10/05/2017 Politics Scotland


10/05/2017

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Hello and welcome to Politics Scotland.

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South Thanet is still being considered, but there'll be no

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criminal charges following inquiries into Conservative Party election

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And we'll be asking why Scotland's education system

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And here at Westminster, it's a lot quieter than usual

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because the politicains are all away trying to win their jobs back.

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After examining files from 14 police forces,

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the Crown Prosecution Service said today that whilst

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there was evidence of inaccurate spending returns,

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they don't think it warranted criminal prosecution.

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There must have been a palpable "phew!"

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With me throughout today's programme to discuss this

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and other matters of import is the political

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But first, let's cross to College Green, where our

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Westminster correspondent David Porter is basking in

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What is the reaction to this CPS business? I think you are right,

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Gordon, as far as the Conservatives are concerned, it is palpable

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relief. To some extent, this falls into the category of the story of

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the dog that didn't bite. If it had been the other way round, and we

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were talking about prosecutions this afternoon, that would have been a

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huge dislocation to the Conservatives' election campaign.

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Tomorrow is the deadline for candidates to be selected and to

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make sure their names get on the ballot paper. It would have been

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inconceivable that there had been a number of conservatives facing

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possible prosecution to play any part in that campaign, so the

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Conservatives would have had to parachute candidates in at short

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notice. And it would have meant a real jolt to Theresa May's campaign.

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So far, she has conducted this campaign along the lines of saying

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that it is between her and Jeremy Corbyn, that is the choice people

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have to make, and it is all about trust. If we had had a situation

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where the CPS had said it believed that criminal activity had taken

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place and there was a legal case to answer in the criminal court, that

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would have totally changed the nature of this election campaign. As

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to the reaction of Jeremy Corbyn, to put it mildly, he said he was

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surprised when he commented after the decision came out. Nicola

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Sturgeon of the SNP said the Conservatives still have questions

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to answer about this whole affair. It is worth remembering that their

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wrist still -- there is still one case in South Thanet that police

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have files on and could possibly go to the CPS. It is worth remembering

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that the Conservatives were fined ?70,000 of what went on in the 20

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15th election by the Electoral Commission. That was a civil fine, a

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record for a political party. The CPS have decided that it does not

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meet the threshold for a criminal prosecution. South Thanet, as I

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understand it, the papers went in late. On the basis of the case there

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is the same as in the other areas, presumably we can expect no

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prosecution there either, because it would be inconsistent. Common-sense

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would indicate that there was some precedent. What happened in one

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constituency may be different from what happened in another. In 2015,

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the Conservatives said their battle buses out in marginal

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constituencies, the vast majority of which they won in the 2015 election,

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and there was some confusion, let's put it that way, about the way that

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expenses were totalled up, whether they were local or national. There

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are very strict rules governing what is local and what is national.

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Another point to remember is that police forces were given extra time

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to look at the cases they had before them and collect evidence. It may

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well just be that in the case of Kent, they are a little behind the

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other forces. South Thanet is interesting because it is the seat

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which Nigel Farage fought, and the Conservatives were extremely

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relieved to defeat him. We may well have a case where those files from

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Kent could go to the CPS and could be decided on within the next couple

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of weeks, which of course, would fall within the election period. OK,

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David. Thanks for that. We will see you later on in the programme if you

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are not bound to a crisp by then! Alf, for you make of this? It is

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difficult for the opposition parties because they cannot challenge it

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without looking like they are challenging the judiciary rather

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than the Conservatives. The fact that the CPS have said there is no

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case in almost all but one means there is not much they can do about

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it other than keep a close eye on the number of as is and hotel rooms

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that are being built around the country over the next four weeks. It

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is a big boost for the Tories, isn't it? Because that air of sleaze was

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hanging over the campaign, and it's now gone. Not just that, if they had

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said there was a case to answer, there would be a number of seats

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where they would struggle to put up a candidate. It was obviously a huge

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relief to them, but it doesn't answer the deeper question of how

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parties actually go about running elections, how they spend money, get

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round the rules, either by omission or consciously, and that's probably

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an area that has to be looked at again, because it's become a much

