02/02/2012 Hearts and Minds

Hello and welcome to the programme. Coming up this week, disarray and

the UUP. How long until Tom Elliott sex David McNarry? Peter Robinson

reaches out to the GAA but in the backwoods it is a very different

story. And how money is changing the course of American politics.

Oh dear, oh dear, hell hath no fury it seems like a politician score.

So wounded was David McNarry when Tom Elliott demoted him instalment,

they left the Assembly party had launched a broadside at his leader,

accusing him of being a ditherer was a personality unsuited for

leadership. The party has rallied around Mr Elliott and condemned

what some politely called Mr McNarry's over-reaction. It leaves

a bad taste and the UUP mouse. My guests are some up to pride from

the newsletter. David McNarry seems to believe he did nothing wrong but

he told the Belfast Telegraph but the Ulster Unionist Party was

always going to be second string to the DUP. Surely no politician

should do something like that? it is not the first time he has

said that in some ways I suppose, which is possibly why he feels he

has been hard done by. He said these things many times over the

last number of years. He has been a thorn in the flesh of some ways in

the party who would like to taking a more oppositional stance to the

DUP, to put clear blue water between themselves and the DUP. He

sees the future as uniting and subtly with the DUP maybe not that

TV but bringing the two big parties together. To say you are going to

be the junior minister, you can't go to an election saying, well,

vote for us, we will be the junior partner. Which is why it is not

terribly popular with his colleagues, or the members of the

party. But he would say it is popular on the doorsteps and it is

something which he has articulated since that interview several times,

most notably yesterday, both writing in the newsletter and on

the Nolan show at length and in quite a lot of detail, he sees the

situation where both parties would fight elections separately but on

the understanding that as soon as the elections were over they would

join forces at Stormont. It is unpopular with some people.

