Part Two EU Referendum - The Result

will know she is just as important. A long-standing campaigner against

the EU in Northamptonshire. 62% to leave, 38% to remain. Laura. I just

asked David Davis and Alex Salmond, I can't help but put this conundrum

to the two of them, and I am sure they wouldn't agree on the answer...

They never agree on anything! If Scottish votes keep the UK in the

EU, what are the implications? David Davis, how would you and your

backbench colleagues feel about that? Iron we are the UK. Virtually

every pro-Leave MP is a strong unionist, so we accept the judgment

of the whole kingdom. Do you think all of your colleagues would accept

that? We have to. You have a referendum. You can hardly say it is

a low turnout. You can hardly say it isn't a representative view of the

people. If it were 30%, that might be different. You can't say that. If

you believe in the kingdom, you must believe in the result. Labour

sources already blaming the SNP for a lacklustre campaign. The

percentages look healthy for Remain, but turnout in Scotland's lower than

the rest of the UK. Our campaign in Scotland was very positive. In the

industrial areas, that we represent, we are doing well. In the areas that

Labour represent in England, they are getting hammered. Labour are

casting about for responsibility and they should look to themselves. As

they fought the campaign we did in Scotland, perhaps they would be in a

happier place. Do you think a referendum is a good

way of conducting political business? For big constitutional

issues only. We don't own the future of the country. So to decide whether

Scotland is independent, that is a decision for the whole people. To

decide to be in or out of the European Union is a decision for the

whole people. It is the only way to decide big constitutional issues,

but if you are proposing a referendum, you should want to

change something. David Cameron fought a referendum basically not

wanting to change anything. That was a fundamental mistake. It is

difficult to fight an inspiring campaign saying follow me, I don't

want to change much. Right, let's go to Wales. We have the latest

results. Blue for Leave. We are joined by James Williams. How is

Wales turning out? From everything I have heard, it seems at this early

stage that Wales is leaning towards Brexit. Merthyr Tydfil has already

gone. Blaenau Gwent has gone. Caerphilly is going. There are some

bright spots for the Remain campaign. There looking at about a

60-40 split in Cardiff, capital city. But Swansea is also going for

Brexit, Denbighshire, Anglesey as well is nip and tuck. At the moment,

indications are that Wales is heading for Brexit, but it is early

days. You talk about Cardiff, where there are large numbers of voters.

If you look at it in terms of the numbers as opposed to the places,

are you saying the numbers of votes cast will favour Leave in Wales?

That is something we will have to keep an eye on. But a significant

number of councils are going towards Brexit. How that totals up at the

end is still to be seen. We have to be careful about voting areas and

counting areas as opposed to the actual numbers. One senior Labour

figure has contacted me to say they think it is going to be a Leave win.

One figure, very early in the night, but a senior figure has said they

believe Leave will win. We have been talking about London a lot. In

London good for Remain, 1.9 million votes that. There are many more

votes in Outer London, which Leave sources believe looks good for them.

A result from Bury, voting to leave. The Leave vote is 54474.

Peter Henley joins us now from Southampton. We have not heard

anything from the South. Do you have news of what might happen? If Remain

thought the South was coming to their rescue, I don't think that is

going to happen. Everyone is talking about the Leave vote being ahead of

what people expected. In Portsmouth, where it was thought to be 50-50,

they are talking about more 57% Leave. And in Southampton, they are

supposedly going for Leave 60-40. The counts are carrying on and we

are expect in the result in an hour. In Salisbury, they are suggesting

Leave has done well. It is fraying peoples nerves. In Oxford, there was

an incident where one of the Labour councillors was arrested. There are

a lot of votes in the south-east of England, 6.5 million voters. It

seems to be going towards Leave at the moment. Alex Salmond tells me

the voting has now gone in favour of a Leave victory. In the spread

betting for the first time, Leave are now favourite. Not overwhelming,

but now favourite. Many people watching will be very unhappy that

we are talking about betting, Presbyterians. The Presbyterians are

enthusiastic gamblers. Let's talk to serve Vince Cable, senior Lib Dem.

Your response at this early stage of the night, particularly to what is

happening in Wales? Well, I can't improve on your studio analysis. But

it does look increasingly as if Leave are head. We can begin to

think about the political and economic implications of that. There

is a lot of polarisation. Scotland is in a very different position.

There are nationalist areas in Northern Ireland. But the Labour

voting areas, their support has crumbled badly. I suspect the spread

betters know what they are doing. You think it is more to do with the

Labour vote not coming out than the Tory campaign scaring people off? I

had my reservations about some of the techniques that were being used.

I am clearly in favour of remain. I think the techniques didn't work.

The politics of fear were used in the general election against people

like me. They were used in Scotland before that and I was an assumption

that it might work here. Other factors have kicked in. People in

highly deprived areas of the north-east have expressed their

frustration. How do you think the Remain camp will have to deal with

this if it does emerge as a voter Leave? Well, some concrete issues

have emerged. Immigration is the most obvious one. The question which

David Cameron wasn't able to deal with in his renegotiation, which is

a brake to provide some kind of reassurance that things are

controlled, that issue might have to be reopened. If Remain does squeak

in, other figures may with London, there will be a lot of heart

searching. I suspect that if Remain does win with a majority of 1% or

2%, the authority of the government will be considerably weaker than it

was before the referendum. We are in a period of relatively unstable

government. Let me ask you to reflect on the nature of the

referendum. In an ideal Cameron world, this was never meant to

happen. The Lib Dems were expected to be in government with him and you

would presumably have stopped the referendum going ahead. Was it a

mistake to call it? We certainly argued that it was, for the reasons

that Alex Salmond gave a few moments ago. His analysis was spot on. There

are clearly circumstances in which you need a referendum, when you have

major constitutional change. But this was a way of resolving an

impasse within the Conservative Party. There was a chronic failure

to understand what happens when you just throw the cards in the air and

people'sgrievances find an outlet, whether it has anything to do with

Europe or not. It was very bad judgment and will do David Cameron

enormous harm. In the sense that he will have to leave straightaway if

it is Leave? Well, my former Cabinet colleagues like Ken Clarke said he

will not survive ten seconds if we lose this. Let's assume it is a

Leave win. If his party do persuade him to stay on, his authority is

completely gone. I would have thought any sense of self-respect

would make him want to go. If we are talking about a Leave win, even if

it is a small one, I fear his day is now gone. What do you think the real

response from European leaders would be towards Britain if it is a Leave?

The threats are over. Do you think they would try and woo us back in

with trading deals, or do you think the door is slamming shut? Europe is

governed by legal processes to a significant extent, and they will

play out. Politics forms part of that. I don't think there is any

sense of vindictiveness or anti-British feeling. Nonetheless,

they will be anxious to avoid some kind of contagion. So any sense that

the UK would be rewarded by being given full access to the single

market without paying the costs in terms of accepting free movement or

financial contribution, a Norwegian type outcome, I don't think that is

likely to be on offer. Do you think it could trigger more referendums

around Europe? Some populist politicians in Europe are making

that case. Most people I have spoken to in some of the peripheral

countries like Sweden, they take the view that even if they didn't have a

referendum, they would stay. I don't think there will be rapid

fragmentation. Nonetheless, it would be a severe blow to the European

Union. Their instincts would be to stand firm to make sure Britain is

not rewarded from this. That is what I have worried about all along.

Assuming Leave win, we have potentially entered a prolonged

period of unsettled disputes. The whole problem of translating

European law back into some kind of British alternative is a difficult

process. I have been listening to Alex Salmond's comments about

Scotland. The issues with Scotland are not simply whether they would go

for independence. The problem is that with all the devolved powers,

many of which have a European dimension, if they don't want to

cooperate, what happens? We have potentially entered into an enormous

legal quagmire tasting for years. That is one of the warnings some of

us have been trying to give which have not been heeded by the

government. We are joined by Aaron Banks, who helped fund Nigel

Farage's campaign for Ukip. Mr Farage was going to join us and then

vanished. Do you think you have won? I think we have. We ran our own poll

which came out with 52-48. We can't hear you very well. Can you hear me?

I am hearing you perfectly. Where is your microphone? Anyway, you think

it is in the bag? I think we have a strong result. I always thought

whether we win or lose, we have made the point and I think it is good

news for Europe. They will have to certainly think. What did you make

of what Vince Cable said that if it is Brexit, it promises years of

chaos as they try to unscramble the legal side and enter into trade

negotiations, that it will not be a straightforward deal? As I

understand it, we have two years to renegotiate. I think our partners

will want to come to a sensible deal. It is less complicated than

the politicians say. How much did you give to the campaign? Nearly ?6

million. Why? It is something I believe in. I believe we should

bring democracy back to Parliament. Thank you very much.

