15/06/2016 Politics Scotland

Good afternoon and welcome to Politics Scotland.

Nicola Sturgeon warns Brexit could mean a Tory takeover -

Leave campaigners say it's "Project McFear".

MSPs will debate how to support jobs in the oil and gas industry.

And here at Westminster, MPs prepare to return to constituencies to

prepare for that EU referendum. We will be talking to both sides in the

argument. Nicola Sturgeon has provoked fierce

controversy as she warned that a vote to leave the EU could lead

to cuts in Scottish spending, jobs Jim Sillars, the former SNP deputy

leader, said she was resorting Our political editor, Brian Taylor,

joins me from Holyrood. Brian, what's behind

the First Minister's argument? It is intriguing because you have a

series of interlinking political arguments going on. We had George

Osborne, the Chancellor, standing alongside Alistair Darling, Mr

Osborne sane economic forecasts suggesting there will be a ?20

billion cut to Britain's economy as a result of Brexit. He says it will

mean anonymity budget, taxes up, spending down. Nicola Sturgeon

Baxter gloomy prognosis as a consequence of Brexit but says it

wouldn't be George Osborne in a position to do that. She says a

Britain leaves the EU in a referendum, David Cameron would have

to go, George Osborne with him and that the Sturgeon said it would be

replaced, the replacements would be Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, to the

right of the Conservative Party. She said there would be enthusiastic

cuts in spending, put in by the UK Government with an impact in

Scotland. That raises concerns about workers's writes, but public

spending and redhead Scotland hard. If you don't want to come out of the

EU and lose the benefits of the market, if you don't want to see

that political direction, it is important to bode remain in big

numbers. If we do that here, we can help win that case across the UK.

Nicola is a great First Minister, but I am disappointed that she is

now adopting the same tactic as Cameron a, which is trying to drive

people into the remain aside out of unjustified fear. You heard Jim

Sellers there, who was of a former Conservative MSP. Internationalist

from the left, you have a conservative from the right, both

arguing for leave, are growing Scotland and the UK with the taken

charge of their own destiny, arguing new powers would accrue to Scotland,

dismissed by the other side. Perhaps an extra nation about what Nicola

Sturgeon is attempting to do. It is about the Tories, but it is trying

to get the argument of them, by talking about the Conservatives, she

is trying to put a dog whistle to those not conservative, saying to

them, you don't trust George Osborne, I don't trust them either.

She is trying to say that you can be sceptical about George Osborne, you

can be sceptical about David Cameron, but that doesn't mean you

should go necessarily into the league camp. It is a remain pitch

aimed at those who are not conservative, who are

anti-Conservative, lost the sisters -- who are suspicious.

My guest for today is the political commentator Hamish Macdonell.

This is getting closer than anyone believed. What is interesting about

today's events is how the messages have changed, or how the way the

today's events is how the messages message has been put out. If you

remember back to the start, Nicola Sturgeon's message was, let's have a

positive campaign, anything is positive and she had a go at the

negative tactics are people on her own site. You will be forgiven as

looking at today and thinking, isn't that negative as well? It is

symptomatic of how the polls have closed, and as they have, and as

there has been more panic spreading within the remain camp, so they have

all seemed to be gone and adopted more negative approaches including

Nicola Sturgeon. Perhaps remember what they called project the works.

There is that. We all know it worked. Nicola Sturgeon may not like

it, but they were on the receiving end, they saw it worked and they

felt had worked on the day after the referendum. The one difference with

the independence referendum is you had all these companies coming out

in the last week, saying we'd have to move out of Scotland. I'm not

sure remain have not left in their armoury. They have fired all the

bullets. We will wait and see. We had Rolls-Royce yesterday saying

that you had to vote for remain a Britain's biggest manufacturer. And

then there was JCB doing the opposite last week. With all this,

the businesses have already declared. We've seen all of them

declare, there will be one or two to come. It has been a long campaign, I

haven't kept touch with which businesses are on which side. Have

you? No, but they will be hoping for a lot of big multinational companies

who might actually be understandably rather reluctant to commit, but they

will want them to come out. We will see that and something else, there

has to be something left that Remain has, in the sense we have the barrel

in the days before the referendum. They must have something in their

armoury. We will be back with you in a moment.

Earlier this afternoon the Labour Party led

the debate in the chamber, calling for renewed

action to support jobs in the oil and gas industry.

Labour's finance spokesperson, Jackie Baillie, started the debate.

