14/06/2017 The Wales Report

Tonight on The Wales Report, we are at Westminster in a turbulent week

politics, just six weeks after the election that produced a hung

parliament. Trees May and the Conservatives are telling power,

just, but what does the outcome mean for the biggest issue facing us all,

the Brexit process and its impact on jobs and the economy in Wales? Stay

weathers for The Wales Report. -- stay with ours. Good evening. And

welcome to Westminster for this edition of The Wales Report. Forget

all that talk of strong and stable, this week we are considering the

aftermath of the hung parliament and uncertainty that it brings. A

minority Conservative Government probably sustained by the Democratic

Unionists with the all poor to Brexit pox due to start next week.

Tonight we will be considering the challenges for Wales, is public

services and other matters as they are defined here in Cardiff Bay. You

can get involved and social media. In a moment, I will be talking to

the former Conservative Secretary of State, Stephen Crabb. But first my

college reminds us how we got to this rather unexpected point.

Just before ten o'clock, I was handed the exit poll, and to be

honest null others where quite expecting this. There we are,

Conservatives the largest party, that is the poll, and we have the

detail. What followed as the results came in was ten hours of high

political drama. But the impact of that night the last far longer. So

what happens next? Six long days on, is it all up for grabs again? And

the policies, manifesto commitments and above all Brexit and away we the

European Union. I think in many respects some of the discussion

around, not icy soft and hard Brexit, but a different model of

leaving the EU whilst retaining a foothold in the single market would

likely be on the agenda now, and we know that something that Carwyn

Jones has articulated clearly in the white paper and has argued for in

terms of the best interest of Wales. The downside is we know the balance

of power lies more firmly with Northern Ireland, particularly

through the DUPed involvement in Government and still with the SNP in

Scotland, because despite having lost seats they remain a big group

of MPs with a very strong voice in Westminster. Both Labour and Plaid

Cymru of any say that the relationship between Wales and

Westminster has the change. Last year but we didn't know was what

kind of Brexit we wanted. What is quite clear now after this election

is that people do not want the kind of hard Brexit that Theresa May was

suggesting before last Thursday. Theresa make all the election for a

strengthened hand in Brexit. She has come out of the process with a

weakened hand from her perspective. But it does mean now that Wales has

an opportunity to make sure that our voice is heard and on the agenda, so

Plaid Cymru wants to see a four nation 's cross-party approach to

Brexit negotiations and we would like to see a delay in the beginning

of these negotiations so that all parties can have an input. Sony

pick-up is my daughter is at the helm, but strong and stable is

unlikely to be one of Theresa make parred races after that campaign.

But her critics accusing her of trying to form her very own

coalition of chaos. The Conservatives in Wales are calling

for change. When we look at the results, we can be proud of what we

achieved in the overall share of the vote. But sadly no prizes for coming

second in the selection and we lost three excellent parliamentarians and

our candidates in our targets is well unfortunately not winning.

Despite getting swings of 12%. I personally believe in the second

decade of the 21st century we need a more distinct Welsh brand that can

promote Web principles and values while using the strength of the

United Kingdom as a springboard into elections and well. One thing we

have learned of the past year is never perfect, expect the

unexpected. But it is there to protect one thing. With a minority

Government, Brexit, potential leadership challenges and unforeseen

events, this Government is in for a bumpy ride.

I am joined now by the former city of state for Wales am a former

Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, Stephen Crabb. By find

joining us. What went wrong with Conservative campaign? With the

benefit of hindsight, there was a lot wrong with the campaign. Some of

those things I personally highlighted during it with the party

chairman. But other things as well, like the impact of the social media

campaign which was really something we were not prepared for as a party,

the impact it had with younger voters, clearly with the benefit of

eyesight we need to do some analysis and understand how that is changing

politics and. Does Andrew Hartley Davies have a point that the

Conservative Party in Wales does not have the kind of specific clearly

defined Welsh identity that it needs? I disagree with Andrew on

that. Two years ago we had an election when the best result in

Wales for Welsh Conservatives since 1983. We had that distinct Welsh

voice and fought a very unified campaign between Wales and the UK,

and we did very well as a result. We don't need to pick over everything

that went wrong, but they were problems with the Bell's campaign,

the slight disagreement at times with the Secretary of State and the

leader of the worst Conservatives in the Assembly, that did not help.