I hereby give notice that I have certified the following. The total

number of ballot papers was 37,975. The number of votes in favour of

remaining a member of the EU was 12,569. The number of votes cast in

favour of leaving the EU was 25,385. There were 21 rejected ballot

papers. SHARING

North Warwickshire, 56.9% to leave, 33% Remain. Leave are now on

1,000,460 5000. The winning post still remains 16 million 800,000

odd. I'm joined by John McDonnell, Shadow Chancellor for Labour, MP for

Hayes and Harlington, and Theresa Villiers, the Northern Ireland

Secretary, who has been voting to Leave. You said earlier on that your

instinct was it was going to go to Remain this evening. Do you think

your instinct had deserted you? I would be delighted to be proved

wrong. Obviously, we are not able to predict the result, but my feeling

was, to be confident of a Leave win, I would have expected us to be going

into polling day with a strong lead in the holes, because there is

always a reversion to the status quo. We tried hard to demonstrate

that there is an status quo is the risks of staying in our significant,

but even so you would expect the status quo option to gain support.

This may not have been triggered in this referendum, this traditional

reversion to be status quo. By the looks of some of the results, it may

not have happened, but we obviously will not know that for EQ hours. You

are Northern Ireland Secretary and you said during the thing that there

was no risk to illegal immigration, trading regions and so on. If the UK

leads EU and Northern Ireland being part of the United Kingdom, how can

you possibly not have a border between the two to stop goods going

across as people coming in a cross that border? We have had a common

travel area between the UK and Ireland since the creation of the

Irish state. But we joined the EU together. They have never been

tariffs between us. But now there would be barriers. If you look

around the EU's external borders, thousands of lorries and goods pass

every day without any restrictions. Modern technology means it is

possible to deal with these issues, and it would be manifestly of

interest to both the UK and Ireland that we find a way to do that. After

all, the Irish Ambassador to London himself has been very clear that the

Common travel area isn't affected by a Brexit vote. There is the Northern

Ireland figure, Remain. Northern Ireland is likely to be a Remain

part of Britain. The DUP, of course, were in favour of leaving. The

Nationalists in favour of remaining. John McDonnell is also there. I

should cut to the chase. There has been a lot of talk about whether

Labour was pulling its weight in this campaign, and that, in some

senses, you may have lost a crucial part of this working-class vote, you

have been disaffected and gone to Leave, and that you have failed

somehow to tap into that. I have toured around the country and the

result coming out now, to be frank, it exactly as I thought. I thought

it would be very close. It is a disaffected vote, disaffected with

Westminster politics, politics overall. Some of it is Labour

supporters, too, and we have done our best to try and turn it round,

but it's been tough. It gets to feel like a by-election at the moment,

where people's grievances are being aired as well. People are concerned

about how they are being treated with austerity and wages being

frozen for the past seven years. People's grievances are coming out

and we have to start listening. London is thought to be one place

where the Remain cab will do well. Here is Lambeth in south London.

30,340 two Leave. 111 584 to Remain. 21 - 79. Let's go to Exeter in the

West Country, in Devon. That is a Remain vote again, 55% to Remain,

45% to Leave. We will check on how sterling is doing. What's happened

in the markets? It's still going down quite rapidly. It is down now

at around $1 40. It got as high as $1 50 when there was a lot of

confidence in the markets that Remain were going to win. There is

another important indicator will the FTSE futures, which is a judgment on

where the FTSE 100 will open when it opened in London late on this

morning, and that is down 5%. Both those indicators, these percentages

sound small, but those are huge moves in the markets, the type of

moves, possibly for the pound, not seen before, certainly not since the

2008 crisis, and also for the FTSE 100. A 5% fall in the market would

be a significant event and would really create a sense, I think, at

that stage, that the markets were in a major sell-off territory, and I

think that the Bank of England now and others must be considering, if

there is a Leave votes, and we are a long way from knowing that I'm a bad

there may have to be some form of announcement made in the morning. To

make one point clear, at the moment in sterling, the market is very thin

on volumes. There are not actually many traders trading the ground at

the moment, so the volatility is marked. People moving can make

volatile spikes. So I would put that caveat in. Certainly, the volatility

is huge. And the City is open all night? The trade 24 hours a day all

around the world. On the Asian markets, the count is down 5%, so

between five and 6%. These include a moves between Monday's trading,

these are not figures seen since 2008, which does show the level of

market concern, I think, more to do with uncertainty than whether

Britain is in or out of the EU. It isn't political, this issue. It

isn't a judgment on whether Leave or Remain should win. It is about that

uncertainty, how will we trade with the European Union, which is our

biggest market for exports? You're not allowed to talk about sterling,

because shadow chancellors can't discuss it. What about the markets

generally? Are you concerned that what you are hearing? I think some

of the claims on both sides of the campaign were exaggerated about a

recession, but we have always made clear there would be a shock if the

Remain camp didn't win and it was Leave, and that is what we were

expecting. I would expect the Bank of England to intervene in the

morning. We can't comment on sterling, but what we can do is have

a mature approach and say, whatever the outcome, we will negotiate the

best deal we can with regards to our trading partners in Europe, and in

that way we might give some assurances to the market. Glasgow

has come in, the first large city in Scotland to come in and indeed, the

largest in numbers. That is 67% share to Remain, 33% to Leave.

Falkirk also came in, where the cab is being conducted. 43% to Leave,

57% to Remain. -- where the count is being conducted. This is how

Scotland overall is looking. 38% to Leave, 62% to Remain. Jeremy, on

your slide, do you want to show us how things are going? We have got a

kind of swingometer for you later, which we will bring out when the

figures settle down. We are calling it an index for now. It shows the

382 counting areas by size. That is the length of the bar. Crucially, by

the order in which they are arranged in terms of their Euroscepticism.

Over this side, at this end, let's see it, it says most Leave, see how

many there are, and right round at the other end, most Remain. Two

things have happened in the last few minutes. The first thing is, some

very good news to Leave, with the result from Swansea, and here is

why. If I bring Swansea out on our polling index, it is this side of

the centre, so it is on the Remain side. It has come in to Leave, so it

is the first counting area we have seen where you have actually got

glue in a yellow area. Let's see the percentage. -- blue. The winning

side needs the paint the opposing area blue or yellow. That is very

good for Leave, winning in a place where Remain were expecting to win.

A different result from Lambeth. If we go to the most Remain end, a lot

of London and Scotland on that end, for all the reasons discussed.

London and Scotland will likely be the highest votes to Remain. Lambeth

is right there. A lot of photos there, but look at the proportion of

yellow on back bar. That is the margin of the Remain win. That

result is pretty much the first bit of really good news for the Remain

camp tonight, because that is beyond what was expected, even with them on

that far end of the bar. 79% Remain, 21% Leave. If Remain are going to

pull this back, they will do it through building up majorities like

that in dense urban centres. So Lambeth, Remain will be thinking, if

that happens all over London, there are an awful lot of votes coming

their way. We have just at Wandsworth, in south-west London,

including Tooting, where Siddique Khan, the new mail of London, came

from. Those are the raw figures. -- Sadiq Khan. 25% to Leave, 75% to

Remain. I don't know whether that is good news for Remain, whether they

expected to do better in both Lambeth and Wandsworth? Those are

both good results. In both cases, we are looking at figures for Remain

about ten points above what we were expecting, so it's beginning to look

as though London will indeed, even though we were expecting Remain to

do well, may well do even better there. Contrarily, some of the first

results from the north-west, places like St Helens, we are seeing the

Remain side well adrift. We were long talking about this referendum

campaign, about the potential difference between England and

Scotland. We may also be talking about a major difference between

London and the rest of England. At the end of the day, if indeed the UK

does vote to leave, and we are not saying that is what is going to

happen yet by any means, if it does, it will be provincial England that

will have determined the UK's vote. You were talking about turnout in

London. Is that affected these raw figures was to mark as it had the

effect you for? -- have it had the effect you thought? What does seem

to be true is that the increase in turnout in London above what we got

in last year's general election seems to be somewhat less than in

other places in the UK. It is up by about 4% in London. It is up 6%

across the country. At the beginning of the night, we were talking about

very high turnout. That is an exaggeration. But it looks like we

have got a 72% turnout, the first time since 1987 in a UK wide vote

that we have got more than a 70% turnout. The truth is, whoever wins

the referendum, and we still don't know who it will be, it will be very

difficult to argue that they don't have a mandate and that the country

hasn't made a clear decision. Voters have been engaged in this referendum

in a way that frankly recent general elections have failed to interest

them. The percentage isn't a reflection of the numbers, because

they lot of people put their names on the register to vote who were not

there before. Yes, so that we have got 72%, even though 1.7 million

names were added since last September, is an indication of an

even greater democratic success than it otherwise might will be. Barking

and Dagenham, east London, they have voted Leave. 46,000, 20 7000. 62%,

38%. We get the inner Metropolitan core

of London to an area where historically the far right has tone

well and the Remain vote is well adrift of what we expected. So as

Laura suggested it may be parts of the London, maybe the inner core

where there are a lot of young, mobile people, lots living in the

city, etc, once we get out towards London which is more like the rest

of England, maybe Remain will struggle more and more. And just to

remind you, the Leave side is running at 49.3%, and Remain a 50

pin 7. We keep showing these figures of percentages from counting area,

remember, it doesn't actually amount to a row of bean, what matters is

the raw numbers, and Leave is on, here we are at Broadcasting House,

BH as it is lovingly called, saying it is too early to call. Have a look

at the figures projecting there on the front. The yellow for Remain and

Leave. 59.3. It has to do something for it still. It doesn't. I thought

it emerged in some strange way. Any way, there we are, there is

Broadcasting House on the left and the New Broadcasting House on the

right 6789 all bright blue. It is just after 2.30. We ought to get

some news now. Let us have the news right now. Right now.

