19/05/2017 The Election Wrap

Hello and welcome to The Election Wrap, our guide

The Conservative leader in Scotland gives a frosty reception

to the means testing of the winter fuel allowance, leaving it

out of their manifesto north of the border.

Will tactical voting swing it for for one

Catchphrases and slogans - they might work for comedians,

but are they working for the political parties?

Have these phrases seeped into your brain yet?

It is a choice between strong and stable leadership under the

Conservatives. Britain needs strong and stable government. For the many,

not the few. For the many, not the few.

And we'll be discussing all the best campaign lines with Paul Waugh,

Executive Editor at Huff Post UK and Kate Proctor,

Political reporter from the Evening Standard.

Let's catch up on the latest developments

The Conservatives in Scotland have launched their manifesto

with the leader of the Tories Ruth Davidson, and the Prime Minister

Theresa May making a pledge to stand up to the Scottish National Party.

Part of the manifesto was a protection for

the Winter Fuel Payments for all older people,

with no means-testing in Scotland, unlike the policy for England.

We made a different choice in Scottish manifesto we believe there

should be means testing. The reason we have said that if as many of your

viewers will acknowledge, Scotland is a colder climate than we have a

different amount of housing stock and evolution allows you to make

different decisions. I want to use the money in terms of the winter

fuel payments, dance out my colleagues want to put it into the

health service. That is what politics are about, sometimes it is

tough decisions. I say I want to keep the Winter Fuel Payment here,

devolution allows me to do so. We have devolution in the United

Kingdom. We have given the Scottish Government significant powers in

relation to welfare and they make a number of decisions about various

welfare benefits in Scotland. The decision we have made about Winter

Fuel Payment is, we will continue to ensure the least well off pensioners

are supported, but there is a principle of earners where you see

well of pensioners getting help with their fuel bills and struggling,

ordinary families not having the help available. The money released

from the change in the Winter Fuel Payment will go into health and

social care. Meanwhile Labour have attacked

the policy of means testing John McDonnell said ten

million people would be hit by Tory proposals

to means-test the allowance. Labour, says axing the policy

could mean people die. Yesterday the Conservative Party

abandoned older people. There was a triple whammy. They're tearing up of

the triple lock, the attack on the winter fuel allowance and yes, the

plans on care costs where people could lose control of their homes.

John McDonnell verve. The SNP say that the Conservatives

would priortise a "hard Brexit" over The parties deputy leader

Angus Robertson said that Theresa May came to Scotland

to deliver one simple message, And it's been a difficult

24 hours for Ukip. Their leader Paul Nuttall HAD been

due to visit London and Essex..but Their leader Paul Nuttall HAD been

due to visit London and Essex but both campaign trips were cancelled

after an incident with And the Ukip leader had something

of a bumpy ride during the ITV leader's debate when he struggled

to remember Leanne Wood's name. Do you think they will stay there?

Of course not. 6500 well-paid jobs in Wales you are prepared to lose.

think Natalie is absolutely right. My name is Leanne. You have done it

twice now. We need to fully integrate health care and social

care. Oh dear, there were some smiles, but how embarrassingly.

So let's begin with Scotland and this difference of views

Paul and Kate with me. Does it matter the Conservatives are taking

two different lines on this? Absolutely, I was so surprised. It

shows how keen they are to get this Tory vote in Scotland. They are

ahead with the over 60s in Scotland, the Tories are ahead in the over 60

polling. But they felt they needed something to bring people in and

bring them over. I am astonished they announced this today, it feels

like such hypocrisy. Theresa May was talking about devolution and today

she was talking about devolution when it suits her and the rest of

the time she doesn't want to talk about it at all. Paul, Ruth Davidson

saying it is called in Scotland so it is different, horses for courses.

If you live in Cumbria, you might think it is quite cold in winter.