Overall the fact is it worked against as in Wales as the and the

UK. We do not see the Labour surge coming. We did it we chat with

attractive policies for younger working families, particularly

working families who have not seen a real wage increase for maybe eight

or nine years. That is where we need to look at, not the issues of

cultural identity. Having Barwell lost his seat, he is not Theresa

Mayed chief of staff. He said on Thursday night before he was

appointed to this new post. Teachers are coming up and saying that we're

not realising the position we been, public services, you are not given

any kind of message that I want to hear. Was that you're experiencing

any part of Wales. Two days before polling day on the Tuesday, in

Milford Haven, a woman I spoke to Ronnie Dawson who was a nurse told

the she liked me and did a great job, and she said she could not vote

for me, and I said why not, she said because she cut to the nursing

bursaries. We really did you how a more closely to the needs of the

public sector in Wales and across the UK and clearly the seven years

of wage restraint has kept a limit on wage growth for people in the

public sector, we need to be looking at that. It is about time people

across different sectors had a wage increase. Based on her track record,

do you think the Prime Minister is the right person to listen? Can she

listen? But she sure that she is able? One of my frustrated during

the campaign was that I didn't feel the country was seeing the full true

Theresa May. All the reasons why in the party flopped around her as the

new leader, one country responded excitedly well to her when she

became Prime Minister a year ago, we lost some of that flavoured chewing

the election campaign. I wonder that the campaign buttons are up and we

didn't get to see that range of qualities and skills which I think

mean that she is the very best person to lead the Government, take

us forward and for all of the challenges ahead with not having an

overall majority, I still think that she had got every possible chance of

taking us the full distance, but it will be bumpy. Not least if she does

from a deal with the DUP, we have had people like John Major who is

very experienced in Northern Ireland saying he has great concerns about

this. Do you share those concerns with Mac there are real concerns. We

are in a difficult period with Northern Irish politics. On top of

that, in the challenge with Brexit and the Irish question, so clearly

there are concerns that need to get Ed, but equally there are

politicians like Lord Trimble who is at the very heart of the peace

process who has said that a deal with the DUP is not necessarily a

negative barrier to further progress in not an island. We should not get

too hung up. If Labour Party had fallen short of being the overall

majority, they would be talking up to the DUP. They have done in the

past. Previously believers have restarted Ulster Unionist. That is

what you do when you're out in a hung parliament situation. Britain

needs a Government. I don't think there is any appetite for an

election straightaway. What is the upturn of? You get on with the

business of Government. The request of the peace process in Northern

Ireland, John Major referred to it. The other question is the attitude

of the DUP on some social issues in terms of women's rights, very

serious issues which people have what many years to achieve. I do

come trouble with that relationship? And comfortably the kind of values

that the DUP who -- DUP espouses? If there is any question on the social

issues on the table for discussion, as part of any governing

arrangement, myself and a great many others would be saying no, close

this off, this is not healthy for the national interest. We don't want

to be doing that. But they have got their different values, we need to

respect that, there is a different political culture in Northern

Ireland. The Labour Party in Northern Ireland held an identical

view on abortion and the DUP, so we have got to respect the fact that

Northern Ireland is a bit different. But you say that would affect

Theresa May's thinking? We're not putting that up for discussion. We

are strengthening equalities legislation. If there is any with

that that will be revisited as part of the rate of the DUP, myself and a

lot of others would be saying, Theresa, commerce. That is a very

clear message. This talk about the other big issue that overshadowed

everything, Brexit. Talks due to start the week. Very clear noises

coming from the Treasury that the Chancellor would like to see a

refocusing on the economy, jobs, a different kind of Brexit outcome to

that was envisaged by many of your colleagues before. Can you give is

your sense of where that pose beginning and should people be

reassured by the fact that there are people speaking out about

cross-party consensus? Be different place? We are in a different place,

and that is partly because of the result of the election. The

Conservative Party on its own is not the vehicle to deliver Brexit. We

need to reach out and work with other parties. When it comes to

Brexit, not just relying on DUP. I personally believe and leave others

believe that we need to be reaching out across the divide in the chamber

to the official opposition and trying to forge as much consensus as

possible. What I would like to see as you've heard it from William

Hague and others that that consensus can come together around a vision of

Brexit that puts jobs and economic security at its heart. Rather than

discussions for example about the need to have the hardest possible

line on immigration control, for example. How would that consensus be