The Scottish economy is facing an insurgent future. Over the past

week, several respected organisations have cast doubt on

Scotland's Pross backs for economic growth in the coming year. I hope

they are wrong -- prospects. Hope is simply not enough. We need action,

not complacency. The instant viewing Scottish item has downgraded its

forecast for GDP growth the 2016 to 1.2%, and they note the continued

gap between Scottish and UK growth. What they also tell us is that the

gap is growing and the difference has been much larger than in

previous years. This followed comments by the Scottish

Government's own chief economist, highlighting the pace of growth in

Scotland last year at 1.9% was significantly below that of 2014,

which grew at a rate of 2.7%. Today there is a suggestion coming from

respected economists that we might even be on the very brink of a

recession. Not something any of us would want to see. A slowdown in

growth, underpinned some of the recent increases in unemployment and

drops in employment, figures published today show that there's

been a drop in employment levels in published today show that there's

Scotland, the only area of the UK to register the fall. We must not allow

this to develop into a trend, and meanwhile, construction and

manufacturing, oil and gas, as you would expect, have all reported

reduced activity and business optimism has plummeted. Indeed.

In the interests of balance, which you welcome in those same figures

the 11,000 new people who got jobs? I always welcome good news, but the

thing that troubles me is the Cabinet secretary only wants to talk

about the small things that are good and doesn't recognise the overall

picture, because unless we recognise that overall picture, we won't

intervene appropriately to stop the economy falling into recession. It

is that serious. The Bank of Scotland published on Monday

confirmed that the private sector in Scotland contract it in May,

Gloucester difference from April to May may indeed be slight, it is a

worrying sign of overall contraction. I urge the government

to bring a sharper, more urgent focus to their efforts to grow the

economy. If we are to avoid some of the very legitimate concerns about a

recession and unemployment increasingly becoming a reality. If

they do so, they will have the full support of this side of the chamber.

And of course oil and gas are critically important sectors of our

economy, an industry we all support with highly skilled workers that

work in challenging conditions. But there is no doubt be oil prices has

had a devastating impact. Give way. As you mentioned oil and gas, could

you clarify for those who wrote the Labour Party seeking to draw

attention to the confusion, her colleague suggested the Labour Party

are against fossil fuels, Jackie Baillie suggesting the Labour Party

are in favour. When will they make up their minds? There's no confusion

on our part, I'm happy to explain in words of once the ball to Murdo

Fraser as I see what the Labour Party position is. We are in favour

of a balanced energy mix, we want to move to a low carbon economy, I hope

we all share this aspiration. I have to say to you, oil and gas are

important to our economy, we recognise that. There are 2.6

million people in employment in Scotland, close to a record high and

an increase of 140,000 since 2010. The labour market statistics

illustrate we can't be complacent and I agree with Jackie Baillie, we

face headwinds in economic troubles. We will publicise a new market

strategy to ensure everyone has skills and opportunities to gain

well paid and secure employment. We deliver 25,000 apprenticeships last

year and are committed to provide 30000 by 2020, helping young people

to get skills and training to get into work.

We will now work with schools to inspire more young people into

science, technology, engineering and maths to get them the skills they

need. We will make sure people who are unemployed get training to get

back into jobs. Training is essential, both of those nearest the

labour market and those who faced barriers. 50,000 training places

have been delivered, and a further 11,650 places will be provided this

year. Two weeks ago, I had to some of other concerns, pointing to data

how certain sectors were struggling. What is concerning is a growing

economic gap between our performance and Scotland and the rest of the UK.

As Jackie Baillie said, we have new data today with the employment rate

in Scotland now down below the UK average, and a warning, a stark

warning from a well respected economic body that our economy is

floating with recession. We had new output figures for the conception

industry show activity in the private sector fell over the 12

months to March 2016 to its lowest level since 1988. The Scottish

building Federation and property Federation in response highlighted

the government changes to empty property rates for industrial

property as a potential cause of the slump in bud. Last year the Scottish

Conservatives warned these changes, which would bring empty industrial

properties within the remit of business rates, would lead to a

shrinkage in the supply of commercial and industrial premises

available, and halt the construction of spec that of the elements. It

appears these fears are already being realised. It illustrates how

the policies of the Scottish Government have a detrimental impact

on the opportunity the Scottish economic growth and Scotland's

economic reforms. And we'll be back to hear more from

that debate a little later. Let's cross to the Garden

Lobby in Parliament. We have Miller Smith -- Murdo

Fraser, Colin Smith. We heard the labour saying everything is awful,

but what precisely is it you are proposing to do? Today's debate,

Labour put forward a number of constructive proposals to boost oil

and gas industries. It will have seen a loss of 120,000 jobs by this

year. This causes the economy to do badly. That's why we put forward

their proposals. So far, that has only helped 100 people, and we need

more action from the government. Labour have been positive. Your

answer to the crisis in the oil and gas industry is to have a review of

a training programme? Not at all, we put forward a proposals. Most

proposals, because we recognise if we have to improve the economy, we

need to regenerate the oil and gas industry and put back those jobs.