There might be descents from English voters, a sense of resentment. But

is what Theresa May doesn't want. She has been trying to make sure it

is a United Kingdom and she stands for the whole of the country. But on

day two after their manifesto Lodge, they have a pension problem. Not

just the winter fuel, but social care and this so-called dementia

tax. You could tell today they are worried because David Davies went on

the BBC to try and attack the line. In the manifesto yesterday they

talked about focusing help on the least well off when it came to the

winter fuel allowance. Today, they are saying they will only take money

from those who can afford it. In the middle, you have people who are very

worried. We will stay with Scotland...

Well the drop in the price of oil has affected Aberdeen's economy.

Recent months have brought signs of a recovery but what do

Our reporter Nick Eardley has been to the Aberdeen North

City synonymous with oil and Gas UK an industry which brought wealth and

jobs, but after a slump in the price of oil, some have been left

struggling. Like here, this foodbank is one of nearly 40 in Aberdeen and

is getting busier. A lot more now. It is kept going by volunteers like

Dougie and Robert and they sell items to locals. The foodbank varies

between 20 to 25, up to 40 to 50 individuals coming in on a daily

basis. This time last year we were doing between 80 to 100 food parcels

in a week. We can now do up to 150 food parcels a week. He blames

welfare changes for rising demand. It is to do with the ?20,000 benefit

on families which stops them claiming anything in excess of

?20,000 a year. It has reduced payments for people and the amount

of disposable income they have got. We travelled along union Street in

Aberdeen and spoke to a local business owner. Has been a difficult

time over the last three years. Not getting customers as regularly as we

used to. Anything what he would like? Dean Walker is annexed verve.

He is retraining oil and gasworks is to cut hair. We are not just relying

on the oil and asset to and knowing how vulnerable it can be and quickly

it can change. How is business to you? It has been fantastic. Would

you say the economy is working to you? Absolutely. On the foodbank,

those views about diversification are echoed, but John is

And here is the full list of candidates standing

Let's return to Scotland with our guests. We got a flavour from one

part of Scotland about the economy and local issues, but we are being

told that crucial to the vote in Scotland is the issue of whether

there will be a second independence referendum for Scotland. How do you

unpick this, Kate? The Tories were clever, they pushed it towards the

SNP and said, you have to allow Brexit to bed in and then you can

have your referendum. But it pushes them back onto them and the SNP have

to choose the opportune timing. I just want to point out that Theresa

May and Ruth Davidson when they were speaking, talked about the SNP as

nationalists and nothing rouse them more than being called nationalists.

I thought it was a strong line to come out with and with their strong

and stable, all about dealing and then the SNP who they are trying to

frame as this unwieldy bunch. We had this phrase from the Conservatives

saying there needs to be public consent for any second independence

referendum. We haven't had a definition of what it might mean?

No, and that is why the SNP will keep pushing it. You have both sides

trying to exploit the independent idea. They say they are obsessed

with the constitution and exception of bread-and-butter economies and

the oil economy. When you have the SNP pushing hard saying we are

against a hard Brexit. For the voters, where you stand on Brexit or

not, may not be the determining factor in this election. There may

be other issues and they might take offence at both parties trying to

ram this down their throats. The oil economy in Aberdeen, in the Tory

manifesto yesterday, was this idea that Britain's North Sea will be

decommissioned in future years. All these oil rigs could be a world

centre the decommissioning oil rigs. It is a brand-new idea from the

Conservatives. You have these voters in Scotland who don't want to leave,

but they don't want to vote Tory. What happens to them? They are

facing a difficult choice. It will be interesting to see how it plays

out in Scotland. Smaller political parties can

occasionally cause a tremor Especially when the race is tight,

and a few hundred votes can So just how much tactical voting

is going on this election. The weekly community cook at the

Marsh Centre, run by Green councillors who are popular with

eight of them on Lancaster City Council. They work and live here,

they are very well liked. They do a lot for charity and they said they

would do something, they usually get it done. When it comes to the

general election, the local Green voter doesn't always translate, why

is it? It is a waste of time, they think. They think they will get

enough votes or they just don't bother. And that is the problem with

the Greens here. Labour won Lancaster and feet would a tiny

margin last time. Do they go with their hearts and help the

Conservatives win, or do the Greens vote and get Labour in? This is a

marginal constituency so it is only between Labour and the Tories. If we

vote Green, we hand the seat to the Tories, as we did a few years ago.