There's a mixed picture emerging from the first results in Britain's

With only a small fraction of voting areas having declared,

A final result will not be known for several hours.

Here's our political correspondent Eleanor Garnier, and her report

It was the moment polling stations closed. The UK had given its

verdict. And the first result to declare Gibraltar, with a decisive

96% vote in favour of Remain. Not long after, Newcastle, with a narrow

win for Remain. 65,404. A much smaller win than expected.

But in Sunderland, a huge win for Leave, with 61%. Away from the north

of England in Basildon, another big win for Leave.

With another count, with a big turn out, at 74%.

At a Leave campaign party in London, earlier in the night, Ukip leader

remained defensive. Win or lose this battle tonight we will win this war,

we will get our country back, we will get our independence back, and

we will get our borders back. Thank you.

It was a bruising campaign, and some say whether it is Leave or Remain,

politicians need to do more to listen to the country. Whatever the

result of this, there will be lessons that have to be learned by

the Labour Party, but not just on the issue of immigration, a whole

wider set of things for the Labour Party, but also for the Government.

You know, about what people are saying about the state of the

country. It is looking increasingly like turn out will be above 70% for

the first time in a UK-wide contest since 1997. As results continue to

come in remember the referendum isn't decided count by count but

vote by vote. Following the first results,

the pound fell dramatically, although it regained some of those

losses in the last hour. When the New York

Stock Exchange closed, the pound was trading

at just under $1.49. It fell at one point to $1.43

but has since recovered slightly. One currency analyst said

traders "are very jittery". The Italian coastguard says it

rescued around 4,500 migrants Good weather and calm seas have led

to more people risking The charity MSF has been helping

the rescue operation. A woman's body was recovered

from one of the vessels A man has been jailed for life

for plotting a beheading on the streets of London,

inspired by so-called Islamic State, which could have

targeted a poppy seller. 23-year-old Nadir Syed

was arrested in November 2014, One of the world's longest running

civil wars, in Colombia, has been brought to an end

after more The so-called FARC rebels have

signed a deal to lay down their arms following three

years of negotiations. Storms and heavy rain have caused

serious flooding in parts of London Several commuter and Underground

lines in the capital suffered There were more problems this

evening as commuters The UK's population grew by half

a million last year. New figures show it's now just

over 65 million. The Office for National Statistics

says the increase is in line with average population growth

over the last ten years. Welcome back to our coverage here of

a fascinating complex difficult to predict race on the referendum on

Leave and Remain, the figures you saw a moment ago, 2.6 million for

Leave, 2.7 million for Remain but it means nothing at this stage because

we have so much more to come in, we have only had 74 out of 382 counting

areas in. We have a number of things to talk about. What is happening in

Wales, various other things and what is happening in the Labour Party

with John McDonnell. Let us join Emily first. Thank you. I am joined

by Andrew Rawnsley and Isabel Hardman. I have to pull your eyes

away from what is going on on Channel 4 at the moment. I was

watching the markets. Thank goodness for that! This is

tantalisingly close at the moment, what do you think is going on in

Downing Street? I think there is a lot of panic in Downing Street, I

suspect there is a lot of panic in a lot of Labour constituencies in the

north as they see their voter though thought they were in step with

turning away from them and voting out. The weird thing about this, if

turn out is high, if the race is close, it hasn't put people off. No,

you remember a lot of people at the begin of the campaign were saying,

how much do people care, most people about Europe we know a minority of

people care about it passionately but do they care that much? A lot of

prediction turned out to be lower than at a general election. One

thing as you say, we don't know where we are going to be at six

o'clock in the morning but one thing we know is turn out will be higher

than at a general election. And a lot of voters have obviously

thought, this is a very very important moment, in whatever the

result, very important moment, in our country's history and I am going

perform my civic duty. John McDonnell was talking about the

sense of a by-election, as if this was about austerity, as if it wasn't

about Europe, do we not trust the voter to make this about Europe?

What is your sense? I think most of the public meetings that I have gone

to and most of the people I have spoken to seem on the engaged with

the issue, even if it is the issue that Labour politicians like John

McDonnell would like them to be engaged with. People aren't trying

to stick two fingers up to the Government, they are maybe sending

the elite a message about immigration but it is about the

European Union not about the UK Government. I would agree 6789

Although you could say, you could say, it is a by-election about the

establishment, or the elite as the out camp have tended to call them.

Whatever happens even if Remain should edge it, about half of the

country will have listened to every major party leader, except Nigel

Farage about three-quarters of the MPs in the House of Commons and

every professional body you can think of, scientist, to doctor, to

people in the arts world, who have been advising them to vote in and

about half the country will have voted out S And that half of the

country, where it is is important, if as expected London and Scotland

are carrying the Remain vote, what does that tell you about the divide?

If their votes ending up leading to an overall Remain vote that will

cause resentment that there is a planet London and there are is

resentment between parts of England and Scotland, the UK is divided and

this will add to that sense. That would be true if it goes the other

way, Scots who are clearly goingtor, most vote to stay will be resentful

and it may lead to another referendum on independence, we know,

we are clear a lot of London is going to be majority in. London

would have as much right to be resentful back towards England if

the rest of England enforces are saying you are cutting our throats

and your own, so it could go both ways. How many party leaders will

have left their job by the end of this week, do you think? You go

first. The Conservatives have tried hard to make it clear that Cameron

will stay on, to steer the course if there is a Leave vote but we will

have to set out a clear timetable for his departure. I would say

maximum one. I don't think Jeremy Corbyn will disappear this week. If

anybody will say it will be David Cameron. Thank you both very much

indeed. A reminder of how things are going

in the North East. There is the percentage, 50%, 41%. 59 for Leave.

41 for Remain. And... Nice to have the percentages

for, the north-west. 59%, 41% Remain, London so far, let us leave

the figures and see the percentage if we can.

31% Leave. It is running at 69 percent Remain. Hammersmith and

Fulham are in. 70% for Remain and 30 percent for Leave.

Now we are joined by somebody who was Secretary of State for Wales

until recently, until Iain Duncan Smith walked out of cabinet and he

became Secretary of State for work and pension, Steven crab. Thank you

for joining us. Is Wales proving a bit of a disappointment to the

Remain campaign? Well, I mean it is early days and we will see what the

rest of the night holds for us, but I am not purr priced by the early

results we have seen for Wales. I felt for a number of years that the

politics of Wales were being reshaped profoundly, and what you

are seeing in the South Wales valleys and some of the north Wales

Labour seats is the same phenomenon you are seeing in the North East of

England and in some of the other old industrial white working class areas

of England, a large number of voters saying sorry we don't believe the

Labour Party, or the Government, in the way they tell us that Europe and

the European Union is good for us. That is going to be one of the

strong themes of tonight, the way the white working class Britain,

England and Wales haven't trusted the messages that we have been

trying hard to communicate about why staying part of the single market is

so important for their jobs and manufacturing, and for revitalising

the old industrial areas. If at the end of the night, we turn out to

have a Brexit vote, the Chancellor said there will be an emergency

budget. David Cameron said he will carry on, with getting out of the

EU. Do you think both things will happen, will there be an emergency

budget or was that a threat and what people off for voting for Remain It

is too early to speculate what theout come -- outcome will be, we

know it will be very close, clearly there is deep divisions in the

country in terms of the voting patterns. I spent today out of

London in Wales, and when I came to London I didn't share the same

feeling some of my Remain colleagues did who spent the day in London

campaigning and were reporting a strong and positive message. We have

to listen to what the messages are coming from this referendum. It is

too early to speculate on what the outcomes and implications will be in

terms of government actions to respond to what the scenario will

look like tomorrow and the day after, but in terms of the

leadership, I think it is eseven that will that David Cameron stays

on as Prime Minister, he has a clear mandate to be Prime Minister and to

lead a government that provides stable governance for the country.

It is essential he does that. What what your failure to persuade Tory

supporters in Wales to vote remain? And that is part of the picture.