The government have been complacent by refusing to face up to those

problems. How is a summit with trade union supposed to do anything? It is

about bringing everyone together to sort out those solutions. That's why

a number of people -- you are proposing a talking shop? That is

not what the motion is. The reality is, people need to work together to

find solutions to rebuild the economy. The Labour market figures

have shown employment in Scotland has fallen by 40 8000. It is the

only part of the UK that has seen that -- 40 8000. Do you have any

ideas about what could be done about the oil and gas industry which you

think of better than what Colin Smith has said? We have done a

number of things. We have but 12 noon pounds into a training fund, we

are working to create jobs -- ?12 million. We are calling on the UK

Government to move forward with a loan guarantee, which they haven't

moved forward on. There are issues with a number of job losses, more

moved forward on. There are issues than 100,000 jobs. That is a

consequence of the state of the industry and the drop in oil price.

It is often the labour market statistics which have fallen... I'm

not clear what you are proposing to do apart from asking. You have told

us you asked the British government to do something, but you've not said

what you will do. We have created the transition training fund,

invested ?12 million to work with people who are facing difficulties.

You think a ?12 million training fund is an adequate think which

mocks aye that is what we have done. I am mentioned in multi-million

pounds investment by Siemens to create jobs. Frankly, don't dismiss

the UK Government because when it comes to the North Sea sector, the

UK Government controls most of the tax, all the tax levers, and it is

important they step up to the plate. Murdo Fraser, do you have any

specific ideas? The UK Government is delivering. The UK Government's

response has been praised by the industry, so be in no doubt the tax

changes have been delivered and are providing help. There's one specific

thing that could be done, because the Bank of Scotland report told us

52% of large companies who the opportunities to diversify into

unconventional oil and gas. The opportunities from are currently

outside Scotland because of the Scottish Government's mandatory on

fracking, which prevents us from getting any jobs created. We think

the government should listen to their own scientists, who produced a

report nearly two years ago saying unconventional gas could be

exploited in Scotland safely. Rather than dithering and sitting on the

fence, they need to get off the fence and allow industries to be

developed. You want fracking. Doesn't Murdo Fraser have a point

crash mark we have 100,000 jobs lost in the oil and gas industry. You and

the Labour Party are running around saying we can't have this travel

fracking. It is the most practical issue, surely, in the short term to

provide jobs and investment that could mitigate the effects of what

is happening. On a jobs front, it might be the case. We have

is happening. On a jobs front, it international agreements in place

following the Paris climate pact. We need to leave around two thirds of

following the Paris climate pact. We the known reserves of oil and gas in

the ground, never mind the new reserves that maybe there that could

be exploited by fracking. What we are: Paul as a start now is a

transition to fossil free Scotland transition to fossil free Scotland

-- what we are calling on now. We need to transition now, to plan for

a future. Transition to what? We have lots of wind turbines, we've

done that. We've barely started. The potential is enormous, and the

critical thing is to get the investment that all other parties

want to continue to go into oil and gas to get those billions of pounds

into the renewables sector, because know wind and tidal power, we hatch

and has potential but it needs investment. It is a choice about

where we that investment. -- we have Jim and this potential.

The overriding goal is a permanent and irreversible reduction to our

public goods, services and Social Security. If the Conservatives in

this chamber want to do something useful for the Scottish economy,

they should urge their colleagues in London to ditch this damaging

posterity measure in favour of investment in things like innovation

The UK Government controls the and education.

The UK Government controls the funding levers so it must take the

action needed to protect businesses and jobs. In Scotland we plan to

take a different approach with the powers we do have, to maximise

investment in infrastructure, skills, drive innovation, boost

exports and drive more inclusive growth where we can. We plan a

can-do innovation for as part of a stress -- of a sustained national

programme. We will prioritise infrastructure investment over the

next Parliament, designed to help build Scotland's future. Our

infrastructure plans will support around 30,000 jobs, with projects

across the country including roads, ferries, schools and health care

facilities. Work is under way at the Edinburgh Royal Infirmary site and

the Department of neurological sciences. The case for austerity is

bankrupt and it is time for the UK to catch up with the thinking on

this matter in the rest of Europe. There are many new faces and voices

in this Parliament and we have heard another one of them today. Her first

speech in this Parliament was an excellent one. One of the things

that those of us familiar with this Parliament -- Parliament will be

familiar with is the habit John Swinney had in the last Parliament.