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more televisual experience, fighting elections, and things like battle

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buses and shock troops into marginal seats is part of the game. It will

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be an ongoing issue, I think, given the levels at which they are allowed

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to spend within the rules. What is your general impression of the

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things so far? Pretty grim. What do you mean? The campaign? Yes. I just

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sense that every commitment has attached to it a tax pledge as to

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how they will raise the money. There is no real debate about the bigger

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issues, like the education issue that we'll be talking about in a

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little while. There's no kind of root and branch depth of debate

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about that. It's all just seems to be overly static and staged, every

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day a different subject, a different promise, not much engagement across

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the parties. The Prime Minister is stepping back from doing leaders'

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debates, sitting on the sofa at the One Show. From her point of view,

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does it look like that is what she wants, steady, stable campaigning

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for a steady, stable result? You are using the two keywords of their

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campaign - steady and stable. Is there anything Labour can do to

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disrupt that? What they seem to be doing in a number of those seats

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with a majority of under 5000, where they are struggling, it seems a lot

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of the candidates are playing a very local campaign and ignoring the

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noise about whether Jeremy Corbyn has got it or not on the national

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stage. We will talk about Scotland later, but first...

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The Education Secretary, John Swinney, has made a statement

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to MSPs on literacy levels in Scottish schools.

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Research published yesterday by the Scottish Government

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suggests that children's writing performance has slipped

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A cross-section of children in Primary 4, Primary 7

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and the second year of secondary school were assessed

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The most significant fall in writing standards was amongst second years.

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Swinney outlined some of the key areas where the education

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We need to get better tracking the progress of each pupil over the

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course their career. This requirement has meant we had not

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been as effective as we need to be in identifying where young people

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may need additional support. We need to be clearer about the standards

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expected in our classrooms. This is meant teachers are not always been

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certain about what is required to meet each curriculum for excellence

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level in literacy, numeracy and across the curriculum areas. Too

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much well-meaning but overbearing guidance has been produced

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nationally, locally and sometimes in schools themselves, which has

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created too much clutter in the curriculum and can divert time from

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teaching and learning. We need to ensure literacy skills are fully

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embedded across the curriculum. Inspection evidence found that the

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potential impact of establishing literacy, numeracy and health and

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well-being as areas as priorities for teachers has not been fully

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realised. While the statistics are disappointed, we published data in

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December 2016 based on teacher judgment demonstrating that 84% of

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pupils in Scotland achieved the required level by the end of S3.

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Whilst the survey helps identify emerging issues, the national

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improvement framework provides us with the data allows us to target

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improvement in specific parts of Scotland. There will be many parents

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across Scotland who see the statistics as nothing short of

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shameful, most especially those which reflect the persistence of the

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attainment gap, the decline in literacy skills, and those who are

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not meeting the required standards in writing at all. Could I ask the

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Cabinet Secretary, does he agree with some of the teachers who have

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responded to the education committee's call for evidence who

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psyched that falling teacher numbers and additional classroom bureaucracy

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are the pressures that prevent -- who state that falling teacher

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numbers... Does he agree with a literacy expert who says there is a

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lack of focus to ensure teachers have a depth of knowledge in maths

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and literacy, and that teacher training is falling short in this

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area? And does he now accepts that a wide range of data is now essential

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if we are to effectively measure the curriculum for excellence and it was

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a mistake to move Scotland from other measurements given their

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ability to provide better quality evidence? The Cabinet Secretary says

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that today's statistics confront the case for reform, but they confirmed

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the case against his Government's ten year stewardship of education.

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He says he can't turn it round overnight. His Government has had

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ten years. A generation of children have passed through school while

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they were getting up to speed. How many years does he need? In those

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ten years, we have lost over 4000 teachers from our schools, over 1000

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support staff, the spend per pupil has fallen and class sizes have

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grown to some of the biggest in the developed world. The Cabinet

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Secretary promises clear lines of sight, new benchmarks and a new

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framework on the improvement hub - when is he going to promise as more

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teachers with more support and more resources to let them do the job

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they love and want to do? Isn't that the fundamental reform we need now?