Wales is one of those parts of the UK that Dibley gets more European

money than elsewhere. Large manufacturers have located their

plants there, largely on the back of the European single market, but

clearly people up and down Wales haven't recognised the benefit of

that their own individual lives, and there isn't any kind of emotional

attachment from the people of Wales the European Union. We will spend

the coming weeks and months asking questions about why that is, but

clearly politics in Wales has shifted, it looks a lot more like

than the politics of the rest of England outside London, rather than

Scotland which people were comparing it to just a few years ago. Thank

you very much. John McDonnell, I want to ask you about Labour. Andy

Burnham was a candidate for the leadership and has said the message

to Labour from voters Bolieve should be, we have heard you, we understand

what you are saying, we have got to change. Do you agree with that? Yes.

Well why haven't you been listening? We have been listening, but clearly

the people don't think we have listened enough, and we haven't come

back on those issues they have confronted us on. How would you come

back on immigration? I think we need to look at free movement of labour.

The issues on the doorstep with regards to immigration is at the

feelings of people having their wages undercut, pressure on public

services and a deep feeling of insecurity. What would you propose?

In terms of free movement of labour, I don't think we have got the

message through effectively, we need to protect people from having their

wages undercut so that means changes in employment law. That sort of

employment rights approach is one that we can protect. In terms of

fresh on public services, we have said time and again that the

Government was wrong to scrap the migration fund that was assisting

areas that came under particular pressure, and it does reflect the

austerities measures that the Government have introduced. A lot of

the grievances that have come up with regard to immigration I have to

say are a reflection of what has happened in terms of austerity under

this Government. This Government has cut the NHS, hasn't provided enough

school places, so I think there is a whole debate to be had, and we have

to say yes, we are listening to what people are telling us. It will be

too late, you will be out of the EU anyway. They will be irrelevant.

Whatever happens, we have to have a better relationship with the

European Union, and that has to be negotiated. John Mann is joining us,

you are in favour of leaving the EU. What would you say to Mr McDonnell

about the way Labour have handled the campaign? Labour are somewhat

out of touch, and I'm surprised you are not calling for a Leave victory,

because every single result that has come through was predictable in the

coalfields where there are no results out yet, I predict it will

be 2-1 for Leave. Even in Scotland, Dundee, the Scottish heartland for

the SNP, every party in the Scottish Parliament voting to remain, 40%

voted to leave. Wales is going to vote majority leave, Northern

Ireland is going to vote a majority Leave. It leaves London, but if we

take that Dagenham result, even in London, there is huge disparity. And

Labour voters have decisively voted to leave the European Union. Where

have Labour got it wrong, then? Lets not going to speculation about

whether you are right about all those places, we will have to wait

and see what happens. Where have Labour gone wrong? Labour has gone

wrong by not being in touch with its voters. I have been saying this for

the last 10-year is in relation to immigration and free movement of

labour. I have been saying it in relation to what the offer is to

working class people. It is not something new in this campaign, and

not the only one, but it is a small number have been saying it at the

national level in labour. And you think... What they are offering

young people is zero-hour contracts, agency and work, and people are sick

to death of it, and they have had enough. That is why in my area and

elsewhere, Labour voters are eroding in huge numbers to leave the

European Union. John McDonnell comedy is the key is right? I think

he is right on a number of policy issues, but we have already said we

will scrap zero hours contracts. In terms of insecurity at work, we have

said we will tackle the issue of undermining trade union rights. We

want to have the workforce more involved in presenters company

boards, so all those issues, we used to deal with. Issue for us or its

hat if you look at the shape of the vote tonight, it is those areas that

are not gaining in anyway from the supposedly recovery in the economy,

and have suffered economically in the last decade, that are voting to

Leave. I think yes it is a reflection of what they think about

the European Union not insisting them, but it is also a reflection of

the condemnation of the Government's policies in the last few years, and

there are real grievances out there and we need to get those across.

Theresa de Villiers,? At the moment, as a member of the European Union,

we do not govern our own affairs. It doesn't matter who you vote for in a

devolved administration, you need the control. See you think it is a

constitutional issue, not that people have felt left behind with

static wages, uncertainty about their jobs? People feel a lack of

control over all. They feel not represented by the political elite

as they describe it, but they don't feel represented in Europe either,

so they feel a lack of control over those very bread-and-butter issues

about whether they can get a decent job, wages, a roof over their head

and education for their children. When we have talked to hundreds of

voters around the country, for lots of people it has been a whole

mixture of things, but people have really thought about these issues,

they having gauged, they have thought about the European Union. It

has been about identity, and that is a complex thing. We hear politicians

say allsorts of things, voters have thought deeply about this, many of

them. You can't just miss -- dismiss it and say it is about this or that.

We have got Liverpool in. Let's see the figures. 85,000 leave and

118,000 Remain. That is 42% leave, 58% remain. And the United Kingdom

as a whole, it was there, but it has gone. There we are. This is how

things are looking at the moment, pretty well even, 3.7 million either

side. We have had 103 of 382 of our counting areas in. Islington has

just come in, Jeremy Corbyn's part of the world. 25,000 Leave, 76,000

Remain. So, John Mann, thank you very much for joining us. Let's go

to Jeremy. What have you got for us? I think we will collect some results

and look at the map. We have enough results that we can show you the map

of the UK, and it is worth just taking in what the pattern is here.

So here we see, where remain have come first in a counting area, they

get yellow. Where Leave come first, they get their area coloured blue,

and you see immediately a lot of yellow in Scotland, so if it does go

at the end of the night to remain, Scotland going powerfully from

Remain. I can show you a heat map which displays how powerful the

support for leave is. On this map, to explain, where it is The Dark

Blues, leave had more votes. Where it is light blue, they have softer

support. So you see immediately, Scotland, that situation underlying,

where Leave isn't getting anything like the numbers it is getting

elsewhere, and London as well, you can see just down here in the

south-east how like it is, just here in the centre of London, those

results we have had so far. But had out towards Essex man suddenly the

Blues get darker. And if you look at the whole of the map, and just look

at the amount of dark blueberries in the North particularly, the North of

England, the north-east, that is how we started the night, with some

remarkable results from the north-east. So Leave is packing a

powerful punch a lot of places outside London and Scotland. But

maybe London and Scotland will pull back from Remain. This is our

proportional map, and we show you hear each counting area as a stalk,

and the stalkers coloured in the colour of the side that won. And the

crucial thing is this, the height of the stalk shows you the winning

margin. Here in Scotland, that is Glasgow, the highest torque. You can

see that Remain won there large margin. But if you look down south,

just to remind you of the sheer volume of votes available in London.

That is Lambeth, and other results we have had from London where remain

is winning with powerful results. But elsewhere, come in close if you

can from moment and have a look at this. This is a proportional map.

You are seeing so many of these blue stalks. There are so many places

where leave his winning outside London and Scotland, and actually

the margins of those leave victories are really very powerful, so yes,

there may not be as many voters outside London, but my goodness, the

margins are Leave are making it very difficult to Remain to make up the

ground. Thank you, Jeremy. Castle Point in

Essex, the main Canvey Island, one of the largest proportion of

predominantly English speaking white people in the UK, and expected to go

very much for leave, and this is what they did. 73% leave, 27%

remain. Andrew Sinclair is in Chelmsford, political correspondent

for the Eastern region. Andrew, good evening. Tell us what is happening

in the East as far as you can. We just had that Castle Point results

through, as you joined us. These things have always been seen to be

Euro-sceptic, we have a strong Euro-sceptic feeling in this part of

the world. Douglas Carswell has his seat just down the road, and four

out of the 7 euros MPs had eased of England have been in the Leave camp.

So the expectation was we would always see quite a strong Leave vote

tonight, and indeed that is what we have been seeing. 69% to leave in

Basildon, highs 69%, Rochford 64%. The count behind me at the one

moment they thought that was a good chance that they can go to Leave.

Further afield I'm starting to hear stories coming out of places like

Finland, Great Yarmouth, Ipswich, that Leave could do there as well.

Tim Donovan is in Guildhall. Tim, good evening. London. Is it hacking

it is Forrester remain campaign is concerned? Is it pulling its weight?

Six results out of 33 expected tonight, and there is a pattern

emerging. Big hefty wins for the Remain camp, in Lambeth, Wandsworth,

here in the city itself, and in Hammersmith, in Islington and

Barking and Dagenham, though, has gone to leave. We are trying to get

our head around what we think will emerge as the significant factor

here in London, maybe assist the variations in turnout, and while

Lambeth, the Lambeth victory was seven 9% remain to 21%, it was

alternative 60s of the centre, which is going to be lower than the

turnout we're hearing elsewhere parts of the country, albeit people

telling me that is- that part of the world. The key issue appears to be

from the turnout figures we are getting so far for up it is places

like Richmond, 82% turnout, and we will get that shortly, we are told.