achieved in a special commission, a special committee? How do you arrive

at that consensus? There are different options. William Hague has

put up forward one idea of having a commission that brings in business

leaders, trade unions. I think that is worth looking at. I don't like

the word commission, but clearly the essence of that must be right. There

must be a way that we can forge more national unity around Brexit. You

are very clear about that direction. And I just picked you up on the

freedom of movement, immigration question? Lots of your colleagues at

had been very clear and said the top priority is still to control freedom

of movement, edit, immigration is the top concern for them. It isn't

for you? I speak very personally. I not somebody who lies awake at night

worrying about the overall levels of immigration into this country. If

you look at the population of Britain, it is changing and we need

more workers coming in, not just skills but right across every

business sector. I do recognise that freedom of movement in its current

form, where Britain effectively has no ability to run its own

immigration policy, that will need to change. But what I would be

saying to colleagues in Government as let's not get hung up on the

purity of that issue. If it means we're going to sacrifice our

business competitiveness and create more jobs and our economy. That is

the most important thing for me. Wales needs more jobs and we need to

become a more prosperous nation. Let's not do things that and

economic terms. A final indication on the shape of

the deal. Quite a view of your colleagues are saying, this notion

of being part of the customs union, if there is more flexibility of our

freedom of movement, might offer a compromise which most people could

come around and could agree about. Does that make sense to you? Is that

the kind of every other could attract majority support? That is

the kind of arrangement that could be looked at. It could be an interim

arrangement. Perhaps a longer interim arrangement. Very long. It

could be amended in your sticker. That seems to be a pragmatic resting

place for the moment. That's not leaving the EU properly, some would

say. In legal terms, it is leaving the EU. It provides us with a

sensible kind of staging post on the road to Brexit. Remember the

discussions around devolution in the last 20 years. People say it's a

process, not an event. We need to think about Brexit in the same

terms. Good to talk to you. Thank you very much. By common consent,

the campaign fought by Labour took the Conservatives by surprise if

it's short messaging and ability to give voters. The campaign was led by

the First Minister Carwyn Jones for Labour. The fact we had a good

manifesto, good Welsh Labour manifesto. We listen to people and

campaigned hard. Jeremy Corbyn worked hard. Tremendous energy. He

listened to people and spoke to people. Thirdly, Theresa May's

failure. She booked the campaign from personality and that failed.

Where next for Welsh Labour? Labour across the UK, also. Joining me is

the former Secretary of State for Wales and former secretary of state

for Ireland. Did you get a Jeremy Corbyn wrong? Did you underestimate

him? Yes, I didn't think the results

would be anything like as good as it was. Who didn't get the -- you

didn't get this impression from the doorstep. Labour voters saying they

would not vote for him. All the Crosswell. -- all Crosswell 's men.

You have to hand it. He kept going and had a clarity of message that

gave hope to people, not just young people, that's been evident. People

voting where they've never voted before. Also, we won the 30-44 year

age group are massively. What was that don't do? Friends worried about

their children. Not just massive shouldn't get. -- pervert is

worried. Lack of decent opportunities, lack of decent

housing and job opportunities. -- parents are worried. There was no

sense of hope and change. These apologies they have been -- these

policies they have been presumed to work. Lots of your colleagues said

that this campaign has nothing to do with Jeremy Corbyn and all to do

with Carwyn Jones and Welsh Labour. The result is down to Jeremy carbon

-- scratch bag or Carwyn Jones. The Welsh Labour brand that Karen Jones

and his colleagues have cemented in Wales, not too bad, not good but not

as bad as might been expected, there is a distinct Welsh Labour brand

that is different from Scottish Labour. That is a credit to Carwyn.

There was a Jeremy Corbyn effect. That's mobilised the groups and at

you enthusiasm. The question is that the Tories did pretty well and well.

They lost seats to us but their share of the vote was very high. In

Neath, 9004. That's enormous, historically. -- 9000 bouts. We

can't be complacent about the next stage. Winning the centre ground,

especially in England. We held up in the sure seats under Tony Blair. We

have to be able to Windows back. -- we held Pembrokeshire seats. Lots of

critical things have been said by Labour people, not least in Welsh

Labour, Abbott Jeremy Corbyn. Can we believe now that people say they are

behind him. Should people take this at face value? Jeremy has confounded

everybody. Including, I suspect, himself. I don't think they expected

this result. I know they didn't. Many of his advisers. He did

confound everybody, including myself. You have to hand it to him

on that and well behind you. I hope there will be a mode of two-way

coming together in the body. He and his colleagues around eyes, John

McDonnell, will openly embrace those that have been critical. Those who

have been critical have not done it for nothing, they had fundamental

concerns about what they heard on the doorstep from Labour photos.