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Thank you. As has been mentioned, the core issue is that there are far

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fewer staff in our schools than a decade ago, and it will be cold

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comfort to teachers to hear from the Cabinet Secretary that there are

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slightly more than there were a year ago, but there are 4000 fewer than

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there were a decade ago. No governance review will change the

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core issue. Those delivering education in Scotland weren't asking

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for the review. They want their cut colleagues back. We have lost a

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third of school librarians, so I would ask the Cabinet Secretary,

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what impact does he think that 100 lost librarians have had on reading

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and writing levels? I will do my best to try to ensure that we raise

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the appreciation and understanding of the value of library services in

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our schools through the strategy that I will take forward, and I will

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work with local authorities to try to gain their participation. I thank

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the Cabinet Secretary for early side of his statement. These results

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confirm that pupils and teachers are paying a heavy price after ten years

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of this SNP Government. Teachers have condemned inconsistencies and

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changes that have issued forth, more than 1000 pages of evidence to be

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considered tomorrow demonstrate that perfectly. What confidence can there

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be that this secretary has got it right this time? We will continue on

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the relentless agenda I have set out so that we can liberate teachers to

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concentrate on what we need them too, which is learning and teaching.

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Well, the problem is that the statistics are going in the opposite

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direction that the ministers would want it to. The First Minister

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herself has said this is the one thing she wants to be judged on and

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it isn't going well. I think all parties in a sense they're a bit of

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the blame because you don't make curriculum better just by calling it

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a curriculum for excellence, attaching that word to it. It's got

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to be in the daily teaching and learning that goes on in classrooms

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between the teachers and students. It's about the quality of that

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relationship and the numbers are showing that it's going in

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absolutely the wrong direction. That curriculum for excellence was a

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labour- Liberal Democrat idea. Whatever has happened has nothing to

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do with curriculum of excellent, but it seems that it has got something

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to do with it? There are number of educational experts have said that

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the way it has been introduced and delivered has diminished some

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importance of some skill issues. The other thing about this survey is

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that is the last one because they aren't going to do any more which

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means it suggests they don't like what they are finding. One has some

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sympathy for John Swinney because although the opposition are saying

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that the SNP have been in power for ten years, John Swinney has been

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doing it for less than a year, and Nicola Sturgeon has staked her claim

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on it. I'm not sure that there is anything that could instantaneously

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start turning things around. Della mac there's a bigger backdrop that

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these children are being taught in the digital environment. The way

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they absorb knowledge outside school is more through tablets and phones.

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He wants more power and money to headteachers than before. They want

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more testing at more stages because they want hard evidence. They've

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been trying to do this for years. I served on the MacCormack committee

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with the principle of Stirling University looking at teacher

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employment and the role of head teachers. Nothing came of it. We got

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a rapport together. Some people liked it, some people didn't, but

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nothing happened to it and it disappeared down a black hole mac.

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nothing happened to it and it disappeared down a black hole.

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Lets Joynson MSP. -- let's join some MFP is.

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Let's talk about the fact that there will be no prosecutions for

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Conservative MPs over that bus incident. There's still one case

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outstanding as it currently stands, so they are still not off the hook

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and it will be an election issue, I would imagine. James Kelly, what do

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you think? What is clear from this, leaving the decision from the CPS,

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the Tories are being bankrolled by big business. The focus here is that

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many people who are donating to the Labour Party... I'm sorry, I was

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asking you about your opinion on the lack of prosecution for Conservative

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MPs over electoral funding, not your funding. It doesn't get away from

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the issues, we want a Government that many not for the few and that's

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what Labour be focusing on. Mark, standing beside you. What is your

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reaction to this? Do you have to take a view of the CPS as an

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independent body? Yes. But it's disappointing. There is a wider

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crisis within the Tory party. We are seeing terrible comments on Facebook

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from a number of elected Tory MPs. I feel there is an ethical crisis

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there. What do you make of this? It now seems to me that parties can

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flood that constituency with bus-loads of people, and then charge

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it to a campaign. It's not what I would understand as a local

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campaign, are you saying that irrespective of the lack of

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prosecutions, there is an ethical issue about spending? Flooding

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constituency with workers from your campaign can make a difference. It