In the years since the recession of 2008, Scotland has done rather well.

The economic figures were very encouraging but as time went on,

month by month, some months Scotland would do better than the rest of the

UK, other months the rest of the UK would do better than Scotland. Of

course John Swinney in the months when Scotland had done better would

stand up and take credit for this advancement. The following month,

when the figures were the other way around, he would stand up and blame

the UK Government or George Osborne for Scotland's problems. The truth

was that Scotland and the rest of the UK were perhaps slightly out of

kilter but year on year we were achieving the same things. The

problem we face now is that we are no longer aligned, Scotland and the

rest of the UK have begun to diverged and the figures are

demonstrating that each month as they are published.

I am not sure if I was threatened with losing my job in the oil and

gas industry I would be terribly reassured! I think all of the

parties would accept, or hope that they would accept, that there is

very little that can be done. There have been huge, complex global

changes and a devolved government, even the UK Government, there is

only so much it can do to fight against those, so what the parties

have to start looking for is what happens next, where do they try to

get the jobs being lost in oil and gas, because they can't affect the

oil price. There is this thing in political debate, particularly in

Scotland, where everybody has to pretend that somehow the government

can do something about the economy. Governments can affect the economy

threw economic policies at Westminster but the idea that you

can fight off a huge downturn in the oil price with a few training

programmes, when they spelt it out it amounts to nothing at all. --

through macroeconomic policies. They are all tinkering around the edges.

The only person who could come up with anything to change things was

Murdo Fraser and his push for fracking, and he was saying that

would start to build up the industrial base with oil and gas

which is being lost, but he faces opposition from the Greens, Labour,

the Lib Dems, and the SNP who are likely to continue sitting on the

fence. Will the Prime Minister today commit

to the outlawing of the practice of agencies that only advertise abroad

for jobs that are in reality jobs in this country? We agree about the

evils of modern slave and that is why this government passed the

anti-slavery bill with all-party support, we have doubled the fines

that can be put on companies for its bloating labour in this way, we have

strengthened the gang to' licensing authority and they have carried out

a lot of prosecutions, including in the north-east of England, and we

will continue to take action to make sure people are paid their wages

they should be paid. -- gang are' licensing authority. -- gang

masters. Tens of thousands of people have migrated to Britain and do a

fantastic job. Many in Britain are also concerned about immigration and

their local communities. Surely what communities need is practical

solutions like the migrant impact fund set up why Gordon Brown to deal

with the extra pressure on housing, schools and hospitals. Will the

Prime Minister now concede that it was a mistake to abolish that fund

and will he work with us to reinstate it as a matter of urgency

to give support to those communities facing problems on school places and

doctors' surgeries? In answer to the question about advertising, workers'

agencies that only advertise the overseas workers, we are looking

into that to see if we can ban that practice because we don't leave that

is right. Of course the answer to so many of these questions is actually

to make sure we are training, educating and employing British

people and getting them the qualifications they need to take on

the jobs that our economy is creating and today's unemployment

figures are another reminder of that. In terms of funds to help

communities impacted our immigration we have played in our manifesto

which we look forward to bringing forward, controlled migration fund

to make sure we put money into communities where there are

pressures, because we do need to address these pressures and I hope

we can work on a cross-party basis to do that. There are good ways of

controlling migration and one of them is the important rules we are

bringing in so people don't get instant access to our welfare system

but there are bad ways to control immigration, leaving the single

market and wrecking the economy is one of them. Today we have learned

from a Conservative Chancellor and a former Labour Chancellor that there

would be likely to be ?30 billion in cuts to public services or tax rises

were there to be a Brexit vote. What impact would that have on public

services in Scotland? Lees can we learn now before we vote what impact

that would have on the budget in Scotland that pays for the NHS in

Scotland, schools in Scotland, local government and all key public

services. -- please can we. Is this yet another reason why we must vote

to remain in the EU? What I said to the honourable gentleman is that

these figures are not waste on what the Chancellor is saying, they are

based on what the Institute for Fiscal Studies and the National

Institute of social research is saying. They are talking about a ?20

billion ?40 billion hole in public finances if exit goes ahead, these

have been quoted across the House many times in government because

they are respected. Decisions to cut funding in the UK to have an impact

in Scotland. For anybody who says these warnings, they could be wrong

or inaccurate, this is the point to make to the the right honourable

gentleman, there were warnings about the oil price before the Scottish

referendum, it turned out to be worse than the experts warned!