They are on the opposition hung bench. There are no talks with the

DUP. This is a part of the world you know very well. -- there are talks

with the GP. You have the same concerns as John Major? He's

absolutely right. The interview he gave to the BBC was masterly. He put

his finger on all the key points. If you want to be an honest broker,

I've been that honest broker, I had to perform a bond of trust with Ian

Paisley and Gerry Adams. They never talked each other. They have to

trust me that what the other promises in exchange with the other

promises, that was true. They had to trust me. If you are dependent for

your life as the Prime Minister,, which Theresa May will be if she

does this deal, Andrew Secretary of State, how will they feel, the other

parties, not just Sinn Fein but the other parties have expressed the

same criticism, but at stake is something much more reporting than

the survival of a Conservative Government. It is peace in Northern

Ireland and the Good Friday Agreement. It's an incredible thing

to say. To say that ineffective Theresa May pursues this strategy

the prospect of restoring peace -- maintaining peace, the prospect

close to zero. Sinn Fein may take the view that if this deal is done,

better for them to get into Stormont, even on a lower threshold,

and avoid directive. Direct rule, the kind I had dented when I stepped

down having negotiated the deal with McGuinness and Paisley coming into

power, with the DUP: the shots and keeping the Conservative Government

afloat is not an attractive Government. I'm not saying it will

sabotage Stormont but it makes the whole process immeasurably

difficult. There is one other elephant in the. The border. One

positive thing is it will encourage a soft water. That's what DUP one.

That would mean Theresa May will be pushed even further to do a

cross-party agreement and have a soft departure from the European

Union rather than a hard departure and follow current Joneses -- Carwyn

Jones's leads in staying in the single market. What is the prospect

of a Government made up of the Conservative and the GP lasting?

What is your sense of this stability that is likely facing the challenges

Brexit? The pressure on the Government is going to be immense.

Can it last? You need to win a two thirds majority to call an election,

and this Theresa May or her successor decides they want to go

for Wand. -- unless Theresa May. On balance, although we are in

uncharted retreat, I've never encountered it before, on balance,

they will stick at. -- in unchartered territory. We don't have

a majority, even with the other parties. That's what we need under

the fixed to Parliament legislation to get an election. It's going to be

very volatile. The Government will find it difficult to get legislation

through both houses. Including Brexit legislation. Including Brexit

legislation. Unless they are conciliatory. A lot of their

policies, elderly care policy, which is definitely -- desperately we --

needed. These things are reported. I don't think they will happen. It

will be difficult and unstable. I don't know what the effect is on the

economy. Could be negative. One area of assessors is the powerful role of

social media. One of the factors that is attributed to Labour's wins

is social media. Social media expert Herman Reynolds has taken a look at

the role that on the networking has played in shaping the result of this

election. -- Helen Reynolds. We've been talking since at least

2010 about the social media election. When young people start to

use on their networks to make their voices heard and change a visit. It

doesn't happen in 2010 or even 2015 but last week it started to happen

big-time. Young people actively campaigns online and turned out to

vote in huge numbers. They produced a result nobody expected. So why now

and what is it mean? Firstly, citizens and especially young people

have learned to use social media to unite and campaign. In the past,

people used social media to talk to friends and consume news in a

passive kind of way. Second, if social media was the winner in this

election, newspapers were the losers. They have fewer readers and

less relevance to younger voters. In the past, newspapers could define

the issues people talk about and select preferences. Now, it seems

they are losing their grip on the electorate and social media is

filling the void. Thirdly, you can do things with social media you

can't do with traditional media. You can be direct, funny, and motion.

That's more of emotional content gets full out in traditional media.

While leaving the Conservative campaign on it back foot, why did

the Labour campaign use it? Most of the campaigns and social media by

the Conservative Party was about to mobilising Labour politicians rather

than mobilising support. By contrast, Labour tried to get people

and involved and getting people to vote. Jeremy Corbyn was everywhere.