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definitely made a difference in the election two years ago. Liz Smith,

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I'm not ignoring you, I was leaving you to last because it's your party

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that is in the dock. Do you understand the point average Scot is

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making, let's take it that the CPS... Claiming it's part of the

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national campaign which clearly benefits the local and to... There

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are ethical issues about elections. You were fined ?75,000. Absolutely,

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we need to learn lessons from this. I imagine you have no interest in

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changing the subject from that to talking about the SNP's record on

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education. I think I've spoken out in the last 24-48 hours on the SNP's

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record of education when it comes to the disappointing figures from the

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SS LN about literacy. We've heard from trainees, new and

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existing teachers. Do we have to say now, do you think that there is a

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problem with the curriculum for excellence, or is it an

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extraordinary coincidence that the decline in standards, in Scotland's

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schools seems to chronologically go together with the introduction for

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Curriculum For Excellence. I think it's to do with delivery issues. If

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I go to one of the teachers giving evidence this morning, he summed it

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up beautifully. He says if you had to define it, I'm not sure how you

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would do that. You would welcome the direction the John Swinney is going

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in, more testing in schools, bypassing local authorities. I want

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to separate out two issues there. Changing the school system to allow

:23:37.:23:40.

headteachers to have a greater say over how they run their schools is

:23:41.:23:46.

one, but when it comes to the organisation of this curriculum, we

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are not bound by the redundant sheets of paper and guidance that

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John Swinney has had to get rid of. The big picture here is that this is

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the issue most important to you and these figures, after ten years of

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the SNP in Government are pretty shocking, aren't they? I think these

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figures confirm what we already know about the Pisa results... You can't

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just say that. I think what you need to be careful to do is look at what

:24:31.:24:35.

is happening between P7 and S2. That's where we need to focus. This

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extract standards across Scotland nationally so people have a better

:24:42.:24:45.

understanding of standards... The point I'm making and you have to

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accept this is that under the SNP, the education system, which you see

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is the most important things you, apart from the constitution has got

:24:57.:25:06.

worse. The education is a vital... You can't point to any progress, can

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you. We've got record figures in positive destinations so it's not

:25:15.:25:18.

all doom and gloom. Going down that track is a dangerous narrative we've

:25:19.:25:25.

got people working hard in classrooms. We need to be careful

:25:26.:25:28.

about the language and narrative. It's not all doom and gloom...

:25:29.:25:31.

Please don't use the excuse of... You disagree with the direction John

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Swinney is going in. You think that's wrong? I think the critical

:25:58.:26:04.

issue here is funding. The SNP have taken 1.5 billion pounds out of

:26:05.:26:12.

cancel funds -- council funds, which means less vacancies. Can I ask you

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the question on funding? Why is that the school system in England has

:26:23.:26:32.

come from well behind the Scottish system and has now overtaken it when

:26:33.:26:38.

they spend something between 10-15% less on schools in England than in

:26:39.:26:42.

Scotland? You can't get away from the fact if you've got less teachers

:26:43.:26:49.

and support staff in schools... The English have done it and they are

:26:50.:26:53.

doing better than we are. That's a funding issue and that's something

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the S and P -- SNP can't get away from. It doesn't seem to matter to

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you that the evidence in England's is the opposite from what you are

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saying. You look at how best to service the schools, but ultimately

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if you're going to take 1.5 billion pounds out of public services that's

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what will suffer. Tavish Scott,, what do you think England have

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called up and overtaken us I can't just be about funding. They have

:27:43.:27:49.

academy schools, autonomy, a different structure, and Gordon, as

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you well know, they always have. It's important to remember... You

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can't just say that. You can! Pisa makes up the figures. Are you

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wanting an Ofsted inspection regime like their? Highly expensive and

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aggressive. There are profound differences between how you teach. I

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know fully well what you are describing, but what I am suggesting

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to you is that the changes we argue for here are two separate the

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functions of education between the expected on one hand and the policy

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on the other hand which has produced 20,000 pages of guidance, the

:28:53.:29:06.

bureaucracy... Are there any practical suggestions as to what

:29:07.:29:10.