Bexley in the 70s Croydon Simmerling. The turnout is higher in

the London area, and all the polling up to this referendum in London

suggested that gap between remain and leaving London narrowed

dramatically out of London, and that appears to be very much where the

secret or the answer in London will light a night. And turnout effective

tour by weather, people early on were saying this monsoon rain London

has been suffering and the flooding and all the rest of it has brought

the turnout down, and that would affect the Remain raw numbers,

because we keep reminding people it is not to wince where, it is

actually in the end the number of people who vote one way or the

other. It depends on you talk to. The returning officer here were

saying he expected the turnout across London to be seven four, 70

5%, which is very high by London stand. It got into the early 80s

back in 1950. There was a certain amount of disruption first thing

this morning, but only seven polling stations out of those 3700 there are

in London were actually disrupt, very briefly. It is not

automatically clear that the weather has made a difference, and it may

well mean that people being delayed in London as they were in Waterloo

station or whatever, that might have affected the turnout in the vote in

areas outside of London. But it is not being blamed. We have had

Richmond-upon-Thames while you were talking, 31% leave, 69% Remain. A

very high proportion of people with degrees, and apparently people with

degrees tend to vote Remain. Do you agree with that, Theresa Villiers?

Do you have a degree? Ers in Wales to vote remain? That is

what some of the pundits are saying. Do you believe it? Do you believe

this, it is almost the kind of class division that has been established,

isn't it, in the minds of psephologist, people with degrees,

better off, vote Remain. There was, I was in no doubt there is a strong

support for Leave among the working classes, I think they have in many

ways been at the sharp end of the depression of wages which has come

from mass migration from Europe, so they have felt directly some of the

difficulties that come with our EU membership, and I think that is one

of the reasons why many of them... Could Labour have done belter, do

you think, to get them out for their side? I don't know, because they,

the trouble was that in the renegotiation, Europe's leaders were

fundamentally opposed to significant changes to free movement. Once that

decision was made, it is difficult for people to convince, you know,

those who are concerned about immigration it is possible to get

things changed. Theresa Villiers, you sound hesitant about endorsing

that theory, that people who don't have degrees or who are less

educated were more on your side, but the out campaign went for that

narrative. You built that on the idea of David versus Goliath, the

gilded cage of London versus the rest of the country, and it appears

so far the pattern of results suggest that that narrative really

appealed to a lot of voters and maybe they were on to something.

They tried to make it a battle between the haves and have-nots and

it appears still only half way through the night, are we half way

through? Almost there, it appears people are responding to that and

they didn't respond as strongly to the other side of the argument,

which was trying to frighten the life out of people on the economy.

We are less than one third through. You may feel it is half way through

the night. We are only getting down to business. It goes along with this

contempt for, I mean the thing Boris Johnson went with, this contempt for

experts. People have had enough of them. We have had enough of the

Governor of the Bank of England, enough of the INF. Enough of

anybody, we have had enough of economists. But a fascinating thing

Steven crab said, people don't believe u he used that phrase. He

said in a general context people don't believe us, which, it strikes

me that is an astonishing thing for a member of the Cabinet to say. How

do you regress it? That is a difficult challenge. If we end up,

whatever the result is, which ever side is jubilant, went up with

London being an island and the rest of the country, pointing fingers

saying you don't understand, for any Government, any political party it

is going to be difficult to find way forward from that. Patrick is back,

in Birmingham. Welcome back Patrick, what more news have you got now?

Well, I think interesting developments really in the sense all

right, no great surprise that places like North Warwickshire, Tamworth,

Cannock on the outer edge have voted to leave, I think that was expected,

but Malvern hill, that was much less according to the algorithms we have

been talking about, much likely to vote Leave, it has done by a

comfortable majority of 53% to 47%. That is the real accuse safety for

the Remain campaign. -- anxiety. The Remain campaign is braced for

substantial defeats in and round the Black Country, and one example of

what is bound to be interpreted as the relative failure frankly of

Labour to bring out their Remain support in core area, Sandwell which

is jokingly referred to as a one party state, yet the turn out there,

just 66%, which I think demonstrates what will be seen as Labour's

failure there and I can tell you Ukip will be saying over the next

few days, that they stand ready to do to Labour in their core areas in

England, what the SNP have done to Labour's support in Scotland. I was

talking to one quite prominent local Labour MP who says that on the

immigration issues, Labour has to change tack, it has to say to

people, we get it, we realise you are concerned about immigration,

that it doesn't make you a racist to have these anxieties and to change

the tenor of this debate rather than try to sort of present it in more

simple more traditional party terms. So I think there are big questions.

If Britain votes out, they have all the mechanisms they want, because

there will be will no automatic EU immigration, so presumably John

McDonnell and Jeremy Corbyn will be able to do what they want. Yes, I

think there is a debate here for the Labour Party, I think we are just at

the beginnings of this, interestingly, that turn outs again

do seem to be lower in the traditional core Labour areas, that

is again, a big worry for the party's leadership it seems to me.

Four million 389,000 for Leave, we have 122 out of 382 declared so only

a third of the way through. Emily. Let us talk to the Conservative MP

Bill Cash. I suppose we might call you an early Eurosceptic, and when

you look at where we are tonight, a third of the votes in, but let us

call it a high possibility that it could be a Brexit by the end of the

night, what are your thoughts? Well, I am, watching it with enormous

interest, and I am being very cautious, because at the moment

things are going in the right direction. I believe this is about

the common-sense of the British people, they didn't buy the

Armageddon argument, and above all else, they want to govern

themselves, and that is really the basis even when I set up the

Maastricht referendum campaign all those years ago, that is what I said

it was going to be about. About European Government and whether the

British people want to govern themselves and I think that is

coming through at the moment. I am not going to make any prediction, I

am not a John curty, I am just going to -- Curtis. There is only one John

Curtice as we shout in the stalls. But in terms of what you think might

happen, in the event of a Brexit, do you think that David Cameron should

stay on? Would you like him to trigger article 50 straightaway?

What do you see as the next step? I certainly don't think that we should

trigger article 50 straightaway, actually, it ties us right in to the

question of the consent of the European Parliament to the deal, the

majority voting, it puts us as enormous disadvantage, because it is

part of the Lisbon Treaty, if we have voted against the treaties, why

would we want to implement one of the provisions, which ties us down

when actually we have a Bert opportunity, to be able to work out

a negotiated deal on the basis of the vote which is actually led to a

Brexit if that is what happens. You skirted past the first bit of that

question, do you think David Cameron should stay in the job? Did you sign

the letter? I simply say this, that it is very difficult if you are in

Number Ten, with all the Government departments, each one of which

reports to 2 cabinet secretary and of course obviously dealing with the

Cabinet Office as well, the, as chairman of the European scrutiny

committee I am very conscious of the interaction between Government

departments, and the European issue, and I can simply say this, it has to

be done from within Number Ten, and therefore, whoever is in Number Ten

would need to be absolutely and completely committed to Brexit,

because this is going to be a very very very important and historic

development for the UK. It wouldn't be odd for you to reckon on a Brexit

campaigner, a Tory leader? Well, look, I am not going to go down

there, because we don't know what the result is, I am just simply

giving you my view as chairman of the European Scrutiny Committee and

making the point as far as I am concerned the question of who runs

the ultimate European policy, has to be in Number Ten and to do that and

to negotiate with all the implications for European

legislation, right the way across the board of all Government

department, they will have to unravel about 55% of all our law,

so, because those come from the European Union, We have heard from

the Labour side, people throwing up different ideas as to why

particularly in the North East and Sunderland and Newcastle, it seems

to be such a strong vote towards Brexit. Do you think this is purely

about Europe o, or do you concede it is about a whole host of other

dissatisfactions in people's lives? I think they interact and you only

have to look across to Europe itself, to see there are protests

and rites goes on there, -- riots going on there, there is massive

unemployment, youth unemployment up at 60% and so on. Really and truly

the bottom line is this business of people wanting to govern themselves,

I was talking to a lady this morning, in the greengrocers shop,

and I said you know, what do you intend to do? She said, very simply,

she said, I want to leave. Why did they die in the last war? That is

the kind of thing that is motivating people. They want to know whether in

fact they can govern themselves and they ask themselves these much deep

ever questions, than some of the things about whether or not there is

a shallow recession as the IFS puts it or whatever. It is actually much

deeper than that, and I think this is the soul of the British people,

coming out, and saying, we have actually had enough of being

governed by other country, we want to co-operate with them, we want to

trade with them but we don't want to be governed by them, there is a

German question as well, because they are becoming dominant in

Europe. That is also a factor. OK, thank you very much.