He was chatting to the rapper JME. He was supported by modern

celebrities online. By contrast, Theresa May did a additional media

broadcaster media session. She looked particularly uncomfortable

when Jeremy Corbyn crashed it. It was often inspiring and sometimes it

was moving, the content that was shed. When people have an emotional

response to the guide material, they are more likely to share that. -- to

the material. It is more a organic when you see something that has been

shared by a friend. Whichever way you should I whichever way you slice

it, the social media genie is out of the bottle. Politicians are going to

have to start taking this more seriously. I am joined by the

Guardian social media editor. Also associate editor of the mirror. Was

it really a sharp edge for Labour in this campaign? The difference

between Labour and the Conservatives is that Labour managed to capture

the years in the way that the Conservatives did not. There was an

amazing to read that pointed out the Conservatives spent all the money on

Facebook advertising but Labour were getting memes made for them for

free. All the smart, young exciting teams and older young adults were

making all this stuff for free for Labour. Maybe people want to say

that this was brilliant strategic thinking by Labour, this is perhaps

wrong, perhaps they were just benefiting from stuff made for them

for free. Labour also cottoned on to it very quickly and encouraged it in

a way that I think the Conservatives would struggle to because I think

the Conservatives are seen as and older part. Labour this time did it

as a strategy. They knew two things would possibly go and a favour. One

is the broadcasters coming in, equal representation, et al. People could

see Jeremy Corbyn uncut rather than seeing him in the odd news item. It

was part of their deliberate strategy from the beginning. Whilst

the Conservatives were seen to be dad dancing. Labour used to people

who are on it all the time. There was nothing forced about it. It came

across that way. An old-fashioned terracing, you

knock the door and you don't know if the person is very different for

you. There is an effort to convert. Does social media activity convert

doesn't just cemented loyalties that already exist? And the Conservatives

tried to do it negatively to scare people off and Jeremy Corbyn,

painting him as a terrorist sympathiser when he was not a

pacifist, it went both ways. Labour was far more positive, and it was to

try and enthuse and get people to go out and vote, and vote, added

illegally targeted young people, who in the past had not voted, Jeremy

Corbyn said from the beginning there were going to get them developed. I

didn't believe him but he achieved it. He spoke to them on their level,

that is a big part of it. There is a condition with politicians to not

take young people seriously because they do not vote. This time Jeremy

Corbyn was like, no, I going to listen to them. He did that to

things like, I thought the unilateral big issue collaboration

was spectacular, they had the Big Issue which is a very well-respected

magazine across the country, and Facebook page which is not as

respected, but has a huge UK following. That was genius, in my

mind. We had the best of both worlds. Was there an unfair

reference to the Theresa May experience with Robert testing? That

was an attempt on a very big platform, she was taking questions

which were coming through from people live, that was part of the

social media strategy, and that was not a attack. It was slightly unfair

and we don't want to be in an avalanche position where we have one

form of campaign and then all campaigning changes. You are on

Facebook, people will watch it, and it was a very big viewing figures

for that. But nevertheless if you can get celebrities involved, that

helps. If you can get grime artists and so one, you will go to another

area. That was incredible, the whole grime for Corbyn thing, it was a

kind of movement that is such a joy to see in politics and especially

from young people. The press reference, we saw an incredible

aggressive campaign from the Mail and the Son against Jeremy Corbyn.

When you look at the results, is it therefore too soon for us to save

big conclusions about whether the press in some forms has had its day

in terms of swinging millions of votes? I don't think so but it was a

huge defeat for the tabloids who threw the kitchen sink to Jeremy

Corbyn, smear after smear, Theresa May was praised as the great leader.

They did not get a result they expected. Newspapers are still very

powerful, broadcasting is still very powerful, but people now can go for

the information they want, where they want, there are far more

voices, and I think that is a good thing in a democracy. Even the fact

that candidates and MPs themselves can have a website, beyond Facebook

and Twitter, you make it directly, rather than have to go through the

prism of a distorting paper or TV, radio, and would not write the media

off, but we in papers except now that people get their information

elsewhere. The crippled thing in Wales is when you think of the fact

that people have had far less of a choice in terms of the Welsh folk is

the media and they can use, the social media prevention as a

completely new dimension. This is what I am hoping will come out of

this new media age, they will be more stuff for Welsh people online

at least. We have not got as vibrant a scene Scotland at the moment, but

there is fertile ground and this has been proven and Wales is

traditionally, a labour heartland, there is no reason why this kind of

energy fork Jeremy Corbyn could not translate into some kind of energy

for Welsh media. That might be a bridge too far, I don't know. You

make a point about Welsh Labour, in some of its traditional heartlands

in Wales, but all Welsh parties really could be looking at this kind

of provision in a completely new way. The final point to you both,

will it change the nature of campaigning? Laissez beget another

election within the next year, if that happens, I'll be likely to see

another step change in the way people use social media in

campaigning turns? I think we will. The other parties will look where it

worked for Labour, where it worked for Donald Trump in the states,

almost worked for the SNP in Scotland in 2014 in that referendum.

It won't mean that you don't have to go knocking on doors and put

leaflets out, you must only meetings and be on TV and radio and get stuck

in papers, but social media, the opportunities are absolutely

endless. Final thought. I think it will change, but be interesting to

see if it will go well for the Conservatives in the future may be

for any other party that is traditionally seen as a little bit

older. That is the thing that I think is key, a stepping Labour has

that young bass and they have that advantage, the Disney to use it.

Thank you both very much. That is all we have time for tonight. You

can get in touch with ours to discuss anything we have discussed,

go to our website. You can also follow us on social media where the

discussion continues. We will be back next week. Thank you for

watching. Have a very good bike. -- good night.