John Swinney could do that would have an effect on this quite

:29:11.:29:16.

quickly? We made one rack to cool suggestion which was invented to the

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budget negotiations which was ?160 million coming into councils. --

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practical suggestions John Swinney wants to fund schools while avoiding

:29:38.:29:48.

councils. Headteachers they wanted the managing ring fenced budgets,

:29:49.:29:52.

they want to lead their schools and be able to do that, working in

:29:53.:29:58.

school clusters. We're running out of time, in one sentence describe

:29:59.:30:06.

what this campaign is going to be about the year your party. One

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sentence for the Liberal Democrats, it's about representing you

:30:16.:30:18.

correctly and properly so you have a real champion so we don't end up in

:30:19.:30:27.

endless constitutional navel-gazing over independence. Do we need a

:30:28.:30:37.

sentence for a new? -- from you? Get Patrick Harvie in to join Caroline

:30:38.:30:43.

Lucas who does wonderful job in Westminster. Stop a Tory third term

:30:44.:30:53.

and send a message to Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP that we don't

:30:54.:30:57.

want a second independence referendum. Continued revival in

:30:58.:31:05.

Scotland in sharing that the Conservatives have more MPs. You

:31:06.:31:10.

forgot to say to stop another independence referendum!

:31:11.:31:16.

I'm off message! Sending MPs from Scotland to stand up in Westminster

:31:17.:31:26.

against Theresa May and the Conservatives' austerity agenda. A

:31:27.:31:31.

lovely shot of you altogether there! Thank you for joining us.

:31:32.:31:32.

MSPs have backed controversial legislation to integrate

:31:33.:31:33.

the British Transport Police with Police Scotland.

:31:34.:31:35.

66 MSPs voted in favour of the Bill, with 44 against it.

:31:36.:31:38.

But among the concerns heard at last evening's Holyrood debate

:31:39.:31:41.

They've cited fears about passenger safety, staff career prospects,

:31:42.:31:48.

The Transport Minister Humza Yousaf tried to offer

:31:49.:31:51.

The aim in this bill is to establish a framework using these newly

:31:52.:32:05.

devolved powers to ensure that railway policing in Scotland is

:32:06.:32:11.

accountable to the people of Scotland. An important

:32:12.:32:16.

recommendation in the report is one seeking an assurance that the terms,

:32:17.:32:24.

conditions, benefits and pensions of PTP officers and staff will not be

:32:25.:32:28.

adversely affected on transferring to Police Scotland. I am happy to

:32:29.:32:32.

give that assurance today. The Scottish Government has listened

:32:33.:32:39.

closely to the issues raised and has offered a triple lock guarantee that

:32:40.:32:43.

secures jobs, pay and pensions through the course of integration.

:32:44.:32:48.

Should integration proceed, Police Scotland intends to maintain a

:32:49.:32:54.

specialist railway policing function within its broader structure. The

:32:55.:32:59.

policy memorandum states that this approach will retain the specialist

:33:00.:33:04.

skills, knowledge and experience that BT P officers and staff have

:33:05.:33:13.

built. However, retraining BTP officers and staff is largely

:33:14.:33:20.

dependent on whether their current terms, conditions and rights are

:33:21.:33:26.

guaranteed. Those representing BTP officers and staff have not yet been

:33:27.:33:31.

reassured. Clearly, this needs to be urgently resolved. The committee has

:33:32.:33:35.

therefore asked the Scottish Government to provide an update on

:33:36.:33:43.

progress during this debate, and to ensure that terms and conditions

:33:44.:33:51.

will not be adversely affected were integration to proceed. I thank the

:33:52.:33:55.