Remember the Lib Dems saying go and prepare for government, however

unlikely your electoral chances are you have to beat them up all the

time. Weld the extraordinary thing was the Ulster Unionist Party in

general is just when you think they can't find another banana-skin,

they look for one. They managed to get what should have been at 24

hour story entered the third week. The problem with this, I have some

sense of what David McNarry as saying, he is looking for closer

co-operation. I don't think it was a merger, he wants in terms of the

Boundary Commission where they're going to be cutting constituencies,

he wants closer co-operation and a Heathwick -- and they think he

feels he was instructed to talk about these possibilities but then

it ended up the reality is he is a loose cannon, a maverick, he

overstepped the mark but the reality is this is a story which

should have been killed off on the first day. It is there would have,

should have moment, it should have been, and here we are now, they are

still dragging it out. Martina, our own political correspondent, why

were there five days between the first article and the demotion from

the education committee? Well, in part I think it was as Alex said,

this should have been a 24 hour wonder and it turned into a crisis

because I think Tom Elliott underestimated the reaction in his

Assembly team to the article and it really has been mismanaged because

the article appeared on Monday, the interview had been done the

previous Thursday, now David McNarry did speak to his leader

both before and after the interview and he said that the leader was

happy enough. Tom Elliott says he was irritated after hearing some of

the things that David McNarry had said in the interview because he

said he strayed off lines that had been given to him. The officer team

was informed after the interview but the Assembly team was not a

surely a blind man on a galloping horse would have seen that this

would have unsettled those who were in favour of a more oppositional

role and again, a think David McNarry is right when he says the

leader is caught between competing agendas, those who want to move

closer to the DUP in terms of electoral co-operation and who want

to stay in the Executive and those who see the party being rebuilt

through a very staunch opposition will brought and if Tom Elliott had

gone to his Assembly team, or ensured that someone had briefed

them, this would not have happened in my view. There would have been

some problems but David McNarry has been treated unfairly in my view in

this sense, he may have gone too far and the article but the reason

given for his punishment is fairly flimsy, that one line in her

article, which actually vindicates him in the sense he was not talking

about unity between the two parties, or mergers. Does the five day gap

add to the picture of the leader as a ditherer? Of course it does and

up a heart of this is a lack of communication. We still don't have

a statement from the party saying David Begg Nouri has been removed

from his role, this is why, this is what he did, this is why he stepped

out of line -- David McNarry. I think at every stage the party has

either said nothing for people have said things privately to

journalists from the various camps and that has led to a situation

where the leader seems to have no control and perhaps he has limited

control over his MLAs and the wider membership. Alex could tell us

about the two camps, who is in them, be indiscreet. The difficulty with

the Unionist Party, there is a Dad's Army quality to it. The

Corporal Jones saying don't panic, no matter what happens, don't panic,

and the other side, we are all doomed. That is the problem. There

is a gap. It is of Grand Canyon proportions. I am not sure it can

be bridged. Sam and Martin are right. Some of them do want to go

into opposition, someone to carve out a separate role. Fair enough to

say John McAllister, people like that, then there is another side,

the Danny Kennedy, the David McNarry side, who think they should

be closer co-operation, Unionist should stand together and even if

Tom was... If someone had said two weeks ago, if someone had said is

Tom safe, I would have said probably, but not so much today.

That person is stuck with exactly the same problem because it is not

just a matter of warring factions because there are maybe seven or

eight factions but there are two Biggs fights. There is no one

person who can take the two side sad sorted out. We had Martina, Das

Olmert -- but on a CRAE standing side-by-side in the Great Hall at

Stormont saying we support the leader. Is that a good omen?

think it is a sign of the party trying to fix the damage and it is

damage limitation and I suppose the leader had, the -- someone had to

respond to what David McNarry had been saying but the leader could

not go out, so they tend two lieutenant. From opposing factions.

The optics are good but behind the scenes it does not hide the fact

that there are two opposing factions and as Alex Kane said, how

do you reconcile it? I am not sure they can be reconciled because if

those who want opposition are willing to accept the settled will,

if there is a majority in favour of closer co-operation, then you are

heading for another split and I think they are heading for another

split. They are down to 15, they had 16 last year, is anyone going

to take money that there will be still 15 at the end of this term? I

think it is a party that is, you know, chronically divided and as

one listener to Talkback said the other day, it is a kamikaze party,

I find it hard to disagree with that description. David McNarry

spoke of his lifelong devotion to the cause but he has damaged the

party not just by his departure, but the knock-on effect is they

lose committee seats. The influence diminishes more and more? Well, it

is a knock-on effect but in reality the party should have known that.

They should know enough about the mechanics of the business of how

Committees are formed and what happens when there is a movement

between parties, they should have known that was going to happen and

going back to what you said, this whole issue, they have waited two

weeks to talk about a discipline in committee. It will not wait for a

couple of weeks and then there will be more weeks. They should have

done it at the beginning, curtail this, call the disciplinary

committee with immediate effect which would have closed everything

down. McNarry would not have had to go, there were a number of ways

they could have dealt with this, they could have suspended him from

the Assembly group, that would have solved the problem and there would

not have been a problem with Committees. But they have left it.

The committee takes four, five, six weeks to make a decision, you will

have all sorts of rumours and counter rumours that worse than

that come and lavatories in a position that he has to defend his

-- and that Mary is in a position where he has to defend his position

and he will have to put every piece of information and the knock-on

damage caused by that could dwarf what has happened in the past two

weeks -- David McNarry. What do you think the future holds for David

McNarry? I think it is difficult to say her -- to see him stay as an

independent. We saw was David McLarty, the other man who left he

went to the independent benches, he really has been forgotten in some

ways. I'm sure he is doing work in his constituency but in terms of

the bid -- the bigger political picture, and David McNarry it sees

himself as playing an influential role within Unionism and he is not

part of the party it is difficult to see what he can be at this stage,

given how difficult things have become between the two sides. I

think of the DUP will take him that is the obvious place for him to go.