So let us see where things are, 3.15. John Curtice, where are

things? We have seen a lot of results during the course of the

night, where by it looks as though the Leave side have been doing well

and better than we expected they would do, in that Local Authority,

if we were looking at a 50-50 outcome, conversely we have also

seen some places, most notably in London, where the, Remain side are

doing rather better, but the truth is that so far at least we have had

many more places where Leave are doing better than expected than

where Remain are doing better than expected. Particularly the North

East, the north-west, and the West Midlands are places where the Leave

side do seem to be doing remarkably well. Remain yes in London, better

than expected, perhaps in the south-west, but those better

performances in London so far at least, just don't look to be

sufficiently better than expecting to compensate for what appear to be

adverse performances in the North East, north-west, and the West

Midlands, there is an awful lot of vote domts in. We, although we -- to

come in. But, certainly one we are looking at a close referendum, but

two, probably at the moment, the Leave side are a bit more of the

favourites in this referendum, than are the Remain side, so that is not

a forecast, but it is certainly seems to be the direction of

channel, perhaps the Leave side, just, just managing to win this

referendum by the end of the night, but many more results to come. To

clarify it for people who may just have come in on this act, your

expectations were based on 50-50, on even results so if your expectations

are disappointed one way or the other, its means it is going to go

one way or the other. That is the current direction of travel. We

never expect it all to work perfectly. The point is at the

moment at least we have more places where Leave are doing better than we

expected, than we have places where Remain were doing better than

expected, and if that pattern continues during the night Leave

will win the referendum, but there is a lot more to come.

Hilary Benn is here and Jacob Rees-Mogg. Hilary Benn, 41 years ago

I sat with your dad, I think probably an referendum night, and he

said, the problem with the EU is it is undemocratic. Is what we are

seeing tonight the British electorate catching up with him? In

those days, it was two thirds to one third, and now it is looking 50/50

if not a bit the other way. I'm tempted to say it is not yet late

enough to know, which is a different one of saying it is too early to

say. But it is clear watching the results coming in that one leads and

then the other. What is happening is the country is split absolutely down

the middle on this, and it is partly to do with the EU, it is partly to

do with other changes people have seen, concerns they have, the

continuing effects of the global crash, the way in which communities

have changed, immigration, all of those things, and they are bound up

in this referendum. Of course I met people on the campaign Trail who

said we want to take our own decisions. The argument is how you

best influence the decisions in the world when there are some things you

have to decide on a European level. Was it wrong to have the referendum

at all? We didn't want the referendum because we are not in

favour of leaving, the Conservatives won the election and the British

people will now make the choice. Is it a mistake to have this

referendum? I don't think so, particularly because it looks as if

we might win, and if we win, it was a good idea. Is it a good way to

decide things like this? People are saying it doesn't become an issue

about the EU, it becomes about poverty and discontent of all kinds.

I don't agree with that. It isn't what you pretend it is about. Most

of this was about the European Union and being economically attached to

Europe, and saying that that was beneficial. The leave side were

saying that there was a lack of democracy, a lack of control, and

about immigration. It seems to me that the one area where referendums

are absolutely right is on constitutional matters, because the

one thing Parliament can never do is give away its own power. That has to

be returned and tired of the electorate every five years. Within

that five years, there is discretion to act, but the power must be

returned to the voters in each general election, and the problem

with the European Union is that power has steadily eroded and been

given away to unelected officials in Brussels. But you don't have to ask

this kind of question, and you could leave the EU by dint of a general

election. Having a party that... If Ukip formed a Government we could

leave that we. If you take the view that sovereignty comes from the

British people and is dedicated to Parliament for five years, which is

a witty traditional view of parliamentary sovereignty, then you

would agree that the one thing we the people must be consulted is when

there is a fundamental change in the Constitution, and leaving the

European Union would be a concert usual change. But joining was a

constitutional change. It should have had a referendum in advance but

it had won three years later. So is only call another one now? The

theory of referendums was not well developed by 1973. It developed

through 1979 with the referendums in Scotland and Wales, likewise in the

devolution referendums and referendum for the Mayor of London

in the late 1990s, the referendum on the alternative vote. The British

constitution over centuries has evolved, and one of the evolutions

over the last 40 or 50 years is the biggest constitutional issues are

referred to the people, and I think that is a very sensible way to

proceed. If you decide there is a need for a constitutional issue to

be resolved. That is right. Which you don't necessarily decide. But

you think it is a mistake, Hilary Benn, to have this referendum. Do

you think that one of the consequences as Jacob Rees-Mogg puts

it a constitutional issue has actually attracted all kinds of

discontent and turned it probably not into a constitutional issue but

a view about... We heard about experts, we don't like the Institute

for Fiscal Studies, the Bank of England, the IMF, the wages, the in

security, immigration. All of these things got bundled together, so it

isn't about the constitution, it is about other things. Let's be clear

why we had this referendum, it is because David Cameron realised that

he couldn't control his party. That is why we had this referendum, and

as you will know, 41 years ago, this is it repeated in mirror image. 41

years ago the Labour Party was split, and the Conservatives were

united, and they have passed each other in the intervening 41 years,

and are now occupying the same position but opposite, and David

Cameron, who had resisted having a referendum, decided in the end the

anyway I can manage my divided party is to hold the referendum, and we

will discover in the not too distant future what the British people have

said. Three hours from now, with a bit of luck. Jacob Rees-Mogg, you

said about your Chancellor of the Exchequer, he needs to calm down and

stop talking nonsense. Do you think he should go? What I was referring

to was when he suggested that there should be an Emergency Budget, which

was an absolute panic measure, and George Osborne is a fine Chancellor

who has done a lot of good things as Chancellor, but that panic budget

was a very silly thing to say. He did need to calm down. It was

something that wouldn't happen, wouldn't get through Parliament and

wouldn't be the right economic response even if the Chancellor

tried to do it, so I thought that was a foolish thing for him to have

said. And all right to insult him in that we like Heseltine as John

Major, humbug and whatever it was, vengeful men and all that. It was a

fairer old tit-for-tat, which you getting campaigns. If tomorrow

morning we wake up... We will be awake! I am! And Britain is to

leave, do you think all that stuff about Emergency Budget will go by

the board? Do you think none of the economic problems that the

Chancellor foresaw will come to pass? I do not think they will come

to pass, I think the Emergency Budget will not happen. There is

some volatility in the financial markets. You would expect volatility

in Stirling, and that is one of the automatic stabilisers of the

economy, I don't think that is a particular problem. The plague of

frogs and the death of the first-born that were predicted will

not come to pass. And no recession? There will be no recession began of

Brexit. There are fragile economic conditions are the other parts of

the world, so I can't say no recession ever, but not caused by

this specifically. Hilary Benn, do you agree? All of the experts who we

are told now that we shouldn't pay much attention to seem to be of the

view, and certainly we argued it during the campaign that the country

will be worse off economically. One very strong argument for remaining

in the European Union. The extent of that, who knows? It depends on the

result. But if there were to be a vote to leave, far as the prime and

it is concerned, again see how he can remain in his job for very long

at all. What does very long at all mean? I think it will be hard for

him in those circumstances were that to be the outcome for him to remain.

It John Mann said that by the time children were going to school in the

morning, he would be gone. I don't know about that, but if you are the

Prime Minister, you have called this referendum, you have laid your

reputation on the line your arguments, I think it will be very

hard, but I am hoping very much that we get a remain vote, and it

continues to ebb and flow as we watch the results coming. Laura.

Hilary Benn, are you frustrated as somebody who is passionately for the

European Union that Labour is somebody who came late to the party,

shall we say? When Tom Watson was an earlier, he said it was quite

difficult to start with to break into the Conservative fight that was

going on, it really was very tough. And we got more of a chance towards

the end. But can I just say that all the indications thus far, we will

have to see the final result, is that a majority of Labour supporters

we think will have voted to Remain, but the problem for the

Conservatives, will the Prime Minister be able to say that? I

somehow doubt it. Stay with us, and we may be able to talk more, but we

have to move on to see how things stand on how far we have got to go.