Cabinet Secretary for his update but remain extremely concerned that this

:33:56.:34:04.

is unresolved. Unlike those on the SNP benches, we recognise there is

:34:05.:34:08.

more than one way to achieve the outcome. The SNP has single-mindedly

:34:09.:34:14.

focused on the integration of BTP into Police Scotland, so much so

:34:15.:34:18.

that it did not bother to include alternative approaches in the

:34:19.:34:21.

consultation launched last summer. The paper sets out three procedures,

:34:22.:34:29.

including breaking up the BTP and absorbing its Scottish operations

:34:30.:34:35.

into Police Scotland, but in the BTA's experienced and professional

:34:36.:34:38.

opinion, this option could result in confusion over who would record and

:34:39.:34:42.

investigate crimes, risk compromising the joined up policing

:34:43.:34:47.

of railways and cross-border efforts to combat terrorism and extremism,

:34:48.:34:53.

all serious issues, all with serious implications. I would like to extend

:34:54.:34:57.

my thanks to the committee for the evidence sessions they have held,

:34:58.:35:01.

and as a substitute member, I was able to take part in the session

:35:02.:35:06.

with railway operators. It was the sessions that highlighted the number

:35:07.:35:09.

of concerns regarding this bill that has helped us reach our position

:35:10.:35:14.

today, and Scottish Labour will not be supporting the general principles

:35:15.:35:19.

of this bill. There is a division amongst members and during the

:35:20.:35:23.

course of this afternoon, I hope the Government will listen to these

:35:24.:35:26.

concerns, a tree to withdraw the bill, and work with interested

:35:27.:35:29.

parties and bodies to look at the full range of options available for

:35:30.:35:33.

the future of railway policing in Scotland. We have had responses from

:35:34.:35:40.

RMT today opposing the bill and raising significant concerns about

:35:41.:35:43.

Bieber ocean of specialised skills and expertise and the risks to

:35:44.:35:48.

safety and security. It has been argued we are here today as a result

:35:49.:35:51.

of the Smith Commission but it is worth remembering what was agreed to

:35:52.:35:56.

within the Smith Commission, which was for the vouchers are pretty bad

:35:57.:36:01.

but the gallon -- which was for the functions of the police service in

:36:02.:36:05.

Scotland to remain a devolved matter. -- to be a devolved matter.

:36:06.:36:11.

There has been some ill informed comment about the response to

:36:12.:36:21.

terrorism. It will be an entirely coordinated situation while this

:36:22.:36:24.

proposal to go ahead. The issue of timing. Even worth full integration

:36:25.:36:32.

of BTP felt to be the most sensible and logical route to take, and most

:36:33.:36:36.

witnesses did not, it can scarcely be claimed by any other than its

:36:37.:36:41.

most ardent supporters that this is an ideal time to contemplate such a

:36:42.:36:45.

move. Chronic levels of structural debt, a failed IT project, and

:36:46.:36:54.

morale that could certainly be better. Surely only Police

:36:55.:36:58.

Scotland's worst enemy could see this as an opportune moment have

:36:59.:37:01.

voiced by the change of the organisation. I remain open to being

:37:02.:37:09.

persuaded about the concerns I have set out, but if they are not

:37:10.:37:14.

addressed, Scottish Lib Dems will be unable to support the passing of

:37:15.:37:15.

this bill. Alf, this integration proposal, what

:37:16.:37:24.

do you make of it? It is part of a bigger picture, I think, isn't it?

:37:25.:37:30.

In a number of areas, the SNP Government progressively over ten

:37:31.:37:33.

years has sought to centralise quite a lot of things. They just recently

:37:34.:37:39.

had a rather bizarre and ultimately unsuccessful attempt at putting the

:37:40.:37:46.

two enterprise agencies together in one body, and then decided it wasn't

:37:47.:37:54.

a good idea after all. Whether it is a good idea for British Transport

:37:55.:37:59.

Police, I'm no great expert on policing structures, but it has been

:38:00.:38:04.

a separate entity. It is not my experience that Police Scotland as a

:38:05.:38:11.

unified police force has been and are now Lloyd express -- has been a

:38:12.:38:19.

complete success. You wonder what instinctively drives all of this on.

:38:20.:38:24.