Was at that is going to happen, I am not sure, but it is difficult to

see him stay. Has he got enough following to get re-elected? I am

not sure if he will stand again. He is 65. The election is a long way

off. I'm not sure that is the forefront of his mind. In a

statement about the disciplinary committee, it seems to talk about

other people as well. What do we think is going on there? It is hard

to know because immediately we have got a statement, we are making

phone calls to the party, party sources, and they are -- and

they're all kinds of rumours and speculation they put this thing out

and think no one will not have leaks but it maybe that they are

going after David McNarry but they don't want to appear it is just him

so they will widen it out and say if anybody else has grievances,

people around David McNarry, other names in the frame, perhaps

speaking over to over the last week. -- so perhaps speaking out over the

last week. The new Conservative Party were supposed to be launched

in two months time but they have brought it forward. Either

prescience, good luck, is this a good time to be a new Conservative

Party? If you are going to launch something new that Lordship when

your primary opponent is at its lowest ebb for a very long time --

then launch it. The problem for the new Conservatives, whatever they

call themselves, I think it is Conservatives and Unionists, which

is a hark back, they have to be careful. If they are looking at an

Ulster Unionist Party which is imploding, but is the sort of

people they want to bring over, and also members and representatives

from that, you bring in a lot of baggage. And in an entirely new

organisation it needs new people, new thinking, new mechanisms. It

should not see itself as a refugee camp for people who are unhappy

with Tom Elliott or David McNarry or anybody else. Thank you for your

David McNarry is offering unionists the same choice as Henry Ford

offered motorists. "You can have a car painted any colour you want -

just as long as it is black" - or perhaps Orange in this case. It

worked for Ford but it may not be so good for the UUP. Tom Elliott

road tested this particular motor before the last Assembly election.

He suggested that the UUP and DUP could stand as separate parties and

then come together afterwards in a single block to prevent any

possibility of a Sinn Fein First Minister being elected. So, a bit

like the three card trick, voters would have a choice, but it

wouldn't really matter who they voted for. The outcome would be the

same. At the time the idea was shot down by Peter Robinson, the DUP

leader. He insisted that unionists had to back the DUP to defeat bogey

man McGuinness in second place. Anything else was a diversion. Some

critics called Mr Elliott "Uncle Tom" for suggesting a future which

they saw as subservience to the DUP, who would own the plantation up at

Stormont. We now know that, after the election, the old idea was

dusted off again, with Mr McNarry fronting it in negotiations.

Members were shocked when the details came out. McNarry told me

in an interview that he would like to see the day when there was a DUP

First Minister with a UUP junior minister helping him. That got

people's backs up. "A flight of fancy" said Tom Elliott, who

administered the lash until Mr McNarry resigned the whip. But is

it really so fanciful? In the last Assembly, UUP figures like Michael

McGimpsey slugged it out with the DUP. After the election, they only

fought amongst themselves. Now Danny Kennedy, the only remaining

UUP minister, attends the DUP ministerial group where his

constructive contribution is praised by Peter Robinson. This is

one possible future and it would lead inevitably to UUP absorption

by the DUP. Another is to go back, cloth cap in hand, to the Tories

and ask politely for the merger which they offered before Christmas

but which was turned down. That is what the once mighty UUP is reduced

to. It still has talented members like Mike Nesbitt, Basil McCrea,

Danny Kennedy and John McCallister. It still has a considerable branch

structure. Even though many members have not renewed this year, there

could be enough there to attract asset strippers who might still pay

a good price. The party might even continue as an independent force if

it could muster a same collective direction and purpose. Otherwise

the only battles it can fight are The socks of Liam Clarke.

Peter Robinson enjoyed his first taste of Gaelic football at the

weekend, and hardly had the final whistle gone than McGuinness was

straining to attend a match at Windsor Park. Q back-slapping about

how far we have come. But further down the political fitting,

reconciliation has some way to go. -- political food chain.