And we regret that. I am still wrestling between the Green, who I

want to vote for and labour, which is the tactical vote. Sometimes that

decision is batted away. When Greens are keen to block a conservative

when they pull out of the race, asking supporters to swing to Labour

or the Lib Dems. If the Greens stand down, those voters have

got to go somewhere and if the Greens enter the competition, the

voters have got to come from somewhere, so it affects the

upcoming closely fought seats. So they can win or lose the seats in

closely fought areas? It can have that impact. There has never been a

Green MP from the north-west, but that doesn't mean they are not

important. At the last election, they stood aside in Chester asking

supporters to back the Labour candidate, who went on to win. This

time round, they are not putting any candidates forward in the seats that

are too close to call. The green vote is growing, especially in

communities like the Marsh stayed. They know there is a long way to go

before there are more Green MPs on the Greens seats of the House of

Commons. So tactical voting

and left wing pacts. It's not just the North West

where parties are forming alliances In Brighton Pavilion

the Liberal Democrats have agreed not to stand

against the Green Party's only MP Caroline Lucas,

who's fighting off a challenge Meanwhile in Hastings Rye,

the Greens have pulled out to try to help Labour oust

the Home Secretary, Amber Rudd. So, quite a lot of negotiating,

horse trading going on. Do you think we will see more tactical voting

this time round? I am not sure we are. What we're talking about, and

it was clear from that clip, a tiny number of seats were majorities are

tight and makes a difference, this could be a tsunami from the

Conservatives and it could sweep aside all the little lifeboat people

are constructing for themselves. Not enough numbers, the maths doesn't do

it. Also, that report was talking about the Green party, but in the

south-east, I feel like the Greens have stood aside so much, they are

actually not offering the Green choice to lots of people. That might

have been a tactical choice, but that option isn't even there now. I

am surprised how many people split their boats and people I have talked

to in north London, they go Labour for their borough but then Torrealba

is because Brexit. Where I live in west London, there is peeling and

Brentford and Isa worked for the Green said they will stand aside. --

Ealing. Picking up on the point you made, Kate some people say it is a

moral obligation and if you are party and stand for certain things,

regardless of an overlap with another party, you ought to give

people the right to see the candidate and it is your moral duty

to field a candidate? I agree with that and that is how politics works.

He want to be elected and push forward. I do feel sorry for those

voters who feel disenfranchised now. They don't have their usual party to

vote for. We'll have to see if you are right.

The swingometer has been a regular feature of election night coverage

It was designed to explain the unfolding results in visual terms.

What started off as a simple hand made prop has developed using

Jenny Kumah's been looking at the evolution of the device.

# It don't mean nothing if it don't

have that swing. If it is election night, there is a

Swingometer. It first appeared in 1959 showing how movements of votes

from one party to another translated into Parliamentary seats. If the

swing for example is one point consistently and on the average to

the Conservatives, they are not only in again, but they will have an

increased majority of about 35. What started off as a crude looking

cardboard model has become more sophisticated. Nowadays, it is about

virtual reality. For the 2015 general election, the BBC

transformed this room to show the Conservative path to power. It can

be traced back to this man, 92-year-old Sir David Butler. As a

student here in Oxford, he was playing around with the results of

the 1945 election and decided to record the change in voting

patterns. I have been desperately keen on cricket statistics. The war

stopped first-class cricket and I switched to looking at elections and

I played around with pasta election results. His theory led to the

creation of the Swingometer and decades of commentating on election

night. When ten seats were in, you could predict the final outcome. The

average swing in those first seats came very near to the average swing

at the end of the day. He was there at the beginning and are still

alive, still analysing elections. Only this week, he started on

Twitter. He has already got 5000 followers. As smaller parties have

played bigger roles, more Swingometer have featured. For 2017

there will be a total of five, with the first-ever showing the contest

between the Conservatives and the Scottish National Party.