Here is the House of Commons, as dawn comes up, not quite 3:25am, and

this is the vote. The centre is the winning post, the red tee line, and

it is 6 million leave at the moment and 5.8 million remain. So, Leave

has the edge, and the grey bit is the bit that has got to be filled

in. Let's go to some more of our reporters, we can go back to Steven

Godden in Falkirk. Steve. David, the local business here in Falkirk is

finished, all that remains is the people to get up on that stage

behind me and to announce the national result here in Scotland. In

Falkirk, it very much followed the pattern that it has across Scotland,

it was a vote to remain. Within that, some of the numbers came as a

bit of a surprise to people, but we are expecting Edinburgh to announce

imminently, and the expectoration there is that Edinburgh will vote to

remain in large numbers. We also saw a vote in Glasgow of almost 2-1 in

favour to remain. There, the interesting thing was turnout. We

have had a national figure for turnout in Scotland, just over 67%,

but in Glasgow it was 56%, much below the level of support and the

level of involvement and engagement that we saw during the independence

referendum two years ago. Also across the picture there was an

expectation that things were looking a bit patchy at one stage, in

certain areas that may have been a bit more sceptical about the EU, an

area like Murray, for example, but it voted to remain. So now we only

have a handful left, well over the three quarters marquee in Scotland,

and all have voted in favour of Remain, so how that fits into the

national picture will be fascinating. Thank you, and let's

join Mark Devenport now in Belfast. David, the county has been conducted

according to the 18 parliamentary constituencies, we are well through

the count, with 14 constituencies declared, just waiting on four

results. At the moment, Remain is in the lead in Northern Ireland, that

was to be expected, we think it is about 54%-46%. Because it is

Unionists by and large who have been supporting the Leave camp at

nationalists the Remain camp, we would expect of the constituencies

to come, most will probably vote for Remain, so they will stretch that

lead slightly, so I wouldn't expect anything other than a Remain vote

here, but it has to be said that nationalists have not come out in

the numbers that may be have been expected previously, we have had

some lower turnouts in nationalist areas, so that might mean that the

level of the victory that Remain takes in Northern Ireland is less

than expected. And now James Williams in Wales, in Deeside.

James? I hope you can hear me. We are getting a lot of results coming

through here in Wales, so we're trying to keep an eye on them. So

far we have had most of the declarations, just four left. 18

decorations out of 22, and so far we have had three for Remain,

surprisingly Monmouthshire has just voted by the narrowest of margins

for Remain, that is a very conservative area. David Davis, one

of the more vociferous proponents he represents the seat in Parliament,

so that is a surprise result, the Vale of Glamorgan has also voted for

Remain, that is Alun Cairns, the Welsh Secretary, seats, and Kerry

did you is the other seat that has remained. So there are four left to

declare, and of those, we are expecting Gwinnett and Cardiff to

remain. It now seems to be down to how large the majority to Remain in

Cardiff is. It seems that they don't think they have done enough in

Cardiff, that the margin isn't big enough to make up the shortfall that

they currently have, but we will have to wait and see what happens in

Cardiff, ends it seems it will all hinge on that as to how Wales as a

whole votes. Thank you, James. The leave campaign if you now look at

the bottom right-hand corner there, ahead by just over 300,000. Jeremy,

shall we see how things are settling? If they are? Volatile

still, isn't it? It is, and our index is proving very handy in

working out what is going on. It is a relief! We put all of these areas

into the order of how Eurosceptical they were. Just go back on this

ordering, from the mostly in favour of Leave all the way over there to

the most Remain all the way over here, and the calculation is done on

this basis, and this is really important. Were there to be a 50/50

vote across the whole country, where the dotted line is over there, that

would be 50/50, so those particular county areas would be absolutely

50/50, so what we are lucky for is areas where yellow for Remain pops

up where we are expecting bluefin Leave, and vice versa. And so far we

have had some interesting results are present. Come with me and I will

show you. These are the areas we would expect to be going Remain in

an even results, and most of them are, but you can see there, we have

heard these results, Lincoln, Swansea, Coventry, Watford, places

which we thought would go Remain in the event of a 50/50 result actually

going Leave. Remain's response to that has to be the pilot voted their

strongest areas. They are hampered by a lower-than-expected turnout in

Scotland, and whether they can do that in London is going to be the

crucial question of the night. Take a look at this. I am showing you

regions. Regions of the UK, Nations and regions, we will start from the

right. The colour at the top is the winning colour, so in London, Remain

have won. In Scotland, Remain of won by even more, proportionally.

Northern Ireland, again, Remain more or less. But these are the regions.

The South West, you can see, South Northwest, Yorkshire and the Humber,

Northeast, West Midlands, East of England and Wales, East Midlands,

all going for a Leave. That is a portrait of a divided country on

this one issue, almost the most traumatic portrait you could have

what is going on tonight, and if Remain do win, it will be Scotland

and London that keep the UK in the EU, but it looks at the moment as

though the drifters towards blue. What have we got so far? So many

more votes to count, always worth emphasising. Let major shoyu if I

can, we will go back to our index for a second, and I will bring on

the votes we have got so far. Let's bring the camera out of the ceiling,

that is all the counting that still has to be done, but you can see 6.4

million leave, 6.1 million Remain, bring it back down and it is so, so

poised. I guess if you are watching at home on TV, you are not going to

go to bed any time soon. We have turned Broadcasting House

into the likes of Times Square. We have the figures showing how things

stand at the moment. Running through the night. And it is showing 51.3%

for Leave. 48.7% for Remain at the moment. Still we are saying it is

too early to call, which is obvious from what we have been say, there is

no point in calling it until it is safe to call. So those are the

figures, and it is time for a round up of the news. So, once again, here

we are. The results emerging from the UK's

referendum on the EU so far show a very close contest

between the Leave and Remain votes. Leave is consistently doing better

than predicted in vast Remain is performing better

in London and Scotland, suggesting potentially a very

divided UK once all A final result will not be known

for some hours. Here's our political correspondent

Eleanor Garnier and her report It was the moment

polling stations closed. And the first result to declare,

Gibraltar, with a decisive 96% vote Not long after, a flurry

of good results for Leave In Newcastle, Remain only

managed a narrow win. A much smaller victory

than expected. And in Sunderland, Leave had

a huge win, with 61%. Away from the north of England,

in Basildon, in Essex, And another count with a big turn

out, at 74%. But there was good news for Remain

in the London borough of Lambeth, with 79%, a much better

result than expected. Though overall, it is looking

very tight indeed. I think it is going to be extremely

close, and there is a disaffected vote, and it is disaffected

with politics overall, disaffected with Westminster

politics in particular. Some of that are Labour supporters

too, and we have done our best to try and turn that around,

but it has been tough. At a Leave campaign party in London

earlier in the night, Win or lose this battle tonight

we will win this war, we will get our country back,

we will get our independence back It is looking increasingly

like turnout will be above 70% for the first time in a UK-wide

contest since 1997. As results continue to come in,

remember the referendum isn't decided count

by count, but vote by vote. Early results have upset

the world's financial markets. The pound initially soared

as polls closed. But then it suffered its third

largest fall on record, plummeting from about $1.50

to almost $1.40, as results began to show stronger-than-expected

support for leaving the EU. More recently, the pound has

recovered, but the markets The Italian coastguard says it

rescued around 4,500 migrants Good weather and calm seas have led

to more people risking The charity MSF has been helping

the rescue operation. A woman's body was recovered

from one of the vessels President Obama has suffered

a setback in his plan to spare millions of people living illegally

in the US from deportation. The Supreme Court has

blocked the reforms, with the opinion of eight

justices split equally. Mr Obama called the ruling

heartbreaking. A man has been jailed for life

for plotting a beheading on the streets of London,

inspired by so-called Islamic State, which could have

targeted a poppy seller. 23-year-old Nadir Syed

was arrested in November 2014, One of the world's longest running

civil wars, in Colombia, has been brought to an end

after more than 50 The so-called FARC rebels have

signed a deal to lay down their arms following three

years of negotiations. More than 200,000 people were killed

during the conflict. The #ru89 from Edinburgh v 64494

Leave. 26% to 74%. That is a largest part of Scotland apart from Glasgow.