It was a sight to make headlines. The DUP First Minister attending a

GAA match in Armagh. I think of it is left to some people, there is

never a right time to do anything. I think the GAA have shown they are

moving forward and had been positive and responsible. I think

it is right to do it. I argued we have to move away from them and us

attitudes in Northern Ireland. is not the first time politicians

have visited sporting events at to demonstrate commitment to community

relations. In January 2008, when he was the sports minister, this DUP

Minister attended at she -- a GAA match. Last year, the current sport

minister watched an international soccer match between Northern

Ireland and the fear violence. While the First Minister may want

to move away from a them and Us attitude, in some areas of Northern

Ireland, it seems that process is likely to take members of his party

a little longer. Cook's tone is one of the largest towns in County

Tyrone, and in the middle of an Ulster constituency. It is famous

for its high street, one of the widest and longest in Ireland.

Recently, it has been hitting the headlines for a less positive

reasons. Here, at the district council, DUP councillors have

refused to stand for a minute's silence in memory of relatives of

the Sinn Fein councillor John Mack money. DUP councillors refused --

also refused to be photographed alongside Sinn Fein. When that

matter was read, one DUP councillor said she would rather die than be

photographed with Sinn Fein. think it sends the wrong message.

Whenever you see Peter Robinson going to add GAA match it is

positive and then people look for leadership and this certainly does

not show good relations to anyone. When hearts and minds contacted to

a councillor, she said she did not want to make a comment. Her

colleague was unavailable. We were unable to contact any of these

councillors. In an earlier statement, at DUP said, all of its

representatives supported party policy to represent -- to deliver a

stable Northern Ireland. The Mid Ulster male in Cook's time has been

following the story. The party leaders and people at the top seem

to be setting an agenda that they are working together and moving

forward together. It is possibly at ground to its level there is still

a little catching up to be done. I was say the reaction is that there

are bigger issues out there to be concerned about rather than whether

someone stands for a minute silence at a council meeting. I know we

have got issues with the hospital and the roads and I think people of

this town want to see action being done about these things. As the

pensioners luncheon club run by Age Concern, they know all about bread

and butter issues. Today, as well as feeding these visitors, 52 hot

meals have gone out to those who cannot make it a long. We end this

club work on a shoestring. We try to do our best for senior citizens.

A senior citizen comes through that door, we do not ask him if he is a

Muslim or at what, as lorries he is not in the Taliban, I do not worry.

That is our policy. We do not want to go back to the dark days. I hate

this. It does not get you anywhere. It gets people's backs up. I like

everything in harmony. Are you leaving yourself? With pensioners

being in the position they are, they have to support each other.

Councillors are in that -- are voted into the position they are in

and have to set an example. Many of these pensioners lived through that

it -- the worst of the Troubles and to now we are living in an

uncertain economic time. For them, arguing about the past is no longer

on the menu. As the US presidential elections

come closer, the challenge for the Republican candidate has been a

bloody battle between Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich. The Super backs

have -- packs have been changing that the face of American politics.

Since 2010, parties are allowed to take a limited contributions. This

funded Mitt Romney's $15 million TV campaign against Newt Gingrich.

A story of greed. Plying the system for a quick buck. Mitt Romney, more

ruthless than Wall Street. For tens of thousands of Americans are

suffering began when Mitt Romney came to town. Well Florida families

lost everything in the housing crisis, Newt Gingrich cashed in.