If the geeks love their Swingometer 's, politicians love a catchphrase.

But do they make you tune in, or turn off?

It is a choice between strong and stable leadership under the

Conservatives. Britain needs strong and stable government. Only a vote

for me and my team will ensure Britain has the strong and stable

leadership we need. I am proud of our manifesto for the many, not the

few. For the many, not the few. Thank you very much. Nothing

embodies our campaign theme, for the many not the few, better than the

National Health Service. There must be a vote to change Britain's

future. Paul, before we go on to catch

phrases, let's pick up the issue of swing. It does muddle some people,

but it can be significant? It can, it was significant when we had four

parties at the next election, Ukip, the Lib Dems as well as the

Conservatives and Labour, all above 10% in the polls. This time we don't

have them all above 10%, but what is reverting to be almost 1950s system

Labour against Tory. So the old-fashioned Swingometer people are

used to might be more effective this time. It was Brexit, the swing when

we got those first results coming in from Newcastle and Sunderland that

started to tip us off that something had gone a bit wrong from upper

pollsters were saying? Absolutely, seeing the swing on the night is

such a dramatic part of any election, the physical image of its

sweeping to one side. I think this time it will be the swing from Ukip

to the Tories. That will be the case in so many seats across the country.

In the meantime, I feel like subliminal messaging. Do people take

those in, do you think? Yes. I am not sure. The spin doctor the George

Bush, use to say only when the media is bored of a catchphrase or sound

bite is the point when people are listening to it. A lot of people

only see political news for a few minutes a week. So if that is the

chance they get, they will listen to it. Some other catchphrases are the

best ones who don't talk at the voters, they reflect what voters

think. We have done some focus groups, and the loss of this strong

and stable leadership was coming out from focus groups before Theresa May

were saying it. It is working. I was talking to friends earlier today and

asked them what has come through. They are not politically engaged,

but they said strong and stable straightaway. They also knew the

Labour won as well. They did know how they knew it. But the message is

getting through. It is genius strategy. We then tried to look at

some of the other parties and they are not working with slogans. If you

think of the Lib Dems, the website says a vote for us can change

Britain's future. But they haven't been saying it with nausea like some

of the others. Ukip has a bus with their five pledges on. It is all a

bit blancmange from the others. That is why they are not putting too in

the polls because they don't have a clear definition and that is

everything in politics. Jeremy Corbyn this week has made Labour

finally a tax and spend a Hollick party which is what a lot of

supporters have wanted. Whether it got through to the voters on the

night of... There has been an uplift in the polls for Labour. It could be

getting through. Monday is cut off day for voter

registration. What do we know of the importance of turnout? It is

absolutely vital. Look what happened with Brexit. It was such an enormous

turnout and everybody was so engaged. 72% turnout. Turnout

matters but we still have a problem with engaging with young voters and

that is why labour and Lib Dems want 16 plus voters. If you analyse

turnout, who turns out in terms of the demographic and the age can make

a difference as to who polls well? Yes, in some seats, it can help you

protect a seat or attack a seed. The youth vote in some university cities

has a role. But there is an iron rule but young people aren't as

interested in voting as older voters, unfortunately that has been

so for so long. A lot of politicians want to change it, Jeremy Corbyn

wants to change it. Thank you both for your time and being with us

tonight. It has been a busy week. That is the end of the first week of

The Election Wrap. I hope it has given you a flavour of what is to

come. We will be back on Monday. The same every night at 7:30pm and it

gives you a sense of what has been going on. But here is a few things

that gave us food for thought. Feast your eyes on this.

Where you interested in politics when you are 16? No, just boys. If

you don't read the manifesto, you don't know what they are going to

do. What about you? Hello, I am sorry to interrupt you, I know you

are having your ice cream is. 216-year-olds eat a lot of cheese?

Surprising what they do eat. Excellent. Spent all the money...

Pack it in. Ayew well? Very good.