The largest number of voters. And a lot of people incidentally

with degrees. I don't know whether you agree with this thing, because

you are a reasonably well educated fellow but they are been saying all

along the educated people vote to Remain and those who don't have

qualifications vote to Leave. Insulting isn't it. I don't think

so. People do the surveys and come to the conclusion, and clearly they

have come to the conclusion people with degrees have not been backing

Brexit. You are the exception to the rule. I am. I think it is

interesting. This has been basically an insurgent campaign, it has been a

campaign against the establishment and I think this is important,

because there is a feeling that the rulers of the country have got out

of touch with those who elect them and this applies across Europe and

Europe is at the heart of this, because there are so many things

that British politicians can no longer do, because the laws are made

in Brussels, and we carry the can for this, because when voters are

concerned, we can't change it, and so I think that disconnect between

the elect and the elect fors has widened, electors and this is a kick

back against it and that is why, I think people furthest from the

establishment, have been the most likely to vote Leave, and I say this

without beginning to deny that I am a cop ever bottomed member of the

establishment. I happen to agree with the anti-establishment tribe on

this. If it is very close, either way, is it going to lead to a great

sense of disaffection by the losing side, because they have been asked

to make a choice, what do you think? The people who have lost out, one

way or or the other, will they be difficult to satisfy, difficult to

please? They are going to find something they obviously believe in

just taken away like that. Which ever way it goes there will be a

great deal of disappointment and sorrow on the part of the losing

side. One of the challenges that society will face, politics will

face, is how do you try and heal the divisions that have been created by

what has been a lively and at times a feisty debate, and I fear that if

there is further disappointment, on the part of those who thought they

were voting to get something and it doesn't appear that it will be more

difficult to manage. We have fro try and address the root cause. The

Brexiters? For example if Leave were to win. Then if you look at

migration, a lot of the Leave campaigners say there will continue

to be a need for might integration, skills and the economic contribution

they make, but the real task will be to try and heal the divisions this

referendum has created, and that is a responsibility on all of us to

make that happen, and to reflect each in our own party about what it

is we now need to do, to play our part in ensuring that. The Leave

side never put any number on its control of immigration, did it,

unlike the Prime Minister incidentally who did and your party

o who did put, the Leave campaign never said, never gave a figure at

all, it just said... It is a referendum not a general election,

and the Leave campaign could only put forward broad outlines of what

it thought ought to be done. . Co-on it took VAT off fuel. A mandate

coming from the British people, in a general election you can set out

policies on every last detail. If you win you have a duty to implement

them because you have a majority, you can pass the legislation n a

referendum you can't put forward a detailed manifesto, with any

realistic prospect so yes, suggestions were made we could take

VAT off fuel, but as the Leave campaign will not be the Government,

even if we win this vote, it is going to be up to the Government to

look at the mandate that it has been given 6789 Should Cameron go for a

new, an election and go for a new mandate, briefly, because we have

to... I wouldn't rule out a new election all together. In this

autumn? It is complicated under fixed term Parliament Act. You could

change the act. There are ways round it or you could change the act. A

new election is not impossible. We are going to rejoin our bring

Scotland back to join us and Wales to join us who have been briefly

away looking at their own events, here we are.

So we have had 200 out of 382 in. We have just had Edinburgh, County

Durham. 153,000 Leave, 100,000 Remain. Can we see the two. 58%

Leave 42% Remain. And Jacob Rees-Mogg says he doesn't rule out

an early election. In order to get a mandate to get things moving again.

There will be a lot of policy changes that need to come about if

we leave the European Union, that inevitably areas controlled by the

European Union will be controlled by us and a matter for natural

political debate. I don't think it is impossible, it really depends on

what the response is in Parliament and by the Government to this.

Hissingry Ben do you expect an election? That depends on the result

of the referendum and who is Prime Minister once we know what the

result is. -- hilly Ben. It would be in the hands of the Government if

they decided they wanted to do one. The public might say we had an

election not all that long ago, why are we having another one? We have

made a decision about Europe in the referendum, it is Government's job

to get on and govern and our job to hold the Government to account. You

said David Cameron would be almost straight out on his ear if he lost

the referendum. That for voters... But they may or may not result in a

general election. If he did leave as Prime Minister, well it would result

in a new Prime Minister arriving but that is a problem for the

Conservative Party not for me. John Curtice are ahead by nearly 500,000.

Is that significant. It is a lead of 500,000. Statistically from your

point of view would you expect that to fall or grow? I think the truth

is, the crucial thing this that I am looking at, is there ares of places

where the Remain side are doing better than we expect according to

the index. But for every one of those that I can see, I have got

between two and three places where the Leave side are doing better than

we expect. So you can see the balance is one, it doesn't look like

anything other than a close result, but certainly that tally that says

that Leave are ahead is a tally isn't, is telling you something, is

it Leave do seem to be ahead, and that at the moment, at least, it is

by no means definite they are the favourites to be ahead at the end of

the night. That is something you should look at because that, it

seems to be the direction, in which we are heading, unless the second

half of this referendum night is very different from the first half.?

You are being very cautious John. David, we don't wish people to get

the wrong impression, and the truth is there is more than half the votes

to come in. A lot of the local authorities to come in early on are

the smaller local authorities but again, if I were on the Remain side

I would be worrying about the fact they have lost in Sheffield,

Coventry, Wolverhampton, relatively large local authorities are going

towards Leave, so we certainly can't say that it is going to be Leave

because we are look at a narrow referendum, but just to reiterate it

looks as though the Leave side are favourite, and that the conversation

you have been having with your two politicians about what would happen

in the event of a Leave vote, shall we say I think is no longer a purely

academic one. James Landale is at the Remain

headquarters. Are you the right? I think you are not attached.

Nic Watt, you are connected, you are from the Leave campaign. They seem

pretty confident there. Do you think what John Curtice was saying, still

too early to call and all that? Do they believe that, or do they

believe they have won? I think it is fair to say a lot of drinkers been

taken, they are very, very confident. I was talking to a senior

Ukip figure and they looked almost shell-shocked and said, what have we

done, I think we may have pulled it off, because of course Nigel Farage

was saying earlier on this evening that he didn't think he was doing

it, but now they are saying they think they may have got them across

the line. But of course they are not the official Leave campaign, that is

Wrote Leave across the river, they are cautiously optimistic, and a

source I have been talking to at Vote Leave say we think we can

overcome them, we are smashing Remain everywhere else in the

country. Vote Leave are not having a party this evening, they say they

have more important things to spend their money, it is called getting

the vote out, and there is the political decision which is Cabinet

ministers at the top, Michael Gove, Boris Johnson, they are at the

moment at least supporting the Prime Minister, and the plan is we will

not hear from Boris Johnson and Michael Gove until after the Prime

Minister has given either his concession or his victory speech.

But what I am hearing in Whitehall are very severe nerves. One senior

source said, well, I won't repeat the words, and he said, this wasn't

meant to happen. The pound has been going down, and this source said to

me, if this carries on like this, everything will go through the floor

in the morning. Thank you. Let's go back to James Landale at the Remain

headquarters. We heard earlier that Cameron's staff had left, presumably

to go to a conclave somewhere and decide what to do. Is that so, or is

there a party atmosphere? At the beginning of the evening, this place

was buzzing, full of Cabinet ministers and frontbenchers, former

Liberal leaders, even Eddie Izzard in a rather fetching pink hat. They

have all gone, this place has thinned out, I don't think you could

describe this as buzzing. It is like that moment a drinks party would use

of me luck up and realise that most people have gone and there is a real

danger that you will be the last person left on the floor. If you

talk to the strategist here, they say it is still doable, it is still

possible, look to some of the results in London, Birmingham,

Manchester. But they admit they have to win really, really big now. That

might be just a little bit of Elizabeth, just a little bit of

wishful thinking. But that is what they are thinking at the moment, a

lot of long faces here. Thank you. Just a question. When Harold Wilson

had this referendum in 75, he was quite careful not to be the sort of

leader of let's stay, he signed a thing saying we want to stay in, but

he didn't go around campaigning, he kept back from it so that if he

lost, he could have carried on. Do you think David Cameron made a

mistake by becoming so totally involved after his negotiation in

Brussels in being cheerleader for the remain campaign, saying, you

decide? Yes I think it would've been better if he had been more in his

approach and risen above it because he could have had an easier job to

unite his party again afterwards, but he was in a difficult position

because he is the most popular figure on the Remain side, he has a

lot of influence and he had taken the decision that we should have the

referendum, so it wasn't an easy decision but it might have been

better had he been more in partial. Let's go to our Asia correspondent

in Singapore. I can't think what time it is in Singapore, but what

has been the reaction of the markets? Across Asian markets, there

is a real sense of anxiety. Just in the last few minutes, we have seen

the pound fall to levels not seen since 2009 here. Traders on this for

telling me that at 1.37, the pound last hit that level against the US

dollar in March 2000 and nine. You are seeing that anxiety being felt

across the Asian markets today. When results first started trickling in,

traders said there was a sense of complacency, most of their clients

in Asia had factored in a Remain vote, and that has changed

dramatically in the last couple of hours as these results started to in

one trader said this is the closest decision he has ever seen. And EU

think this is a panic reaction as people in favour of leaving the EU

have always said, and it will soon sort itself out, or is there a

feeling that this is a serious downturn that will sustain itself? I

think there is a degree of panic, and as I was saying earlier, that

sense of complacency that the remain vote would emerge as the stronger

vote today. It is still a long way to go until we get those results as

you have been saying all morning on the channel, but certainly a sense

of long-term impact is also being felt on trading floors across Asia

today. I think there is a sense of anxiety in how this will all play

out as the results come through later today. Thank you very much

indeed. We join James Reynolds in Brussels. You were going to be at a

pub, presumably meant to be celebrating Remain. The Funky

Monkey, I was told. What has been the reaction so far? We are standing

in the cold now, the Funky Monkey gave up hours ago! As you can

probably notice, some of the lights on, that is a bit unusual past four

o'clock in the morning, but I doubt that anybody in the building behind

me has had any sleep. They will be incredibly nervous about what they

are seeing, and if there is a Brexit result, we expect John Torode --

Jean-Claude Juncker to come out later, and it will not be easy. The

European Community was designed to go one way, to have more

integration, more passengers, it wasn't designed to stop and let