On the other hand, people on the outside in this day and age will

:38:25.:38:29.

say, sorry, why do you have to have a special police force for the

:38:30.:38:33.

railways? Why not for the motorways? I doubt one person in ten or 100

:38:34.:38:39.

knows there is a separate police force for transport, for the

:38:40.:38:43.

railways. It is pretty decent Eric territory for most people, but it

:38:44.:38:48.

speaks to a kind of guiding principle when it comes to changing

:38:49.:38:55.

structures. The structural point I suppose that could be argued is that

:38:56.:38:59.

once they put in place Police Scotland and you didn't have

:39:00.:39:03.

regional police forces, I'm assuming that transport police has to be

:39:04.:39:06.

national. So you now have a national police force and you could put the

:39:07.:39:10.

national transport police into that, which you didn't have before. There

:39:11.:39:17.

are then legacy issues about entitlements and pensions and how

:39:18.:39:19.

that is integrated into the new structure. As we have seen in the

:39:20.:39:23.

past, that can cause problems as well, in the longer term. Back to

:39:24.:39:27.

the election, what do you think it will be about in the next few weeks?

:39:28.:39:32.

In Scotland, it is an odd one with general elections, because all that

:39:33.:39:36.

stuff we were talking about regarding education is technically

:39:37.:39:41.

irrelevant to this election. It is not strictly speaking relevant in

:39:42.:39:43.

the sense that it is a devolved issue. I think they're going to make

:39:44.:39:49.

big pictures about things like education, the future of the health

:39:50.:39:52.

service, and they will come and go as the issue of the day, but the

:39:53.:39:58.

bigger battle in Scotland really is about the extent to which that

:39:59.:40:03.

extraordinary result two years ago, where the SNP got 50% of the vote

:40:04.:40:10.

and all but three of the MPs, how much retrenchment back from that

:40:11.:40:15.

there will be because of this recent surge in support for the Tories in

:40:16.:40:21.

Scotland. Some of us are old enough to remember when Tories were still

:40:22.:40:27.

quite popular in Scotland, and even Glasgow City Council had progressive

:40:28.:40:33.

local Tories who were quite a major force. In the historical sense, it's

:40:34.:40:41.

not that unusual, but it is unusual, given the dog years after Thatcher's

:40:42.:40:45.

arrival in power and the Tories almost being wiped off the electoral

:40:46.:40:51.

map. Briefly, can you see Labour... If this is really about

:40:52.:40:54.

independence, and it seems to be this make -- to some extent a proxy

:40:55.:41:07.

for it, is there anything that Labour or the Lib Dems can do to

:41:08.:41:11.

steal that away from the Tories? I think both Labour and the Lib Dems

:41:12.:41:16.

might pick up the odd seat here and there. Labour might hold the one

:41:17.:41:21.

they've got, the Lib Dems might hold the one they have in the islands.

:41:22.:41:25.

Apart from that, it will be marginal change, I think, and the big battle

:41:26.:41:36.

will be how far this search, whether tactical or whatever, -- how this

:41:37.:41:43.

surge for the Tories, how far it goes.

:41:44.:41:47.

Let's get some final thoughts from Alf Young.

:41:48.:41:52.

Back to David. What do you think the big themes will be? We are in

:41:53.:41:59.

political no man's land. All the parties now have got into the habit

:42:00.:42:03.

of having campaign launches, and then they have manifesto launches.

:42:04.:42:09.

We have had a campaign launched this week, the manifestos next week. We

:42:10.:42:14.

are getting individual policies but not the full picture and it is only

:42:15.:42:17.

when we see the full picture and we can go through it and say, money you

:42:18.:42:22.

want to spend on this you have already said he will race from that,

:42:23.:42:26.

that will give us more information. That will come next week, but I

:42:27.:42:30.

think without a shadow of a doubt the election down here is very much

:42:31.:42:36.

being framed with Brexit in mind, and I think, quite frankly, it will

:42:37.:42:41.

come down to who the electorate feel best represent them in the Brexit

:42:42.:42:45.

negotiations - Theresa May or Jeremy Corbyn. Just casting an eye over the

:42:46.:42:51.

local election results in England last week, what became very apparent

:42:52.:42:58.

is that the Ukip vote collapsed, and by and large, the Ukip vote in

:42:59.:43:02.

England went across to the Conservatives. What had happened

:43:03.:43:05.

previously, and certainly in previous elections, is that

:43:06.:43:08.

supporters who had perhaps gone from Labour to Ukip, it now appears that

:43:09.:43:16.