Gingrich was paid more than $1.6 million by the same agency that

helped create the crisis. He censure and -- he was censured --

sanction for ethics violations. He then cashed in. If Newt Gingrich

wins, this guy would be very happy. Joining now is Professor Catherine

Clinton from Queen's University. Political parties have always

relied on private money on both sides of the Atlantic, why are

people so concerned about these super packs? I think because media

has paid a larger and larger role. We may talk about the 19th century

cider campaigns, we are now in an even rougher are buying television

ads is really controlling primaries and primaries control the next

primaries so here we are in February in making our way up to

Super Tuesday and Americans are watching who is winning, who is

losing. Therefore, they are influenced by the adverts they seek

and at the last Republican debate before Florida, you actually got

their candidates scrapping over who was behind which at. Many Americans

are not will wear of the way in which these machines are funded --

or we have the way these machines are funded by donors. It is said

that Mitt Romney spent $15 million in Florida and had 60 adverts to

everyone that Newt Gingrich had. There were 50 votes in Florida. You

might have heard about New Hampshire and people looked at the

New Hampshire primary and there are just seven votes you can escape

with. It is important to see that the Della can count -- delicate

count is something republicans are fighting over. I think the tone of

some of the adverts are going to come back and haunt them because if

candidates keep slicing and Spacey each other, they are doing Barack

Obama's job. -- slicing and dicing. The say that was the candidate is

chosen, everyone gets behind them. We must remember that Barack Obama

and Hillary Clinton at battle before. Absolutely. The way that

one can bring up their rivals end... As has happened end earlier

governments, but I do think some of the Republican stalwarts are

concerned about having someone attack capitalism, someone attacked

the right to spend freely and to spend one's own money. We have a

very wealthy candidate who earns his own money and his money is now

looked at suspiciously. It is quite interesting to have had a campaign

with two Mormons running and they have the role of religion being

raised so strongly in American politics. It is probably the first

time that has been so reminiscent of Kennedy's election. The money

issue tied up with politics and religion seems to be something that

is making this a very different election. We should also remember

that the Barack Obama campaign has raised far more than the Mitt

Romney campaign. It has been raised from millions of small, --

contributions. He was someone that hat into the internet with his

campaigning and someone that was really at grassroots organiser in

his youth and came up with a different kind of legal interest in

spreading the word. I think he tapped into that and has kept a

hold of that. We have to recognise that Barack Obama has had many

millions of dollars of donations. It is perhaps because people like

what he is doing but it is also perhaps because they look at as

they were called in the press, the Snow White And the seven dwarfs

other Republican candidates and they do not want to end up with a

bad outcome. Do you think there is a possibility that the voting it --

voting public will react against this kind of full-scale funding?

That they will recognise the way it is skewing politics? There has been

a revolt. We know that at the it tea-party people are interested in

getting back to the people. As you said, the ruling in 2010 had to do

-- to do with campaign financing is still a problem. In our last

election, John McCain who tried to go out there and talk about

spending was caught in a boomerang. In the 21st century, Media, energy

and money are going to be controlling our political

leadership. Do you think there is any possibility that Newt Gingrich

could make back the ground he has lost and may be be the front-

runner? The amazing thing about American politics is that you

should never say never. I think he has lost so much ground that it

will be difficult and the battle over who is the bigger capitalist,

who wasted more American's money, who is the more wicked politician

who does not care from -- care about poor people is something that

the press will be taking up, but this is something that is being

played at -- played out in images. Newt Gingrich is canny and he has

won the South Carolina primary. He is playing on his image, playing on

coming from behind, the dark horse can often when. You mentioned the

tea-party there. Sarah Palin was at one stage seen as the great hope.

She pulled out last autumn. People thought that she was going to be

quite a player in the choosing of the candidates. She has just

disappeared. She will be appear in television in a major TV movie

because we are so interested in what is going on in the election.

HBO is putting out a tell a film looking at the last election. We

hope that all the candidates will be watching this to think about to

the are picking for their vice- president -- vice-president

candidate. Thank you very much. That is where we leave that. We

will be back next week at the usual time. Goodbye.

Where did you get your licence? taxi can now take a family of five

or up the entire Ulster Unionist Assembly team. They are using seats

as fast as bankers are you -- bankers are losing their bonuses.

No one wants to win because they might have to end up going to a

football match. Martin McGuinness says he is prepared -- prepared to