyn crashed it. It was often inspiring and sometimes it


was moving, the content that was shed. When people have an emotional


response to the guide material, they are more likely to share that. -- to


the material. It is more a organic when you see something that has been


shared by a friend. Whichever way you should I whichever way you slice


it, the social media genie is out of the bottle. Politicians are going to


have to start taking this more seriously. I am joined by the


Guardian social media editor. Also associate editor of the mirror. Was


it really a sharp edge for Labour in this campaign? The difference


between Labour and the Conservatives is that Labour managed to capture


the years in the way that the Conservatives did not. There was an


amazing to read that pointed out the Conservatives spent all the money on


Facebook advertising but Labour were getting memes made for them for


free. All the smart, young exciting teams and older young adults were


making all this stuff for free for Labour. Maybe people want to say


that this was brilliant strategic thinking by Labour, this is perhaps


wrong, perhaps they were just benefiting from stuff made for them


for free. Labour also cottoned on to it very quickly and encouraged it in


a way that I think the Conservatives would struggle to because I think


the Conservatives are seen as and older part. Labour this time did it


as a strategy. They knew two things would possibly go and a favour. One


is the broadcasters coming in, equal representation, et al. People could


see Jeremy Corbyn uncut rather than seeing him in the odd news item. It


was part of their deliberate strategy from the beginning. Whilst


the Conservatives were seen to be dad dancing. Labour used to people


who are on it all the time. There was nothing forced about it. It came


across that way. An old-fashioned terracing, you


knock the door and you don't know if the person is very different for


you. There is an effort to convert. Does social media activity convert


doesn't just cemented loyalties that already exist? And the Conservatives


tried to do it negatively to scare people off and Jeremy Corbyn,


painting him as a terrorist sympathiser when he was not a


pacifist, it went both ways. Labour was far more positive, and it was to


try and enthuse and get people to go out and vote, and vote, added


illegally targeted young people, who in the past had not voted, Jeremy


Corbyn said from the beginning there were going to get them developed. I


didn't believe him but he achieved it. He spoke to them on their level,


that is a big part of it. There is a condition with politicians to not


take young people seriously because they do not vote. This time Jeremy


Corbyn was like, no, I going to listen to them. He did that to


things like, I thought the unilateral big issue collaboration


was spectacular, they had the Big Issue which is a very well-respected


magazine across the country, and Facebook page which is not as


respected, but has a huge UK following. That was genius, in my


mind. We had the best of both worlds. Was there an unfair


reference to the Theresa May experience with Robert testing? That


was an attempt on a very big platform, she was taking questions


which were coming through from people live, that was part of the


social media strategy, and that was not a attack. It was slightly unfair


and we don't want to be in an avalanche position where we have one


form of campaign and then all campaigning changes. You are on


Facebook, people will watch it, and it was a very big viewing figures


for that. But nevertheless if you can get celebrities involved, that


helps. If you can get grime artists and so one, you will go to another


area. That was incredible, the whole grime for Corbyn thing, it was a


kind of movement that is such a joy to see in politics and especially


from young people. The press reference, we saw an incredible


aggressive campaign from the Mail and the Son against Jeremy Corbyn.


When you look at the results, is it therefore too soon for us to save


big conclusions about whether the press in some forms has had its day


in terms of swinging millions of votes? I don't think so but it was a


huge defeat for the tabloids who threw the kitchen sink to Jeremy


Corbyn, smear after smear, Theresa May was praised as the great leader.


They did not get a result they expected. Newspapers are still very


powerful, broadcasting is still very powerful, but people now can go for


the information they want, where they want, there are far more


voices, and I think that is a good thing in a democracy. Even the fact


that candidates and MPs themselves can have a website, beyond Facebook


and Twitter, you make it directly, rather than have to go through the


prism of a distorting paper or TV, radio, and would not write the media


off, but we in papers except now that people get their information


elsewhere. The crippled thing in Wales is when you think of the fact


that people have had far less of a choice in terms of the Welsh folk is


the media and they can use, the social media prevention as a


completely new dimension. This is what I am hoping will come out of


this new media age, they will be more stuff for Welsh people online


at least. We have not got as vibrant a scene Scotland at the moment, but


there is fertile ground and this has been proven and Wales is


traditionally, a labour heartland, there is no reason why this kind of


energy fork Jeremy Corbyn could not translate into some kind of energy


for Welsh media. That might be a bridge too far, I don't know. You


make a point about Welsh Labour, in some of its traditional heartlands


in Wales, but all Welsh parties really could be looking at this kind


of provision in a completely new way. The final point to you both,


will it change the nature of campaigning? Laissez beget another


election within the next year, if that happens, I'll be likely to see


another step change in the way people use social media in


campaigning turns? I think we will. The other parties will look where it


worked for Labour, where it worked for Donald Trump in the states,


almost worked for the SNP in Scotland in 2014 in that referendum.


It won't mean that you don't have to go knocking on doors and put


leaflets out, you must only meetings and be on TV and radio and get stuck


in papers, but social media, the opportunities are absolutely


endless. Final thought. I think it will change, but be interesting to


see if it will go well for the Conservatives in the future may be


for any other party that is traditionally seen as a little bit


older. That is the thing that I think is key, a stepping Labour has


that young bass and they have that advantage, the Disney to use it.


Thank you both very much. That is all we have time for tonight. You


can get in touch with ours to discuss anything we have discussed,


go to our website. You can also follow us on social media where the


discussion continues. We will be back next week. Thank you for


watching. Have a very good bike. -- good night.


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