Now there's a week to go until the EU Referendum

and Our Westminster correspondent David Porter joins

Remember lastly, you promise me you would hold the rain back. We are in

doors, and the weather is beautiful outside. Better to be safe than

sorry. There's a strange atmosphere at Westminster at the moment, one

issue, the EU referendum in just over a week's time is dominating. It

is splitting parties, there are new over a week's time is dominating. It

alliances, and if that wasn't enough, as there were flotillas on

the Thames, where you had Scottish fishermen and other representatives

who want to leave. They were ambushed by Sir Bob Geldof from the

Lead, Remain side. It was an extraordinary few minutes at

Westminster. And as befits a seafaring nation buzz that was

earlier on, and now I'm joined by the former Scottish Secretary

Alastair Carmichael who was back in the Leave campaign. The Remain

campaign, there to get that right. Stun it is a small but important

point. It is looking far tighter than it was before. We know that in

the course of a referendum campaign polls will come and go, gaps will

expand and shrink. You are right, there's a series of polls at the

moment which showed that is a growing support for people in the

Leave campaign. From the point of our view, that might not be a bad

thing. People have got to know every vote will count next week, and if we

vote to leave, that is exactly what will happen. There will be no way

back. As someone who has been through the Scottish referendum and

independence campaign, what do you make of the Chancellor's warning

today that there would be a Brexit budget where he would have to slash

and burn? Is that project via on stilts? It is not, the Chancellor is

and burn? Is that project via on saying that if there is about to

leave, there will be consequences. He is trying to make a point about

what these consequences would be. It is better people hear it now before

they vote than they turn around on Friday to find they've got an

immensely budget next Monday and then are saying, white and somebody

tell us? We are pushed the time. Do you think Scotland will vote to

remain? And if it doesn't, how big are the consequences? I believe

Scotland will remain, I believe the Hall of the UK will still make that

decision and I hope once we've done that, we will settle this generation

and get on with the job of actually making Europe work. Not just for me

and my generation, but for my children's generation. We live in a

time when you are seeing the world shrink and, when the national

borders become ever more meaningless. We need to work with

other countries in a spirit of cooperation and peace rather than

conflict and division, and that is the choice of the voters next

Thursday. Alistair Carmichael, thank you. We are pushed for time, so I

will give back to you. I'm joined you. We are pushed for time, so I

now by Philip. What do you make by the suggestion that should read vote

to leave, there will be an immensely budget to cut public spending? If we

vote to leave, George Osborne won the Chancellor anymore, so it won't

happen. Is that a proposal or forecast? 60 consoles of MPs have

come out and made it clear we would not support such a budget --

conservatives. It stands 0% chance of success. The economic realities

under the proposal are still there. You suggesting should we leave the

European Union, there would be no need to do anything about public

spending? There are no economic relatives behind for the Chancellor

has decided today, it is a fiction, trying to scare the Scottish and

British people into voting for Remain. Most people in Scotland and

England and across United Kingdom will see through it. Are you then,

not just on public spending, are you of the view that forecasts from

everyone from the IMF to the Treasury suggesting there might be a

recession if we vote to leave, you are saying that no economic

consequences? The chanters of economic growth and hands if we

leave, because we will negotiate free-trade arrangements with other

super economies such as China and India. By the way, we would save ?10

billion a year in not having to pay our annual membership fee to the

European Union. Just to get this clear, you think the economy would

improve in the short term? Yes, funnily enough, Britain had a

successful history as a trading nation before we joined the European

successful history as a trading union in 1973, and it would have an

even more success of future as a trading nature will lead to leave --

trading nation. Let's get some final thoughts from Hamish. We have a week

left, where are we? Is there anything in the arsenal of either

side they can drag out and fire? There must be. From the side of the

border, it looks like deja vu all over again. We are in a rerun of the

Scottish referendum campaign. Once I started off in the lead, the polls

narrowed and it looked like it was to call with a week to go. What then

tends to happen, or happen to years ago, is it does galvanise the voters

and people turn out to vote. I wouldn't be surprised if we get a

decent turnout, something we weren't expecting before. It does look too

close to call, but looking at the Prime Minister, did he look like

someone who would resign next request rocky gave a good show of

being calm, but that must be some panic. It is difficult now to know

what you can do a train now and next week. We talked about you to get

more companies like Rolls-Royce to say, hang on, you won't lose your

jobs. Other than that, what can they do? They can't do what they did in

the Scottish referendum which was to come up with a bow to change things.

They can't say, we will go back to Europe and demand more things, that

avenue is close. In this sensory organs have been made, they are on

the table. We will see more figures coming out -- in this sense they

have been made. You can keep up with the latest

from the BBC Scotland News website and I'll be back this weekend

on BBC One with Sunday Politics.