Ukip supporters, if local elections are to be believed, are going back

:43:17.:43:21.

to the Conservatives. The Conservatives are very bullish,

:43:22.:43:25.

trying to talk down any speculation of a landslide. They say they will

:43:26.:43:28.

be fighting for every seat. You only have to see whether Prime Minister

:43:29.:43:33.

is going. They are putting a lot of effort in the east and West Midlands

:43:34.:43:37.

in England, which has a clutch of marginal seats. Frankly, that is

:43:38.:43:43.

where UK elections are always won or lost, in those marginal seats.

:43:44.:43:47.

Speaking to Labour people, they are very downbeat at the moment. No one

:43:48.:43:52.

I have spoken to from any party thinks that Labour will win this

:43:53.:43:56.

election. Speaking to Labour people, a lot of them are very downcast and

:43:57.:44:00.

think it could be a very bad day for them on the 8th of June. Yeah, one

:44:01.:44:08.

of the things that makes this more surreal is that you were saying to

:44:09.:44:13.

some extent this will be about Brexit and which version of it you

:44:14.:44:18.

want. Of course, the Government hasn't made it entirely clear

:44:19.:44:22.

exactly what it is it wants to negotiate for. Know, and that is

:44:23.:44:26.

incredibly frustrating from a journalistic point of view, but also

:44:27.:44:30.

from the point of view of the electorate. It is one of those

:44:31.:44:34.

campaigns were, by and large, the politicians are not out meeting the

:44:35.:44:39.

electorate. We are really quite constrained in the opportunities we

:44:40.:44:42.

get to interview senior politicians, so from that point of view, it is

:44:43.:44:46.

very frustrating. But I think perhaps one of the reasons we are

:44:47.:44:50.

not getting more information is because the Government at the

:44:51.:44:53.

moment, if it is re-elected, does not know quite how it is going to

:44:54.:44:57.

negotiate this. It says it wants to do X, Y and Z, but you might find

:44:58.:45:06.

that the European community, when it comes back after the election, says,

:45:07.:45:11.

you may want that, but we want other things which are far more important

:45:12.:45:15.

to us. Whoever wins, there will be a very long, protracted and tough

:45:16.:45:21.

negotiation about the ghosts -- about Brexit. We are having an

:45:22.:45:25.

election about a subject we have no idea how the endgame is going to

:45:26.:45:32.

apply. -- is going to play out. Thank you, David. Alf, the other

:45:33.:45:36.

issue that arises is, do you agree that this will be about Brexit? At

:45:37.:45:42.

least down south? Or will it become about other things by default? It's

:45:43.:45:52.

bound to be about Brexit to a degree, but the problem about doing

:45:53.:45:59.

that is that there is so little that we know about negotiations to come.

:46:00.:46:11.

Theresa May's favourite words are strong and stable, I'll stick up the

:46:12.:46:17.

country. Would you trust that? It will come up north and south of the

:46:18.:46:25.

border. This stories today about GPs in European countries who are

:46:26.:46:28.

staying here who will probably be able to stay. It won't all be about

:46:29.:46:38.

that. Will it be about tax and spending? Well, if it's conducted in

:46:39.:46:43.

the way that we think, money for education, more money for the health

:46:44.:46:48.

service and so on, another raid on corporate taxation, what will we put

:46:49.:46:57.

it back up to? Set that rate against what Macron might do in France, or

:46:58.:47:03.

what Trump finally does in America with corporate taxation, all of the

:47:04.:47:15.

companies we depend on in our economies are global, so they will

:47:16.:47:20.

decide where they stay and where they pay their tax. I'm finding my

:47:21.:47:27.

appetite for more of the same, diminishing with the day. We have

:47:28.:47:30.

only started. That's a bit of a worry. Can you see a big Corbyn

:47:31.:47:37.

breakthrough? Note. I don't see what the basis of that would be. He had a

:47:38.:47:44.

chance yesterday to say we are not going to seek to stay in afterwards

:47:45.:47:53.

and he fudged it. Thank you, Alf. We will be back at the weekend with

:47:54.:47:56.

Sunday politics. See you then. Because you're the one

:47:57.:48:05.

that passes the money across. This is the third time your daughter

:48:06.:48:14.

has being trafficked.

:48:15.:48:19.

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